Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 5:43PM Friday February 22, 2019 8:24 PM CST (02:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 354 Pm Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Saturday...
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 354 Pm Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue over the marine area through early Saturday night ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front is expected to move across the marine area Saturday night and early Sunday leading to a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow through Tuesday. Dense fog will continue over the near shore waters of alabama and northwest florida out to 20 nautical miles from shore, including all inland bays and sounds, until the front passes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230034
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
634 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... Widespread fog will persist through mid-morning
with visibilities and ceilings dropping to lifr and vlifr over
the next few hours. Scattered rain showers will continue to move
northeast across the area tonight. Southeasterly winds around
10-15 knots in the early evening will relax to 5-10 knots
overnight. As the visibilities and ceilings slowly improve in the
late morning, winds will begin to increase with gusts up to 25
knots by early Saturday afternoon. 07 mb

Prev discussion issued 403 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
near term now through Saturday ... For tonight, main forecast
issue will be the continuation of widespread fog which will be
dense at many locations. We had a break from the dense fog today
at many locations (even some coastal areas), but are already
seeing signs of fog redeveloping near the coast now that we have
passed peak daytime heating. Visibilities along the barrier
islands of the florida panhandle has recently dropped to 1 2 to 1
mile, and we expect this fog to continue to spread slowly inland
across our southernmost counties this evening. We have already
issued a dense fog advisory for those locations, valid from 9 pm
this evening until 9 am Saturday morning. We will have to monitor
for development of widespread dense fog before 9 pm though, and if
this occurs we may have to begin the advisory a little earlier in
the evening than 9 pm. Some scattered showers will persist over
parts of the forecast area this evening, particularly over the
western half, but should become more isolated overnight. Another
warm night expected, with min temps again expected to remain near
high min temps for the date, ranging from the upper 60s to near
70.

A cold front will be approaching the area from the west during the
day on Saturday. A line of thunderstorms will be developing along
the approaching front, but primarily remain to our west during the
day, however some scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
over our area by midday (especially over our western counties).

There is a low potential that a few of these storms could be strong
to briefly severe in the late afternoon hours, but nearly all of the
ingredients required for more widespread severe weather will be well
to our northwest. Still, we maintained the marginal risk of severe
storms for areas generally west of i-65. Another day of near record
high temperatures expected on Saturday, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s most locations, except from middle 70s along
the immediate coast. 12 ds
short term Saturday night through Monday night ... Will start off
Saturday evening with an active high level southwest flow between
mid level ridge centered over the bahamas and positive tilt upper
trof to eject northeast up across the mid ms river valley. The right
rear entrance region to a 130 to 150kt h30 speed MAX jet streak ejects
over the mid-south within a well defined warm sector Saturday
night. Given the much better pre-storm environment, shear and
strongest jet dynamics, the latest day two convective outlooks
show enhanced threat of severe storms over northern ms and western
tn and adjacent ms river delta. With the best dynamics well
northwest of the local area, the risk of severe weather is lower
and maintained as a marginal risk Saturday evening over our
northwest zones. Best upper level jet dynamics are expected to be
lifting north and east of the local area while environmental
instability lowers mid to late Saturday evening. Thus, expect the
severe weather threat to lower by and after 9 pm Saturday night.

As front approaches from the west, deep layer moisture will pool
into the boundary and coupled with frontal ascent, pops look to be
likely to categorical along with embedded convection. There is
also potential for another round of coastal fog Saturday night.

Front is progged to make passage over the heart of the forecast
area shortly before sunrise Sunday am, sweeping east of the area
by the noon hour. Moisture precipitation becomes scoured out from
west to east following the frontal passage Sunday am.

Daily highs lower Sunday with numbers ranging mostly in the upper
60s lower 70s. Much cooler Sunday night. Under high pressure,
Monday is expected to be rain-free. Under mostly sunny skies,
highs on Monday look to be a few degrees below climo. 10
long term Tuesday through Friday ... Rain chances return and
increase by Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of an approaching
shortwave ejecting eastward over the northern gulf of mexico. The
latest (22.12z) global spectral models continue to reflect some
differences on the depth of moisture through the middle to latter
part of the week, as the operational GFS remains much wetter for
our area than the ecmwf, which keeps the bulk of moisture well
south of our region Wednesday and Thursday. Will maintain a
blended approach to pops on this package, with low end chance pops
Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures moderate going thru the week.

10
marine... A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue over
the marine area through early Saturday night ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. The cold front is expected to move across
the marine area Saturday night and early Sunday leading to a
moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow through Tuesday. Scec
or possibly SCA conditions are expected in the wake of the front.

Dense fog will continue over the near shore waters of alabama and
northwest florida out to 20 nautical miles from shore, including all
inland bays and sounds, until the front passes. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Dense fog advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst Saturday
for alz261>266.

High rip current risk through late tonight for alz265-266.

Fl... Dense fog advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst Saturday
for flz201>206.

High rip current risk through late tonight for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Dense fog advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst Saturday
for msz078-079.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for gmz630>636-650-
655.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi36 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 65°F1019.7 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi34 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 3 ft1019.2 hPa66°F
WBYA1 38 mi36 min 72°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi99 min 71°F 1018 hPa70°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi36 min SE 15 G 16 66°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi28 minE 70.25 miFog67°F66°F100%1019.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi31 minESE 80.50 miFog68°F66°F93%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E4E7E4E9E6E4E3E6E7E8E10E9E9E9E9E11SE10SE11E9E9E9E8E7
1 day agoS8S7S7S9S8S5S6S5S4CalmE3E5SE7SE9SE9E8E7SE11E11E10E8E9E10E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM CST     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:07 AM CST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:59 PM CST     0.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:30 PM CST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.70.70.60.50.40.40.30.30.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:34 AM CST     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:46 AM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:51 PM CST     0.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:09 PM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:19 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.