Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laguna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:00PM Monday March 27, 2017 9:35 AM CDT (14:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:28AMMoonset 6:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 511 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 511 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will persist through mid week as high pressure continues to rebuild over the eastern and north central gulf. A stronger onshore flow is expected later in the week ahead of an upper level disturbance approaching from the west. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms are expected with this system later in the week with a few strong or severe Thunderstorms possible...occurring mostly on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laguna Beach, FL
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location: 30.3, -86.04     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 271056
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
656 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Aviation [through 12z Tuesday]
Ifr/lifr conditions currently impacting the ecp, dhn and tlh
terminals with MVFR conditions at aby and vld.VFR conditions will
return to all terminals between 14-15z. Winds will be southerly
between 10 and 15 kts today. There is a slight chance for an
afternoon shower or TSTM at dhn, aby and vld but the chance is too
low to include in tafs. A repeat of low CIGS and vsbys expected
tonight into Tuesday morning.

Prev discussion [359 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Upper level ridging will move east as a short wave translates from
the central plains to the ohio/tennessee valleys with the southward
extending trough just to our west by this evening. The associated
surface cold front will remain well to the west of the local region.

However, increasing instability along with warm temperatures and
increasing gulf moisture will be sufficient to generate isolated
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along and north of
i-10. Temps will be in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to around 80
along coastal areas.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
The aforementioned upper-level short wave trough will continue
translating east-northeastward tonight and Tuesday over the
eastern conus. A ridge will build in its wake over much of the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday. With minimal large scale forcing and
unimpressive amounts of deep-layer moisture, pops will be 20% or
less. High and low temperatures will generally be 5 to 10 degrees
above average for this time of year.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
The large scale upper-tropospheric winds will be characterized by
a split-flow pattern over the conus, with the polar jet across
the northern tier of states and the southern stream across mexico
and the fl peninsula. A more active southern stream could help
benefit portions of our forecast area with better chances of
needed rain.

An upper-level cutoff low will lift slowly northeastward across
the ohio valley late in the week. The associated surface cold
front will move southeastward through our forecast area on Friday,
preceded by a good chance of rain (though pops will diminish from
west to east as the strongest ascent shifts north with time). The
gfs and cmc solutions suggest there will be enough vertical wind
shear and ascent for at least some storm organization (including
rotating updrafts) late Thursday night or early Friday, though
forecast MLCAPE values are below 500 j/kg and there may be
significant cin. The ECMWF upper level winds are less impressive,
suggesting less of a threat of severe storms.

Fair weather will return to our region next weekend as a deep-layer
ridge develops over the southeast. Rain chances will begin to
increase west to east at the beginning of next week. The airmass
behind Friday's cold front is unlikely to be significantly cooler
than the warm airmass it replaces, so we expect highs in the lower
to mid 80s, and lows in the mid 50s next weekend (as opposed to
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s Thursday).

Marine
With a high pressure ridge across the coastal waters, low winds and
seas are likely through Wednesday. South winds and seas will
increase Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Fire weather
Aside from high dispersion today and dry conditions, there are no
other fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Isolated showers or thunderstorms through mid week will have no
significant impact on the local river systems, which were well
below flood stage. Our current QPF for the cold front moving
through our forecast area late Thursday and early Friday ranges
from half an inch around dothan and destin to less than a tenth of
an inch around valdosta and cross city. However, ensemble output
from the GFS indicates that these forecast values may increase
with time, mainly from tallahassee north and westward.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 85 59 83 58 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
panama city 78 64 75 62 77 / 10 10 10 10 0
dothan 84 62 82 61 86 / 20 10 10 0 0
albany 85 61 83 61 87 / 20 10 10 0 0
valdosta 85 59 84 59 87 / 20 10 0 0 0
cross city 85 57 82 56 85 / 10 0 0 10 0
apalachicola 76 62 76 60 77 / 10 10 10 10 0

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Barry
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Barry
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 10 mi48 min SE 6 G 7 67°F 71°F1020.2 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 22 mi48 min ESE 6 G 9.9 66°F 70°F1020.5 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 62 mi48 min ESE 1 G 4.1 71°F 71°F1019.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 69 mi48 min SE 2.9 G 5.1

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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SW7
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E16
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL14 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%1021 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi43 minSE 710.00 miOvercast69°F69°F100%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE13SE15SE12
G19
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S14S10S11S9S7S4SE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4CalmCalm
1 day agoSE13
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SE13SE12SE7SE5SE6SE5SW6SE7SE8SE4SE7E4E6E4E4E6
2 days agoE10SE13E14
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SE12SE15SE17
G23
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G21
S10S7S3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE5E7E5NE3NE5NE4E6E12

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub)
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Panama City Beach (outside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:46 AM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:28 PM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 11:03 PM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.50.40.30.30.30.40.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:19 AM CDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:21 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 11:39 PM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.40.30.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.40.30.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.