Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laguna Beach, FL
May 16, 2024 11:44 PM CDT (04:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 1:33 PM Moonset 2:08 AM |
GMZ750 Expires:202405171415;;339351 Fzus52 Ktae 170147 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 947 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-171415- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 947 pm edt Thu may 16 2024 /847 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024/
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers late.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 947 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-171415- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 947 pm edt Thu may 16 2024 /847 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024/
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 947 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis -
southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong Thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.
southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong Thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 170146 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 946 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
This evening update features a significant uptick in rain chances per radar trends and CAM guidance. An ongoing MCS over southwestern Louisiana is poised to continue moving eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours. Ahead of this complex of storms, isolated showers and a rumble of thunder are possible, mostly near and offshore of the Emerald Coast through about 3 AM CT. Afterward, we'll be watching the MCS approach our forecast area. The storms will likely be elevated given that we'll likely still be north of the warm front. Thus, severe storms are currently not anticipated, but wouldn't be surprised if storms contain frequent lightning and some small hail. The strongest storms look to be near and offshore of the Emerald Coast, but we'll continue to monitor through the night.
The MCS will likely make it into our Panhandle counties close to sunrise Friday morning, then traverse across the rest of the area Friday morning. While not explicitly forecast, the last several runs of the HRRR have indicated wake low development on the backside of this complex. If this were to materialize, then gusty winds will be possible Friday morning, especially near the coast.
However, confidence in convective evolution is too low for inclusion in this forecast update. Will let the next shift evaluate trends.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday.
In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface- based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward.
Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm front.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as Friday night, although the more significant round is expected on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures slightly above average.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A return of low-level southerly flow will get underway over the next 24 hours, as surface high pressure exits off to the east.
FEW-SCT coverage of fair weather cumulus is expected until sunset, when thermal lift will end. Then late tonight, the southerly flow will spread mainly MVFR cigs northward into across the FL terminals (ECP and TLH). Around or after sunrise, the elevated and weakening remnants of thunderstorms currently over eastern Texas will make their way in from the west.
Have included VCTS at ECP only. Have only included showers at the other terminals through 18z Friday, but will need to watch for eventual inclusion of thunder.
MARINE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Main changes to tonight's forecast is to increase the rain chances, especially over the western waters. A complex of storms will move over the northern Gulf waters late tonight into Friday morning, perhaps remaining strong. Additionally, several runs of CAM guidance indicates a wake low could develop on the backside of these storms. If this materializes, then gale force gusts could be possible as storms depart. Confidence in this scenario is too low for explicit inclusion at this time.
From CWF Synopsis...Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 69 88 73 84 / 30 50 20 80 Panama City 71 85 72 82 / 60 50 30 80 Dothan 69 86 71 81 / 50 70 40 90 Albany 68 86 72 83 / 20 70 40 90 Valdosta 68 89 73 87 / 10 30 20 80 Cross City 66 89 73 87 / 10 30 10 70 Apalachicola 73 83 74 81 / 40 40 20 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 946 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
This evening update features a significant uptick in rain chances per radar trends and CAM guidance. An ongoing MCS over southwestern Louisiana is poised to continue moving eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours. Ahead of this complex of storms, isolated showers and a rumble of thunder are possible, mostly near and offshore of the Emerald Coast through about 3 AM CT. Afterward, we'll be watching the MCS approach our forecast area. The storms will likely be elevated given that we'll likely still be north of the warm front. Thus, severe storms are currently not anticipated, but wouldn't be surprised if storms contain frequent lightning and some small hail. The strongest storms look to be near and offshore of the Emerald Coast, but we'll continue to monitor through the night.
The MCS will likely make it into our Panhandle counties close to sunrise Friday morning, then traverse across the rest of the area Friday morning. While not explicitly forecast, the last several runs of the HRRR have indicated wake low development on the backside of this complex. If this were to materialize, then gusty winds will be possible Friday morning, especially near the coast.
However, confidence in convective evolution is too low for inclusion in this forecast update. Will let the next shift evaluate trends.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday.
In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface- based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward.
Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm front.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as Friday night, although the more significant round is expected on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures slightly above average.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A return of low-level southerly flow will get underway over the next 24 hours, as surface high pressure exits off to the east.
FEW-SCT coverage of fair weather cumulus is expected until sunset, when thermal lift will end. Then late tonight, the southerly flow will spread mainly MVFR cigs northward into across the FL terminals (ECP and TLH). Around or after sunrise, the elevated and weakening remnants of thunderstorms currently over eastern Texas will make their way in from the west.
Have included VCTS at ECP only. Have only included showers at the other terminals through 18z Friday, but will need to watch for eventual inclusion of thunder.
MARINE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Main changes to tonight's forecast is to increase the rain chances, especially over the western waters. A complex of storms will move over the northern Gulf waters late tonight into Friday morning, perhaps remaining strong. Additionally, several runs of CAM guidance indicates a wake low could develop on the backside of these storms. If this materializes, then gale force gusts could be possible as storms depart. Confidence in this scenario is too low for explicit inclusion at this time.
From CWF Synopsis...Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 69 88 73 84 / 30 50 20 80 Panama City 71 85 72 82 / 60 50 30 80 Dothan 69 86 71 81 / 50 70 40 90 Albany 68 86 72 83 / 20 70 40 90 Valdosta 68 89 73 87 / 10 30 20 80 Cross City 66 89 73 87 / 10 30 10 70 Apalachicola 73 83 74 81 / 40 40 20 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PCBF1 | 10 mi | 57 min | S 12G | 78°F | 80°F | 29.83 | ||
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 22 mi | 57 min | SSE 6G | 81°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KECP NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTL,FL | 13 sm | 1.9 hrs | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 70°F | 83% | 29.82 | |
| KDTS DESTIN EXECUTIVE,FL | 24 sm | 51 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.84 |
Tide / Current for Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub), Tide feet
Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM CDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 01:31 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 PM CDT 0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM CDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 01:31 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 PM CDT 0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Northwest Florida,
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