Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hosford, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:06PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:35 PM EST (22:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:12PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 336 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday night..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Friday night..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of rain.
Monday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 336 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis..A gale warning remains in effect for frequent gusts, however gale-force gusts should be over before daybreak Thursday. High surf and rip current risk will continue well into Thursday as well. Small craft advisory conditions will then continue into the afternoon. Winds and seas will then remain below headline criteria through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hosford, FL
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location: 30.31, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 232029
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
329 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Windy conditions today will yield to a chance for strong to
severe storms through tonight...

Near term [through tonight]
Gusty pre-frontal winds continue across much of the area at this
hour, with several locations along the panhandle coast (tyndall
afb & ecp) recording gusts around 40 mph in the last hour. Given
prime mixing conditions in place across much of the region, expect
windy conditions to persist into the evening and overnight hours
ahead of the expected approaching line of showers and storms.

Caution is urged through tonight, especially if traveling. High
profile vehicles will be susceptible to high winds gusts, as will
weakened trees and lightweight and or compromised structures.

Confidence remains high on the timing of showers and thunderstorms
moving across the region later this afternoon and into the overnight
hours. Pockets of unfiltered sunshine have been observed across the
region at points this morning and early this afternoon. This, along
with an increasing LLJ streaming moisture back into the area will
increase instability across the area. MLCAPE values of ~500 j kg are
currently being observed along and just ahead of the frontal axis,
currently located across E ms W al. 0 to 1km bulk shear on the order
of 40 to 50 kts along with favorable hodographs between 0-1 km will
yield the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms along and
ahead of the line this evening. Given the environment in place, a
few brief tornadoes are not out of the question. Given the threat
for severe weather to persist into the overnight hours, make sure
you have multiple ways to get warnings, even when asleep.

Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
The upper level vort lobe will sweep east of the area Thursday
morning with the cold frontal passage occurring before 12z. Any post-
frontal showers should exit east by 15z. That will set the stage for
a chilly period with highs on Thursday only in the 50s in most
areas, lower 60s south and east of perry, fl. Lows Thursday night
might briefly touch freezing north of an albany to dothan line with
other inland areas in the low to mid 30s. After another afternoon in
the 50s Friday, a widespread light freeze will occur for most inland
areas outside of urban centers. Remember, watches and warnings will
not be issued for this freeze as the growing season has ended.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
The long-wave trough will remain in place across the eastern u.S.

Through this period as a series of short waves rotates through
it. Surface high pressure will keep things dry into early next
week. The next frontal system will push through Tuesday and
Tuesday night. It appears that the moisture will move out before
the cold air moves in per usual. The euro had been indicating the
possibility for some non- liquid precip with this system, but has
now come in line with the GFS and mo longer indicates this
potential, at least the operational run.

Aviation
[through 18z Thursday]
strong gusty southeasterly winds continue at all TAF sites.

Sustained winds of 10 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40kts at times
are expected through the evening hours. Winds will gradually
decrease through the night. Shra tsra will move from west to east
this evening, affecting all TAF sites. MVFR CIGS will impact all
taf sites later this afternoon, with reduced conditions continuing
through Thursday morning before gradually improving.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for frequent gusts, however
gale- force gusts should be over before daybreak Thursday. High
surf and rip current risk will continue well into Thursday as
well. Small craft advisory conditions will then continue into the
afternoon. Winds and seas will then remain below headline criteria
through the weekend.

Fire weather
Windy conditions will persist through the remainder of the day
across the region. However, rh's will remain above critical
thresholds. Wetting rains are expected later this evening through
the overnight hours. Drier conditions will prevail tomorrow, but
hazardous conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
Rain will move into the region this afternoon and with this system
fairly progressive, rainfall amounts should average in the 1-2 inch
range across the forecast area with isolated heavier amounts up to 3
inches possible. While these amounts do not present a flash flood
threat, they will result in some of the faster responding river
rising above action stage. Should amounts greater than 2 inches
occur within some of the smaller basins like the kinchafoonee,
ochlockonee and chipola, portions of these rivers could move toward
the minor flood category in the coming days.

The apalachicola river near blountstown will continue to remain
above flood stage for the next several days as releases down the
chattahoochee remain above normal.

For coastal flooding, strong southerly flow (and eventually
southwesterly flow) ahead of the approaching storm system will keep
water levels above normal throughout the next 18-24 hours especially
throughout apalachee bay. With this event, the surge component is
much higher than last weekend, but because the peak surge is more
aligned with the time of low tide (04z-05z), peak storm tide water
levels are not much higher than the event last weekend. Available
deterministic and probabilistic guidance shows peak storm tide
levels in the 2.5 to 3.5 ft mean higher high water (mhhw) range
between 04z-14z Thursday.

With the mean of all guidance less than 3 ft mhhw and any areas
greater than 3 ft mhhw being fairly isolated, will continue the
coastal flood advisory as currently configured geographically, but
extend it temporally to 15z Thursday.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 53 57 34 56 30 100 10 0 0 0
panama city 48 54 39 55 35 100 10 0 0 0
dothan 42 51 33 53 29 100 10 0 0 0
albany 49 53 33 53 28 100 10 0 0 0
valdosta 55 58 35 55 30 100 20 0 0 0
cross city 58 63 35 58 33 100 30 0 0 0
apalachicola 52 57 38 56 36 100 10 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until 10 am est Thursday for coastal
dixie-coastal franklin-coastal jefferson-coastal taylor-
coastal wakulla.

Wind advisory until 1 am est Thursday for coastal franklin-
coastal wakulla-gadsden-inland franklin-inland wakulla-leon-
liberty.

High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 1 pm est noon cst Thursday for
coastal bay-south walton.

Wind advisory until 10 pm est 9 pm cst this evening for
calhoun-central walton-coastal bay-coastal gulf-holmes-
inland bay-inland gulf-jackson-north walton-south walton-
washington.

Ga... Wind advisory until 1 am est Thursday for baker-calhoun-clay-
decatur-dougherty-early-grady-lee-miller-mitchell-quitman-
randolph-seminole-terrell.

Al... Wind advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for coffee-dale-geneva-
henry-houston.

Gm... Gale warning until 4 am est Thursday for apalachee bay or
coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river to
apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from suwannee
river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from
mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal waters
from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20
nm-waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20
to 60 nm-waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county
line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Wool
long term... Wool
aviation... Pullin
marine... Wool
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 27 mi102 min SE 11 G 13 62°F 56°F1015.2 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 44 mi48 min S 17 G 20 66°F 57°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tallahassee - Tallahassee International Airport, FL18 mi2.7 hrsSSE 23 G 3210.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy71°F57°F63%1016.6 hPa
Quincy Municipal Airport, FL21 mi2 hrsS 22 G 3510.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy72°F59°F65%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from TLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6E7E11SE10E11E7E8E10E11E10SE8E9SE9E6E5SE5S15
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--S13
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1 day agoNE5E7NE4NE6E9E10E9E9E5E6E7E9E7E9E9E10E8E9E13E13E10SE12E11E10
2 days agoNW11W5W4W5NW5NW13NW8NW6NW6NW6N5NW5NW4NW5N4N7N9N7N8N7N8N6N7N5

Tide / Current Tables for Panacea, Dickerson Bay, Florida
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Panacea
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:08 AM EST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:08 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.73.43.73.52.9210.1-0.5-0.8-0.7-0.10.81.82.63.13.12.621.20.70.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Florida
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Shell Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:15 AM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 AM EST     -1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:15 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.63.23.63.52.921-0.1-0.8-1.2-1.1-0.60.41.52.433.12.72.11.40.80.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.