Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 9:52 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 905 Pm Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms late. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - South winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Thunderstorms likely. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest around 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Thursday night - South winds around 15 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 905 Pm Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
behind the cold front winds have shifted to the north. High pressure will build through tonight with lighter and more variable winds expected. Another area of low pressure will begin to approach the area on Sunday and winds will turn easterly and then southerly and rise again ahead of this low through Tuesday.

FXUS64 KLIX 120448 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 906 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Already have had one storm move into the CWA just west of BTR and looking back to the west there is a lot of convection developing over eastern TX. Watching these storms it appears to be associated with an increase in lift coming across Mexico and TX along with the surge of moisture. This activity should start to spread across the northern half of the CWA from west to east around and after midnight. Looking at GOES16 WV there is quite a bit of lift and given the unstable conditions and increasing moisture there will be thunder and if this continues to trend up even more then the PoPs will need to be increase again in the next few hours.
/CAB/

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Tonight through Sunday evening, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern. Surface winds will shift from northerly to southerly overnight tonight, which will help to reintroduce moisture into the area. This will also help increase instability somewhat. Conditions, looking at the models, will be fairly dry tonight through tomorrow night, but an isolated shower or two is possible for our northern areas tomorrow morning.

A weak upper level impulse will influence the area Sunday night through Monday morning (beginning of the long term forecast).
Southerly surface winds will continue to advect humid and moist air into the area, increasing instability. Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday night into Monday morning. These look mostly fairly weak overall and stratiform, but there are a lot of uncertainties in the models regarding timing of the impulse and beginning of the rain. Some localized flash flooding concerns will be possible early Monday, but not as likely as later in the daytime on Monday (which is covered in the long term forecast). MSW

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

By Monday morning, upper ridging will move to the eastern Gulf near Florida. The surface and mid level cyclone will be over Kansas with moderate southerly flow across the local area. While there will be a break between warm advection precipitation Sunday night into Monday, the airmass is expected to destabilize again with precipitable water values returning to around 2 inches overnight. Instability and shear would be sufficient for a severe weather threat, with details depending on the evolution of events Sunday night into Monday. Heavy rain will also be a significant threat with current forecasts of 2-3 inches across a large portion of the CWA from late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Once the upper system and surface front progress to the east of the area during the first half of Tuesday, there will be probably a 36 to 48 hour period of quiet weather until the next trough approaches from the west. Precipitable water values will remain below an inch for much of the period from midday Tuesday to midday Thursday.
Precipitable water values then increase to near 2 inches again with plenty of instability available for thunderstorms. The current global model solutions hold most of the heavy rainfall to the north of our CWA, but considering this is 6 days out, don't feel comfortable lowering any messaging regarding a wet pattern at this time. Interaction, or lack of, between northern and southern stream shortwaves could produce significantly different results as there are large differences even between the 50th and 90th NBM percentile QPF values, as much as 2-3 inches for Thursday into Friday. Beyond Friday, global solutions fall out of any significant agreement, as the GFS drags a southern stream shortwave across the area next weekend, while the ECMWF solution is dry.

With some uncertainty in timing of systems during the extended period, will stick to the NBM deterministic numbers for temperatures. RW

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

All terminals remain in VFR status but impacts will begin shortly as rain and thunderstorms moves into the area. This may not lead to lowered vsbys or lowered cigs into MVFR status but it will impact most terminals none the less. Rain will likelyt taper off some if not completely around or shortly after 14/15z but this will be short lived as we expect convection to begin to move back into the area during the evening and overnight hours. During the overnight hours there will be a much greater chance of seeing lowered cigs and reduced vsbys. /CAB/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be expected at all area airports throughout the forecast period. MSW

MARINE
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Marine conditions will remain calm/benign through tomorrow afternoon. A system will be moving through the area Sunday night through Tuesday morning, which will cause strong (15-25kts) southerly winds and higher seas through Wednesday morning. Winds will ease shift northerly Wednesday into early Thursday behind the system.
Another system will likely move through the area Thursday through Saturday morning, which will strengthen the southerly winds (15-25kts) and bring higher seas. MSW

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 61 78 64 83 / 50 40 70 90 BTR 67 85 72 88 / 40 40 60 70 ASD 66 85 70 86 / 30 20 60 80 MSY 71 85 74 86 / 10 20 60 70 GPT 67 83 71 84 / 30 10 60 90 PQL 63 85 69 85 / 30 10 50 90

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Gulfport
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Sun -- 12:16 AM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
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Sun -- 02:02 PM CDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
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Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi, Tide feet

Cat Island (West Point)
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Sun -- 01:22 AM CDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:43 PM CDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
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Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi, Tide feet

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