Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laguna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 5:33PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:43 PM CST (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 357 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy dense fog in the evening. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 357 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue through this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to strong northerly flow will develop in the wake of the front late tonight through Monday then gradually shift east by early Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow is expected on Tuesday followed by a light to moderate southerly flow Wednesday into Thursday in response to another cold front slowing approaching from the west. Areas of fog mostly over the near shore waters of alabama will redevelop this evening then clear with the windshift overnight. Patchy dense fog will also be possible further east occurring mostly over the near waters of northwest florida through early Monday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laguna Beach, FL
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location: 30.3, -86.04     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 180249
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
949 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Cold front still progged to enter our al counties in the next
couple of hours and move east into the central portions by
daybreak. Fog is still possible especially across the central
and eastern portions of the area. Increased pops to account for
ongoing showers in the gulf and fl panhandle. Otherwise, no other
changes made.

Prev discussion [643 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
19 utc surface analysis shows the cold front has advanced into the
lower mississippi river valley and extends from eastern
mississippi down into western louisiana. Moderate southerly flow
ahead of this front continues to increase low level moisture
across our region, and has even led to some scattered showers
developing over the last hour.

Overnight, the cold front will continue to advance eastward toward
the region. With extensive low level moisture, expect another
round of low clouds and fog to develop in advance of the front.

Nearly all of the guidance keeps any rain chances off to the west
of the region til 06z, at which point rain will begin to move into
southeast alabama and perhaps portions of the florida panhandle.

Given that fog was not especially widespread last night, will let
the oncoming shift evaluate the need for any land or marine dense
fog advisories. The greatest risk area will be around apalachee
bay.

Short term [Monday through Tuesday night]
The short term period begins with a cold front moving through the
forecast area. With deep layer forcing decreasing with the
eastward advance of the cold front, rain chances will also
decrease with time throughout the day on Monday. The boundary is
expected to stall across the southern half of the forecast area.

Some cooler air will make it into our northern zones, but
significantly cooler temperatures are not expected.

As ridging aloft over the bahamas begins to amplify on Tuesday and
the next trough begins to move eastward out of the SW conus,
surface cyclogenesis will begin over the western gulf, and start
to lift the stalled surface boundary across our region back
northward as a warm front on Tuesday afternoon with a few showers
possible.

With the boundary lifting well north of the region on Tuesday
night, a return to warm, humid and foggy conditions can be
expected at the end of the period and then continuing into the
long term.

Outside of high temperatures on Monday, temperatures throughout
the short term period will be well above normal - particularly
through the end of the period.

Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
An upper level ridge over the atlantic will maintain
southwesterly flow and abundant moisture at the surface across the
entire region, which will keep temperatures well above normal for
this time of the year. The aforementioned upper level ridge will
prevent disturbances that will develop over the western gulf of
mexico from propagating eastward over our cwa, which will keep
most pop chances to the north and west of the cwa. The best chance
for pops will be in our northern and western portions of our cwa
as disturbances riding over the upper level ridge may provide an
isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm. The bulk of the
precipitation associated with these disturbances will remain
across the ms, northern al, northern ga, and tn valley.

Aviation
[through 00z Tuesday]
flt conds will lower to MVFR and ifr this evening and become
widespread and remain through the overnight and into Monday. A
cold front will move across the area tonight into Monday,
switching winds from the south to the northwest and helping to
lift flt conds back toVFR. That wont occur till late in the
period and from west to east.

Marine
Another round of fog is expected over the marine area tonight. A
cold front will move into the marine area on Monday. Offshore
winds behind this front will increase to advisory levels at times
on Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday. Winds and seas will
begin to decrease on Wednesday.

Fire weather
No red flag conditions are expected over the next several days.

Hydrology
Strong ridging will force storm systems over the next few days to
the north of the region. This will keep any threat for locally
heavy rain well to the north of our region over the tennessee
river valley. While the bulk of this heavy rain over the next
several days should miss the chattahoochee river across nrn
georgia, some rainfall into this basin could lead to elevated
river levels within our portion of the chattahoochee (and
apalachicola river) in the next few days.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 65 71 56 70 59 40 50 10 20 20
panama city 63 67 57 69 63 40 40 20 20 0
dothan 57 61 52 59 55 60 40 10 40 30
albany 61 63 52 58 53 50 50 10 30 40
valdosta 65 71 54 66 57 30 50 10 20 30
cross city 66 78 59 74 61 20 40 20 10 20
apalachicola 65 70 57 67 62 30 40 20 10 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 10 pm est this evening for coastal
bay.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Scholl
near term... Godsey
short term... Godsey
long term... Bunker
aviation... Scholl
marine... Godsey
fire weather... Scholl
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 10 mi50 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 66°F 63°F1013.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 22 mi50 min SSE 15 G 18 67°F 62°F1013.8 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 62 mi50 min S 9.9 G 12 69°F 63°F1012.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 69 mi50 min S 8.9 G 11 67°F 64°F1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL14 mi51 minSSE 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F68°F96%1014.6 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi51 minSSE 81.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1013 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4SE5SE8SE6SE5SE6SE6SE12SE14SE12
G18
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1 day agoS3S8S7S5S4SE3S4S5S6SW6--SW9SW10--SW8S6S10S11SW12S8SE3SE4SE4SE3
2 days agoSE6SE8SE5E3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE10SE7SE9--S11S13S14S10SE7SE8SE6SE5S7

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:41 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM CST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:25 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.200.30.60.81.11.31.51.61.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:25 AM CST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:37 PM CST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.2-00.10.20.40.60.81.11.21.31.31.31.210.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.