Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrington, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:29PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:34 PM CDT (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:57AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 1030 Am Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..Winds light becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1030 Am Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis..A surface high pressure ridge axis will continue across the eastern gulf through Friday, but begin to weaken slightly by Saturday as a weak front approaches from the north. This will maintain the mostly west to southwest windflow through Saturday, with a possible slight northwest flow near shore at night. High pressure will again build east of the marine area Sunday into the early part of next week with winds becoming more east to southeast. Little change in seas expected most of the period, increasing slightly by late Monday. Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrington, FL
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location: 30.33, -87.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 171219
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
719 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
17 12z issuance... PrevailingVFR conditions forecast along the
northern gulf coast region over the next 24 hours. Added vicinity
thunderstorms starting at 17.18z to all TAF sites for developing
afternoon convection, and a tempo group from around 17.20z to
around 18.00z. Periods of MVFR (or even brief ifr) conditions in
and near the convection. Winds becoming west at 5 to 7 knots at
kmob and kpns, turning to the southwest in the afternoon. Winds at
kbfm will the same, but perhaps turning to the south-southeast for
a brief time this afternoon due to a developing bay breeze. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 446 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017
near term now through Thursday night ... Most of the convection yesterday
was over western and coastal portions of forecast area, with a
little drier conditions over interior east sections as upper ridging
began to build in from the east. For today, should see even less
convection across the region. Most of the meso-scale models indicate
little to no pcpn today, while global models have a little more
coverage, indicating scattered showers and storms this afternoon.

Models and upper air observations indicate that upper ridge
continues to build over the area, and will drift a little further to
the west today. Water vapor imagery shows drier mid level airmass
associated with the ridge, and associated subsidence and daytime
mixing will bring some of that drier air to the lower levels of the
atmosphere today. Pwats are progged to drop below 2 inches across
most of the area by late this afternoon into tonight, generally
ranging from around around 1.6 inches to near 2.0 inches. The
subsidence and slightly drier airmass is expected to result in fewer
showers and storms today, with best coverage near the coast and
moving inland, mainly south of highway 84, in association with
afternoon sea breeze circulation. Rain chance in this area at around
30 percent, with only a 20 percent chance for the remainder of the
forecast area. With more sunshine today and aforementioned
subsidence, should heat up quickly, with afternoon high temperatures
maxing out in the low to mid 90s most inland locations, but only
around 90 degrees at the coast. Afternoon heat indices in the 102 to
107 degree range, below heat advisory criteria, but still hot enough
for heat safety practices. Warm and muggy conditions will continue
tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 80s to
near 80 at the coast. 12 ds
short term Friday through Saturday night ... Upper ridge over
the north central gulf states through early Thu night will shift
west in response to a broad inverted upper trough shifting west
over much of the eastern and central gulf stretching north over
the north central gulf region. Low level moisture will rebound by
early Fri with pwats climbing to 2 inches or higher through sat
night. With moderate instability in the boundary layer, ml capes
2000 j kg or better, combined with dry air aloft and better mid
level forcing or lift from the upper trough approaching from the
east better coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
fri through Sat evening. As mentioned earlier a few strong
thunderstorms will be possible each day especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours during MAX heating. Gusty
straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and very
heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms. The best
coverage of measurable precip will be over the lower half of the
forecast area early Fri shifting inland over the northern half fri
afternoon and Fri evening, then mostly over the lower half of the
forecast area Sat and Sat night. Daytime temps on Fri will climb
to near seasonal averages, lower 90s inland and the upper 80s near
the coast, then a tad higher sat, lower to middle 90s inland and
the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast on sat. Heat indices each
day will continue to range from 102 to 106 degrees or just below
advisory criteria. Nighttime lows will continue to be a tad above
seasonal averages ranging from the mid 70s inland and the upper
70s to near 80 near the coast.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Upper trough over the
central gulf states late Sat into Sun will continue to shift west
dampening out over the western gulf and east tx late Mon into
tue. An upper ridge rebuilds over the north central gulf states
sun through midweek. Lower rain chances can be expected becoming
more diurnally driven due to less forcing or lift in the mid
levels. Some dry air is still noted in the mid to upper levels of
the boundary layer with better lapse rates also noted Sun into
early next week. As a result a few strong thunderstorms will be
possible Sun through early next week. Gusty straight line winds,
frequent cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rainfall will
accompany the stronger storms. Daytime temps will continue to
range to near or just above seasonal averages, lower to mid 90s
inland and the upper 80s to near 90 near the immediate coast with
heat indices ranging from 102 to 106 degrees. Nighttime lows will
still be a few degrees above average, ranging from the mid 70s
inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast.

32 ee
marine... A surface high pressure ridge axis will continue to extend
west across the eastern gulf of mexico through Friday, but begin to
weaken slightly by Saturday as a weak front approaches the gulf
coast from the north. This pattern will maintain the mostly west to
southwest windflow through Saturday, with a possible slight
northwest flow near shore at night. High pressure will again build
east of the marine area Sunday into the early part of next week with
winds becoming more east to southeast. Little change in seas
expected, generally remaining 2 feet or less through most of the
period, increasing slightly by late Monday. Winds and seas will
however be locally higher in and around isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi52 min 91°F 88°F1019.4 hPa
PPTA1 13 mi64 min SSE 5.1 87°F 1019.6 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 22 mi44 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 85°F 88°F1 ft1019.3 hPa (+0.4)78°F
WBYA1 27 mi46 min 84°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 28 mi109 min 88°F 79°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 37 mi64 min E 4.1 85°F 1019.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 38 mi46 min WNW 6 G 7 87°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi34 min W 8 G 12 88°F 1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 40 mi34 min S 4.1 86°F 1019 hPa (-0.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 43 mi64 min WSW 5.1 85°F 1019.6 hPa
PTOA1 44 mi46 min 89°F 74°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 45 mi46 min W 5.1 G 9.9 89°F 86°F1019.9 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 46 mi52 min 95°F 85°F1019.1 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi64 min W 4.1 85°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL2 mi38 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F75°F59%1019 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi41 minWNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy93°F75°F58%1019.2 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL19 mi39 minW 8 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F75°F63%1019.3 hPa

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Last 24hrNE13N3S5S6W4SW53SW3W3SW3CalmCalmW3CalmW3NW3CalmN4CalmCalmNW3CalmNW4Calm
1 day agoN63SW9SW8SW9W4SW5W3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS5SW6SW9SW10
2 days agoSW14SW12SW14
G20
5Calm5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW86
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM CDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:21 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.911.21.31.41.41.41.31.21.10.90.80.60.40.20.10.1000.10.20.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91110.90.80.70.60.50.40.20.10.10-0-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.