Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 12:16 AM   Moonset 10:13 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 758 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am cdt Tuesday - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers late. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 758 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - A wake low is developing near the louisiana/mississippi coast this evening. Winds are expected to briefly increase to around 20 to 30 knots as the wake low pulls northeastward over the next few hours. Winds will decrease during the morning hours with a light southwesterly flow anticipated by tomorrow afternoon. High pressure passing over the area midweek will lead light and variable winds on Wednesday. A light onshore flow will then persist over the marine area for the latter half of the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 300115 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 915 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 914 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

PoPs were slightly increased across SE Alabama as KEOX radar has shown some persistent light showers across this area over the last hour or so. These showers will likely last for another hour or two before dissipating. Outside of these changes, no other updates were made this evening.



NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Scattered showers this evening lifting northward mainly over portions of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle have prompted PoPs up to 25%. Do not expect any thunder with these as instability and lift are limited. Tonight, some patchy fog is possible over the aforementioned areas and possibly into the FL Big Bend, but confidence is not high in development. On Tuesday, a decent shortwave aloft and surface trough reflection swings through the region. While the best lift remains northwest, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly northwest of the FL Big Bend, where they could consolidate into a line. The main threat is gusty winds with stronger storms.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An H5 will be moving over the region in the wake of Tuesday's shortwave. This will help to dry things out and warm things up as temperatures return to the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and overnight lows remain in the lower to middle 60s. A weak sea breeze is forecast to move inland Wednesday afternoon; however, drier air loft will preclude any showers or thunderstorms from developing.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dry and warm to very warm temperatures are expected to end the work week and into the weekend with widespread lower 90s forecast Thursday onward. This is thanks to an H5 ridge moseying through the Southeast. An H5 shortwave will translate east into the southeast later Friday into Saturday and will give us our next chance for rain, mainly along the sea breeze. Some weak troughiness and another weak vort max rolling through the Southeast later in the weekend will keep a small chance for rain along the sea breeze again on Sunday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Southerly winds will lessen during the overnight hours, then pick up to about 10 kts during the afternoon. Light patchy fog/mist possibly may develop during the early morning hours for ECP and DHN terminals, and should clear by sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours affecting all terminals. Winds may be gusty during the heavier storms. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period however, MVFR cigs and/or vsbys may be possible during showers and thunderstorms. The convective activity should clear out of the region around 00Z Wednesday.

MARINE
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The pressure gradient will continue to relax as high pressure settles over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Another, weaker, surge of easterly winds is expected tonight and may lead to a brief period of cautionary conditions. Otherwise, light winds are forecast the rest of the week with seas generally less than 2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers are expected on Tuesday mainly northwest of the FL Big Bend, with a return to dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday. The main fire weather concern will be high dispersions on Tuesday in portions of the FL and GA Counties, which may return on Thursday as well.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The flood wave continues to inch down the Suwannee River with Flood Warnings continuing at Branford, Rock Bluff near Bell, and Manatee Springs. The good news is the warning at Branford could be cancelled as early as this evening with Rock Bluff and Manatee Springs taking a few more days to fall below Minor Flood Stage.

While a few showers and storms are possible Tuesday and again Saturday, no additional riverine flooding is anticipated.

There is a very small chance, less than 5%, of one or two locations picking up more than 3" of rain with the storms on Tuesday. This could lead to some localized flooding if those rain totals are realized.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 62 85 66 89 / 0 50 10 10 Panama City 67 80 67 85 / 10 40 0 10 Dothan 64 82 64 87 / 30 60 0 10 Albany 63 84 64 87 / 0 60 10 10 Valdosta 63 87 65 87 / 0 40 20 10 Cross City 62 85 64 86 / 0 10 0 10 Apalachicola 68 78 70 79 / 0 20 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub), Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Mon -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
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Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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