Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:13 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 927 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft should exercise caution this morning - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 927 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis - A moderate to strong southeasterly wind flow pattern will persist over the marine area through Sunday night. Southeasterly winds gradually diminish with subsiding seas during the early to middle part of the upcoming week.

FXUS62 KTAE 281454 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1054 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no adjustments were needed.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather pattern this afternoon with southeasterly flow expected to continue.
Like Saturday, winds could be breezy at times with occasional gusts to 20 or 25 mph. In the upper levels, a weak upper level trough will slowly translate east into tonight. We'll see fewer clouds this afternoon which should allow temperatures to warm up into the mid 80s and be about 1 or 2 degrees warmer than yesterday. Similar to previous evenings, another surge of easterly flow will move through in the evening and early part of the overnight as the Atlantic seabreeze moves through. This will keep rough winds and seas for boaters planning to be out in the Gulf overnight.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Ridging will prevail across the area through Monday. The center of the surface high will slide southward off the east coast with southeast to southerly surface winds prevailing. By Tuesday, a weak upper level shortwave will move into the area, and it may provide just enough lift for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern portions of the area. The dry initial airmass ahead of it will likely prevent higher rain chances. Highs will generally be in the 80s except upper 70s along the beaches.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The weak upper level disturbance on Tuesday will exit the area on Wednesday with ridging returning to the area. The forecast continues to look dry for the remainder of the work week. By Saturday, the upper level ridging may flatten with some increase in moisture noted. Afternoon highs will generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 away from the immediate coast. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals through the TAF period. Similar to Saturday, breezy southeasterly flow will prevail at all terminals with occasional 15 to 20 knot gusts through the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Elevated southeast winds will continue today with advisory level conditions expected through this morning for the waters east of Apalachicola and into early this afternoon for the waters west of Apalachicola. Another easterly surge of winds is expected tonight into Monday morning with exercise caution or advisory conditions.
Winds and seas will relax to more favorable conditions starting on Tuesday and continuing through the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High mixing heights, more sunshine, and a continuation of breezy southeasterly flow this afternoon will lead to another day of high dispersions. This will allow somewhat elevated fire weather concerns with recent dry conditions taken into account. The breezy conditions continue into Monday with dispersions remaining on the higher side of things. Low-level moisture could slowly increase through the upcoming week, but warm and dry conditions will still allow relative humidity to drop around 35 to 45% most afternoons. Additionally, widespread wetting rain chances remain very low through at least the middle of the upcoming week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee River.
However, the minor flooding will be ending from north to south in the next few days with the lack of additional rainfall. There are no other flooding concerns expected for the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 84 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 65 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 62 84 62 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 68 76 66 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750- 752-770-772.

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Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub), Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Sun -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:08 AM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:14 PM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
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Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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