Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:18PM Monday January 22, 2018 6:26 AM CST (12:26 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 11:30PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 336 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 336 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis..A moderate onshore wind flow will continue today and early this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Patchy fog over inland bays and sounds and the near shore gulf waters early this morning, then showers and a few Thunderstorms developing later today as the front approaches. The front moves east across the marine area tonight, bringing a moderate to occasionally strong offshore wind flow mid to late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 221159
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
559 am cst Mon jan 22 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
22 12z issuance... MVFR to occasional lifr conditions due to low
clouds and patchy fog early this morning, then generally MVFR due
to clouds and shra tsra late morning through early evening
although brief periods of ifr possible in and near tsra's. Surface
winds southeast to south today into this evening, becoming west
and northwest overnight.Higher gusts will be likely in and around
showers and thunderstorms from late morning through early evening.

12 ds

Prev discussion issued 439 am cst Mon jan 22 2018
near term now through Monday night ... Upper low pressure situated
over the central plains states early this morning will lift
northeast to the great lakes by late tonight. Meanwhile, the
accompanying large upper trough axis over texas this morning will
move east into the southeast. Associated surface cold front now
moving east into lousiana should be just to the west of our forecast
area by around midday, and move east across our forecast area this
afternoon and early evening. In advance of the front, look for areas
of fog, dense in a few coastal locations, early this morning
followed by an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the area
from late morning through early evening as the front moves across
the area. Upper jet dynamics look to be well north of the forecast
area today as the upper low lifts away, but a low level 850mb jet
initially up to 45 knots this morning over northwestern zones,
although weakening slightly to 30 to 40 knots during the course of
the day. Mid level lift seems to split across the area today as the
system moves east, with best lift being to the north of the forecast
area, and also to the south out over the gulf. As such, most of the
mesoscale models decrease the coverage of convection along the front
as it moves east, keeping storms most numerous near the coast and
offshore. This being said, will continue to advertise likely pops
across the area today. SPC continues to have most of our area
outlooked with a marginal risk of strong to severe storms, and with
the factors noted above, plus with MAX mixed layer CAPE values today
ahead of the front possibly as high as 500 to 700 j kg and with mid
level lapse rates ranging from 5 to 6 c km. As a result, any of the
storms that do hold together as the system moves east across our
area could be strong to briefly severe, with damaging wind gusts
being the primary threat. Wind profiles indicate that a brief, weak
tornado or two could be possible, but this threat is very low. One
limiting factor is a marine layer of more stable air that could
extend inland from the gulf as the onshore flow increases. This
possibility is already noted with the areas of advective fog that has
developed across the area this morning. This potential could lower
the already low threat of strong to severe storms and we will
monitor throughout the day. Showers and storms ending with a
windshift from the west and northwest after the front moves through
our area late this afternoon and early this evening. Highs today in
the lower 70s, except upper 60s at the coast. Lows tonight a little
cooler once again in the wake of the front, ranging from the lower
40s well inland to the upper 40s and lower 50s at the coast. 12 ds
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... The upper system
that pushed a front across the area in the near term continues to
move east as more energy moves southeast over the northern
plains ohio river valley mid atlantic region. This second round of
energy pushes a second front southeast across the eastern conus.

The southeasterly push of his second front slows down the eastward
movement of post-frontal high pressure, along with placing its
southerly push of cooler air well to the east of the forecast
area. Result for the forecast area is cooler and drier air moving
over the area Tuesday into Wednesday as the surface high moves
over the area, but any secondary push of cooler air is west of the
area. The cooler air mass drops daytime highs to around seasonal
levels whilst the drier airmass helps to drop to below seasonal
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. A light freeze is possible Wednesday
night over parts of the inland counties.

16
long term Thursday through Sunday ... More shortwave energy moves
east over the western CONUS Thursday to over the plains into
Friday night. In combination with a shortwave being pushed from
over the southern plains, the surface high over the forecast area
gets pushed off the east coast and onshore flow off the gulf is
restored over the southern plains and lower mississippi river
valley. Best moisture flux inland remains generally west of the
forecast area through Friday, but a few shra are possible over
western portions of the forecast area. Temps moderate upward to
above seasonal levels with the return of east to southeasterly
flow over most of the area.

Friday night through the weekend, the models have diverged in
their solutions from previous runs. Both the ECMWF and GFS are
advertising shortwave energy moving across the southern plains in
addition to the energy moving east from the northern plains. This
southern energy develops a surface low over the northern gulf
Saturday night, then takes it northeast over northern fl. Instead
of a front being pushed across the forecast area Saturday into
Sunday, this leads to more of an over-running precip situation
over land portions of the forecast area. This is a big departure
from previous runs, so am continuing to lean towards previous
solutions until guidance is more consistent. Result is a front
moving across the area Saturday night into Sunday, with best rain
coverage being Saturday ahead of the front. Temps remain a bit
above seasonal for daytime highs, much above for overnight lows.

16
marine... A moderate onshore wind flow will continue today and
early this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Areas
of sea fog over inland bays and sounds and the near shore gulf
waters early this morning as the warmer and moist onshore flow lifts
north across the cool near shore waters. Showers and a few
thunderstorms developing later today as the front approaches, moving
west to east across the coastal waters later today and early this
evening. The front moves east across the marine area tonight,
bringing a moderate to occasionally strong offshore wind flow mid to
late week. Winds and seas generally near exercise caution through
most of the week, possibly increasing to small craft conditions late
in the week. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi45 min SE 1 G 4.1 63°F 49°F1016.4 hPa
PPTA1 23 mi57 min 63°F 1015.6 hPa
WBYA1 38 mi39 min 56°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi102 min 64°F 1015 hPa62°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi57 min ESE 11 55°F 1015.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi39 min SSE 12 G 12 63°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi31 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F62°F90%1016 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi34 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast64°F61°F90%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE6E6E10E9E11E12E11E13E9NE3E5E5CalmE3SE8SE11SE10S9SE10SE11SE8SE8SE7
1 day agoCalmE56NE5E9E8E7SE8SE7SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3NE3E4CalmCalmE4CalmE5E4
2 days agoCalmN4N54N4S7SE6SE7S7S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:39 AM CST     0.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:48 PM CST     0.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:36 PM CST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:29 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.70.60.60.50.30.20-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM CST     0.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM CST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:40 PM CST     0.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM CST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:30 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.50.40.30.10-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.