Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:06PM Monday March 27, 2017 7:25 PM CDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 255 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. A moderate chop becoming choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 255 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis..High pressure to the east maintains a light onshore component of flow through the middle of the week with seas 2 to 4 feet in range. A stronger onshore flow higher seas return Thursday ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from the west. Increased coverage of showers and storms are expected as this weather system approaches...with a few strong to severe storms possible late Thursday. Winds decrease and seas show a slow subsiding trend going into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 272328 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
628 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Discussion See updated information below.

Update Main impact to our area next few hours will be broken
line of multicells-supercells now moving into NW corner of our
area (choctaw co., al). These updrafts will be capable of
supporting severe hail (1-1.5" in diameter) and possibly damaging
straight line winds. Developing updrafts further sw, to affect our
interior SE ms counties within the hour. As thought all along,
choctaw- wayne, clarke and wilcox stand the greatest chances of
experience an isolated severe thunderstorm through mid- evening.

The line will proceed east early this evening and main impact
will be large hail and possible damaging straight line winds.

Mlcapes in ambient environment ahead of line range from 750 j/kg
nw zones to near 1500 j/kg closer to the coast. Instability trend
is down past few hours, of course given time of day. Nearly 35-40
kt of bulk shear supporting both multicells (with observed new
cell growth on low-level SW flank) and occasional supercells
(observed deep persistent rotation where propagation forces storm
motion to right, temporarily). Latest guidance shows these storms
will be affecting our region with waning intensity through 9-10 pm
and that should just about do it.

Will allow high risk of rip currents to finally go to 'moderate'
around dark, thus rp.S will expire.

Did make some tweaks to grids to reduce rainfall amount for
interior sections tomorrow afternoon. /23 jmm

Aviation
00z issuance... Pretty much a forecast of persistence overall, as
with last night. With sunset, will see mainly stratus rolling
inland again by 03z from S to N with mainly CIGS falling into
ifr-lifr range through midnight. Condition persists with
occasional sfc vsbys at some TAF sites dropping below 1 sm from
6-10 utc. After sunrise,VFR conditions by 15 utc regionwide.

Tomorrow afternoon, cloud streets will keep some occasional broken
MVFR CIGS around int he afternoon. Light S winds with low end
gusts subsiding by 02 utc and resuming after 16 utc tomorrow,
especially near the coast. /23 jmm

Prev discussion /issued 413 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017/
near term /now through Tuesday/... Thunderstorms developing over
central ms to northern and central la within an airmass
characterized by increased afternoon instability (mucapes having
increased to 2000-3000 j/kg). Latest high resolution hrrr is more
robust on carrying activity eastward, showing a series of
organized convective clusters passing over the interior zones this
evening. A few of the storms could produce marginally severe hail
and localized damaging wind gusts. The other guidance, nssl wrf-
arw and the 3 km NAM are not as pronounced with their respective
solutions. Late afternoon and evening updates to storm coverage
over the interior will likely be required depending on convective
trends upstream.

Upper level storm system/trof axis over the mid-south to begin
the near term, makes steady eastward progression across the
appalachians Tuesday morning. A narrow zone of deep layer moisture
(pwats around 1.25") hangs back across the interior tonight and
provides enough moisture to maintain a small chance of
showers/storms over the northwest zones late. Surface pattern
remains mostly unchanged. A ridge of surface high pressure off the
mid-atlantic, ridging southwest into the central gulf maintains a
persistent, light southerly flow and dewpoints well into the 60s.

This synoptic pattern favors the development of overnight fog
which could become dense in some areas. Overnight lows in the
lower to mid 60s. Despite, short wave mid-level ridge moving
eastward across the forecast area Tuesday, east to west zone of
deep layer moisture holds which supports the potential of showers
and storms during daytime heating when instability is better.

