Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prairieville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:54 PM CST (05:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 942 Pm Cst Tue Dec 11 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..North winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 942 Pm Cst Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will shift east of the area Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the coastal waters late Thursday and Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prairieville, LA
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location: 30.31, -90.94     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 120437
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1037 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Update
Temperatures were falling faster than forecast and in some cases
below the forecast lows for some of the southern interior areas
between the mississippi river and the southeast louisiana coast
where the marine influences are minimized by the light to near
calm winds. Also assisting with the strong radiational cooling was
the very dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere and clear
skies. Updated the overnight lows to bring some southshore areas
down into the 33 to 36 range which will result in areas of frost,
and a brief freeze cannot be ruled out in isolated locations.

Remainder of forecast appeared on track at this time. 22 td

Aviation
For the 06z tafs,VFR conditions are expected to prevail, however
some patchy fog could briefly impact a couple airports overnight
with MVFR to ifr visibility since 1 2 mile to 2 miles visibility
was already being reported at kpql and kbix respectively.

Otherwise, some lowering of mid to lower level clouds should occur
during the 12 00-06z period with some MVFR CIGS possible by the
end of forecast cycle. 22 td

Prev discussion issued 724 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
sounding discussion...

this evening's sounding was successful with no issues. The profile
is overall very stable, dry with light winds in the lower levels
and the usual westerlies aloft higher. At the surface, it is a
bit moister due to the influence of lake pontchartrain. Of note is
in the lowest 1km of the column, there is a small slot of dry air
present. This was able to mix down to the surface and tank
dewpoints in the southshore to the mid 20s and the downtown
heliport and galliano hitting the upper teens right now. -bl
prev discussion... Issued 352 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
discussion...

only real concern next 7 days will be associated with a frontal
system forecast to affect the area mainly during the Thursday and
Thursday night time frame.

Before we get to that... One more chilly night in store tonight
with temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s for
most places north of the i-10 12 corridor. For southern areas,
expect lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Low temperatures
should actually occur a bit before sunrise due to winds shifting
to the south tonight. Even light winds from the south should
result in temps coming back up a degree or two from the lows
before sunrise.

Air mass modification really gets kicking tomorrow as
southeasterly winds begin to bring gulf moisture back into the
area. Afternoon temperatures are also forecast to be 5 to 10
degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today, topping out in the mid
60s most places. Lows tomorrow night will only fall into the 50s
and will likely occur near or even slightly before midnight as
southeast winds strengthen over the gulf of mexico.

By Thursday morning a vigorous upper level trough will be diving
southward into the texas panhandle, causing a surface low to
deepen near the texas oklahoma border. The deepening surface
system will result in a tightening pressure gradient across the
local area, and strengthening southerly and southeasterly winds
especially over the gulf. This will help pump additional moisture
into the gulf south. Dewpoints are forecast to recover into the
60s by Thursday afternoon as the front approaches the local area.

Models are coming into better agreement regarding the depth and
location of the low, though the GFS is still a bit stronger and
slightly faster than the euro. Regardless, they remain in fairly
good agreement regarding the overall pattern. Both models suggest
a decent amount of lift and modest instability will be in place by
the time the front arrives. That being said, it appears there will
be at least some threat of a few storms becoming strong to severe
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Given the model forecast
soundings and potential shear profiles, it looks like all modes of
severe weather would be possible with any storms that do become
severe. The limiting factor in all of this is whether we do
destabilize sufficiently with convection becoming surface-based.

The system being fairly progressive will work in our favor
regarding rainfall. While a few storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall, the system will be moving fast
enough that area averages are currently projected in the 1 to 2
inch range. Now if any individual locations do end up seeing
multiple rounds of storms, the local totals could be higher and
thus there is a marginal risk of flooding.

The front should sweep through the area Thursday night, though
the upper low will lag behind and keep things cloudy with some
lingering scattered showers through the day Friday. Temperatures
look to run below normal Friday and Saturday and near normal
Sunday and Monday.

Aviation...

vfr conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the taf
period.

Marine...

high pressure currently centered over the forecast area will shift
east over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will set up return flow for
the area tomorrow. South winds will start fairly light Wednesday and
slowly rise to around 20 to 25kt range by Thursday. A cold front
should bring west and northwest winds back to the marine areas
Thursday night. Gale conditions will be likely Thursday night into
Friday. Will hold off on gale warnings this issuance but look for
marine headlines to go up possibly tomorrow afternoon. West to
northwest winds will finally ease to 10 to 15 knots by late
Saturday night.

Decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: monitoring potential for severe weather and heavy
rainfall Thursday Thursday night.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 31 64 51 66 0 0 20 90
btr 34 66 54 69 0 0 30 90
asd 33 65 54 69 0 0 20 90
msy 40 66 56 69 0 0 20 90
gpt 37 63 54 67 0 0 20 90
pql 32 66 53 70 0 0 20 80

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FREL1 31 mi37 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 1025.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 45 mi37 min Calm G 1 42°F 53°F1026.6 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 47 mi37 min WNW 1 G 1 42°F 49°F1027.1 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 48 mi43 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 55°F1026 hPa

Wind History for East Bank 1, Norco, B. LaBranche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair35°F32°F89%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from BTR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW5NW6NW4NW7NW4NW3CalmNW3NW4N654NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
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Wed -- 05:09 AM CST     1.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:09 PM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:51 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.80.91110.90.80.70.60.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:52 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:13 PM CST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:58 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.21.11.11.11.1110.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-00.10.20.40.60.91.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.