Wednesday, June28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:56PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 9:12 PM CDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 347 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 347 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis..A surface ridge of high pressure over the eastern conus continues to shift east and south, reaching the eastern seaboard and western atlantic tonight and leading to better onshore flow through the rest of the week. Rain chances increase tonight into Friday, with a more summertime pattern then setting up this weekend into next week. The best coverage of showers and storms over the marine area will occur during overnight and morning hours through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 282346 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
646 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Have updated to increase pops mainly over the southern
portion of the forecast area this evening due to scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms which will gradually diminish
in coverage this evening. Coverage of showers and storms is
expected to increase again late tonight however, mainly near the
coast. Made other mostly minor adjustments. 29

00z issuance...VFR conditions prevail at the beginning of the
period, except for MVFR conditions in scattered (possibly
numerous) showers and storms mostly over the southern portion of
the forecast area. Prevailing MVFR conditions are expected to
develop first near the coast during the late night hours, then
spread further inland through the early morning hours into the
afternoon as showers and storms increase in coverage. Light and
variable winds at the beginning of the period will be followed by
a southeasterly wind 5-10 knots developing later tonight and
continuing through Thursday. 29

Prev discussion issued 402 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017
near term now through Thursday ... Weak troughing over the
western gulf lifts northeast and begins to dampen through the near
term, bringing more numerous shower and thunderstorm activity
tonight into Thursday, especially along and southwest of a
waynesboro, al to pensacola, fl line. With pwats around 2.00 to
2.25 inches, currently expecting heavy rain to be the primary
threat with this round of convection. Localized flooding could
become an issue as most areas are expected to receive around 1 to
3 inches of rain on top of already saturated soils, with locally
higher rainfall amounts possible in areas where training or
backbuilding occurs. Stronger storms could also produce gusty
winds and frequent lightning. In terms of temperatures, with
extensive cloud cover and ample moisture in place, expect
overnight lows tonight to remain mild, in the low to mid 70's.

Afternoon highs tomorrow only reach the low 80's, albeit a very
humid low 80's. 49
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... Upper level
trough axis will continue to lift northeastward across al into ga
Thursday night into Friday, as upper level ridging continues to
build westward across the north central gulf of mexico. With the
trough axis remaining overhead Thursday night, along with
plentiful deep layer moisture, we will maintain a continued chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the region into the evening
and overnight hours, with pops generally in the 30-40% range.

Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
should once again develop near the coast and spread inland during
the day Friday. Precipitable water values should range from around
1.75" and 2" near the immediate coast to as high as 2" to 2.25"
over inland portions of the area, and will once again have to
monitor for locally heavy rainfall and potentially localized
flooding with the stronger storms that develop, particularly where
1" to 2" or greater hourly rainfall rates may materialize. Brief
strong and gusty winds and frequent lightning may accompany the
stronger storms. Showers and storms should quickly diminish with
loss of daytime heating Friday evening, before yet another round
of scattered to numerous showers and storms develop again
Saturday, especially inland where precipitable water values will
be highest. Lows Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights should
range from around 70 to the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper
70s near the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Friday and
Saturday should trend into the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. 21
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... A moist zonal flow pattern
persists into Sunday and Monday as our area remains on the base
of stronger westerlies over the central and eastern CONUS and the
broad upper ridge axis stretched across the gulf of mexico. The
typical diurnal pattern of scattered convection developing during
the day, and decreasing in coverage during the evening overnight
hours. The upper ridge axis may continue to build northward into
our forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Still enough moisture
and instability may be available to produce isolated to scattered
showers and storms both afternoons, especially along the
seabreeze, but temperatures may otherwise be trending up to around
90 or the lower 90s inland and upper 80s to around 90 near the
coast both days. Lows remain in the 70s. 21
marine... Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and
thunderstorms persist through the remainder of the week, with
convective activity trending downwards over the marine area Friday
night into the weekend as the best forcing aloft lifts to the
northeast. A more summertime pattern then sets up Sunday into next
week as high pressure builds into the central and northern gulf,
with daily sea land breezes dominating an otherwise light westerly
flow, and a slight chance for showers and storms over near-shore
waters each day. Waves remain around 2 feet through the period, with
the exception of some up to around 3 feet for coastal and offshore
alabama waters Thursday night into Friday. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi42 min 78°F 82°F1017.6 hPa
PPTA1 23 mi42 min E 6 79°F 1016.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi82 min SE 14 G 16 78°F 82°F2 ft1016.3 hPa (+0.0)75°F
WBYA1 38 mi42 min 82°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 38 mi72 min ENE 8 76°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.3)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi72 min E 9.9 76°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.0)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi42 min ESE 11 G 13 80°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi16 minESE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist76°F72°F88%1017.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi19 minSSE 135.00 miRain77°F72°F85%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmN4CalmN5CalmNW4N4N3N4NE3N33CalmSE6CalmSW53NE6NE7NE8NE6NE5
2 days agoN3N5N6N5N5N6N4N4N3NE4N8NE96N7N5NW8N44E4SW8N6N4N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
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Wed -- 01:21 AM CDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:53 PM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Click for Map
Wed -- 12:00 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:45 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.