Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 4:06 AM   Moonset 5:27 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 957 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - South winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - North winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 957 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through Thursday. A frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will lead to stronger offshore winds of 15 to 20 knots with at least widespread cautionary headlines, if not small craft advisories.

FXUS64 KLIX 061745 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A rather zonal/progressive upper level flow will continue through the morning and into the afternoon hours across our region. With low level moisture continuing to increase with a southerly return flow, some low stratus/fog will be possible, especially across southwest MS and the Florida parishes of Louisiana. This should lift shortly after sunrise as stronger insolation takes place allowing clouds to mix out effectively. Later today and into tonight an H5 impulse begins to round the base of the larger scale trough centered over the plains and Rockies. Overall, this feature appears weak in nature, but could spark off an isolated shower or storm or two. At this juncture, with much of the support being to our northwest, only our northwestern tier will have the better POPs...even then generally at or below 30 percent.

Overnight any rainfall that does develop will come to an end with the loss of daytime heating as well as the upper level impulse racing downstream. Tuesday, the region will transition to a more active southwesterly flow with an impulse or two expected to move northeast through the flow providing folks generally along and north of the I10/12 corridor with nonzero POPs. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Going into the long range, not much change to the overall pattern across our region early on. Heights will slightly increase with a 592dam ridge across the southern Gulf of Mexico with gradually rising heights over our region. Our area will remain under the active southwesterly flow, but any impulse appears very subtle at this juncture with very little in terms of POP/QPF signal at least through midweek. The broad scale trough across the northern Plains through the Rockies will continue to amplify with time.
This will help a frontal boundary move a bit closer or into our region Thursday and Friday. With at least some better upper support late Thursday and into Friday, think that this will likely be the best rain chances we have this week, at least in terms of coverage and QPF.

Going into the upcoming weekend things get a bit interesting. A bit of a cool down opposite the front is expected. The front actually looks to move through the region and as far south as South Florida (which is incredibly rare for this time of year).
The front is being driven by a Canadian upper trough that amplifies over the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley late this week and into the weekend. With a bit of a pattern change back to dry WNW or zonal upper flow, the weekend should actually be cooler and drier after reaching the lower and middle 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond this time the forecast becomes very tricky. The GFS has another Canadian trough amplifying over the plains and into the mid MS River Valley. At the same time, this trough begins to phase with a pacific trough finally kicking east from the Rockies. This would provide a source for a bit of an active weather pattern later this weekend and into early next including well below average temperatures for this time of year.
The ECM has a bit different look with a short wave ridge across the MS River Valley on Monday. So needless to say overall confidence beyond Saturday drops pretty quickly. In fact, there's roughly a 20 degree difference between the GFS and ECM in terms of temps on day seven. For now, we will lean more toward climo, which would favor more of an ECM solution, but not totally sold on tossing the GFS solution out the window as of now, as the ECM still shows the aforementioned Canadian trough...just avoids phasing with the ongoing Pacific trough over the western tier.
(Frye)

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Largely VFR conditions will be found at all of the terminals through the evening hours. There may be an isolated shower that develops near MCB this afternoon, but the risk to low to include in the forecast. Tomorrow morning, generally between 08z and 14z, some boundary layer decoupling will occur as temperatures cool and winds decrease. Another round of IFR and MVFR stratus development is expected with the most prevalent IFR conditions expected at MCB where decoupling will be greatest. The remainder of the terminals should see ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet in the early morning hours. After 15z, increased thermal mixing of the boundary layer will allow the stratus deck to begin breaking and lifting into VFR range.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Any CIG/VIS reduction this morning will likely give way to VFR conditions through today and into this evening. There could be another low stratus/patchy fog event overnight, especially the south MS terminals. Otherwise light to moderate southerly winds are expected with perhaps a couple of higher gusts during the afternoon hours. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Moderate onshore flow will continue through mid to late week this week. Winds across the MS Sound and the tidal lakes may enhance some during the daytime. Used cautionary headlines respectively.
Otherwise, winds begin to increase later on this week with SCA may be needed going into the late week and into te upcoming weekend. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 87 69 90 / 20 20 20 0 BTR 73 90 73 93 / 10 10 10 0 ASD 71 89 72 91 / 10 10 10 0 MSY 75 89 75 90 / 10 10 10 0 GPT 73 86 73 86 / 10 10 10 0 PQL 71 87 71 88 / 10 10 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Mon -- 12:42 AM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:08 PM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Cote Blanche Island
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Mon -- 05:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM CDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:14 PM CDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:54 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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