Though, with the presence of the upper ridge and its associated
sinking vertical motions to act as a counter to convective
development, will only keep probability of showers and storms in
slight chance ranges Tuesday. Tuesday's highs in the lower to mid
80s interior and mid to upper 70s beaches. /10
short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/... A significant
weather event is forecast for Thursday and Thursday night as a
strong storm system approaching the region from the west moves
across the area. A 100-120 knot 300 mb jet MAX over the far
western CONUS will carve out a highly amplified upper level
trough over the southern rockies and northern mexico by Tuesday
evening, with an embedded closed low forming over the desert
southwest. This upper trough and low pressure area will then
advance eastward over the southern great plains midweek. The
closed low is forecast to be over eastern oklahoma Thursday
morning, take a turn to the northeast, reaching extreme southern
illinois by late Thursday night. Meanwhile the southern portion of
the trough is expected to swing quicker to the east, aided by a
90 knot jet streak, and possibly become slightly negatively tilted
over the region late Thursday night.

A surface low pressure area is forecast to develop near the north
texas/southwest oklahoma border Tuesday night ahead of the
advancing upper level trough, and move east over eastern oklahoma
by Thursday morning. This surface low will also take a turn to
the northeast, also reaching extreme southern illinois by late
Thursday night. An associated cold front approaching the region
from the west Thursday evening will sweep through the forecast
area after midnight.

A deep southerly wind flow ahead of the system will advect
moisture northward across the region, with precipitable water
values climbing to between 1.5 to 1.7 inches Thursday afternoon
and evening. Both the ECMWF and GFS models are advertising mlcape
values between 500 to 700 j/kg on Thursday, with sfc-1km storm
relative helicity values ranging from 100 to 200 m2/s2. A 30 to
40 knot low level jet is also expected to accompany this system.

Upper level lapse rates will be in the 7 to 7.5 c/km range. The
pre-storm environment will favor the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms throughout the day Thursday into Thursday
night as a line of numerous storms advances east through the
region. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all
possible with this system. Heavy rainfall will also occur with
widespread 1 to 2 inches likely.

Otherwise it will be dry Tuesday night through midweek as an
upper level ridge moves east over region, along with a surface
high pressure ridge across the southeastern states and eastern
gulf remain largely intact.

Low temperatures each night will range from 58 to 62 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs ranging from 80
to 85 degrees inland areas, with mid to upper 70s along the
coastal sections. /22
low temperatures each night will range from 58 to 63 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue Wednesday with highs ranging from 81 to 86 degrees
inland areas, and from 75 to 80 degrees along the coast. /22
long term /Friday through Monday/... The precipitation will then
taper off from west to east late Thursday night and early Friday
in the wake of the cold front, followed by high pressure building
in from the west. The dry period will then persist through the
remainder of the week as an upper ridge and surface high pressure
dominate the southeast states. Precipitation chances will increase
once again early next week as yet another upper level trough
develops to our west and advances east over the southern plains,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast for Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Above normal temperatures will
continue through the long term. /22
marine... High pressure to the east maintains a light onshore
component of flow through the middle of the week with seas 2 to 4
feet in range. A stronger onshore flow and resultant fetch brings
higher seas Thursday ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from
the west. Increased coverage of showers and storms are expected
as this weather system approaches, with a few strong to severe
storms possible late Thursday. Winds decrease and seas show a slow
subsiding trend going into the upcoming weekend. /10

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk until 7 pm cdt this evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm cdt this evening for flz202-204-
206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi38 min S 8.9 G 11 72°F 73°F1015.8 hPa
PPTA1 23 mi56 min S 6 72°F 1015.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi36 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 70°F3 ft1015.6 hPa69°F
WBYA1 38 mi38 min 77°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 38 mi56 min SSE 12 1015.2 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi101 min 74°F 67°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi56 min SSE 15 72°F 1015.2 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi38 min SSE 12 G 14 71°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi30 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F84%1015.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi33 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F76%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S10S8S7S7S5S4SE4CalmS4E3SE4SE8SE9S11S10SE11SE13S10S11S10S8S8
1 day agoW4CalmN3NE6E7SE11SE8S9S8S10S7CalmS3S5SE7SE8S9SE11SE11SE11S10S11S9S7
2 days ago--SE9SE6SE7SE7SE7SE11SE11SE8SE10SE9SE8SE9SE11SE12SE13
G21
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SE15S14S13S10

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:21 AM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:35 PM CDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.40.50.50.60.60.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:27 PM CDT     0.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.50.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.