Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrington, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday March 26, 2017 6:13 AM CDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 459 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..South winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 459 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will persist through mid week as high pressure rebuilds over eastern and north central gulf. A stronger onshore flow with building seas redevelops late this week as another upper system approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrington, FL
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location: 30.33, -87.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 260607 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
107 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities through about
26.14z followed byVFR to MVFR CIGS through about 27.04z followed
by MVFR CIGS and visibilities through 27.06z. A few isolated
showers or thunderstorms will also be possible through this
afternoon. Winds will be southeast to south at 4 to 10 knots
through the forecast period. 32/ee

Prev discussion /issued 854 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Update... Latest upper air analysis shows an upper low to be
located over NE mo and continuing to move nne. This is acting to
further detach the kinematics and forcing from the warm sector
over the central gulf coast region. As a result, frontal zone is
being stretched and sheared (winds are a bit more westerly below
500 hpa which is given the frontal band a little bit of a shove
eastward). 26.00 utc data show the base of the mid- and upper wave
to be currently moving through our area and upward motion along
and ahead of the aforementioned frontal band is gradually being
replaced by large scale subsidence. The three goes-r WV bands
show drier air advecting into the mid-levels across our area, and
with now rain-soaked grounds will likely have some patchy dense
fog. Not really buying into a second, but brief, round of
precipitation during the late night hours (sfc front already
begins to retreat nwd as a warm front as south flow becomes re-
established). Any additional overnight isolated showers should
remain north of i-20. The current line of thunderstorms will exit
the area by 1030 pm cdt. Lowered rain chances regionwide
significantly after midnight.

With northward moving swell continuing, most of Sunday will still
have a 'high' risk of rip currents. Have extended the high risk
until late Sunday.

Just sent new zfp, hwo, pfm and cfw for updates. Also shipped new
set of grids reflecting changes through sunrise. /23 jmm
marine... Lowered winds to be more reflective of current observations,
as expecting a southerly wind flow to become re-established
generally in the 12-16 knot range generally behind the departing
deep convective line. Small craft advisory will likely be cancelled
by the 1030 pm cdt marine update. /23 jmm
prev discussion... /issued 649 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... A line of thunderstorms currently entering the
western florida panhandle will continue to push east, impacting
pns roughly around or shortly after 26.01z. Frequent lightning,
small hail, gusty winds, and lowered cigs/vis can be expected
within and around the thunderstorms. In the wake of this line,
cigs/vis improve briefly before light southerly flow becomes
reestablished and low clouds and potentially some patchy dense fog
redevelop late tonight. Southerly winds andVFR conditions prevail
Sunday as cloud cover gradually decreases through the afternoon. /49
prev discussion... /issued 351 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
near term /now through Sunday/... Radar will be active late
afternoon and evening upcoming with regard to storms. Radar trends
show a line of storms from central alabama, southwest to off the
south central louisiana coast. These storms are forming within a
favored environment of moisture, lift and instability to the
south and east of a vigorous upper level storm system centered
over central mo. This system remains in place thru much of the
night, then ejects northeast across the upper mid-west on Sunday.

The more active eastward side of the long wave trof, where the
best deep layer ascent is positioned, moves across the forecast
area this evening. The deep layer ascent, coincident with a north
to south band of deep layer moisture (pwats ~1.3 inches) supports
maintaining categorical pops over the eastern half of the forecast
area this evening. Latest forecasts of high resolution models
bring squall line, mentioned earlier, eastward over the region
tonight. Instances of damaging winds and marginally severe large
hail (around a quarter size or so) looks to be the main impacts
in any storms that become severe in the late afternoon and
evening. As the main dynamics lift northeast late this evening and
overnight, the severe weather threat ends. High level southwest
flow continues on Sunday ahead of next storm system moving east
across the southern plains. Out of respect for subtle mid level
impulses embedded in these type flows aloft, a small chance of
showers and storms will be mentioned for Sunday.

Overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Sunday, mid 80s
interior to mid to upper 70s along the beaches. /10
short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... A weak upper
level ridge over the gulf of mexico Sunday evening will shift
eastward over the western atlantic by late Monday night. Meanwhile
an upper level trough over the southern plains will move due east
Sunday night and Monday, but is forecast to weaken as it
approaches the southeast conus. The surface high pressure ridge
across the southeastern states and eastern gulf will remain
largely intact as a surface low forming across the southern
plains also moves east to the ohio river valley region and also
weakens. A weak cold front associated with the surface low will
approach the region from the northwest, but not reach the
forecast area as it is expected to stall. It will be dry Sunday
night, followed by isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with the next system.

Low temperatures Sunday night will range from 58 to 62 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue on Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs ranging
from 77 to 82 degrees, except for the mid along the immediate
coastal sections. Low temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will
be 2 to 4 degrees warmer compared to Sunday night. /22
long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... An upper level ridge
extending from the southeastern gulf of mexico to western ontario,
canada will shift eastward, reaching the western atlantic by late
in the week. Further to the west, a large upper level trough
extending along the front range of the rocky mountains to central
mexico will also shift eastward. An embedded upper low pressure
area within the trough over western new mexico will lift
northeast to the upper midwest through Thursday night as the
southern extent of the upper trough swings eastward across the
deep south. The surface high pressure ridge across the
southeastern states and eastern gulf will move eastward as a
surface low forming across the southern plains lifts northeast to
the great lakes region. A weak cold front associated with the
surface low will approach the forecast area from the west Thursday
night.

Other then a few showers midweek, it will be dry Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will then accompany the next system on Thursday and Thursday
night. The precipitation will then taper off from west to east on
Friday in the wake of the front followed by high pressure building
in from the west. Above normal temperatures will continue through
the long term. /22
marine... Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher with the
passage of a line of storms this evening. Some of the marine
storms potentially severe late this afternoon into the evening.

Due to a moderate to strong onshore flow and seas upwards of
around 7 feet through this evening, small craft advisories have
been extended thru 11 pm this evening for the open alabama and
western florida gulf waters. The advisory over southern mobile bay
and the mississippi sound will be left unchanged, expiring at 7
pm and will likely be replaced by exercise caution headlines.

After tonight, high pressure to the east maintains a light onshore
component of flow through the middle of next week with a lowering
trend in seas. /10

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through this evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi43 min S 8 G 11 68°F 69°F1016.8 hPa
PPTA1 13 mi43 min SSE 9.9 68°F 1016.6 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 22 mi83 min SSE 12 G 16 68°F 69°F4 ft1016 hPa (-1.0)
WBYA1 27 mi43 min 71°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 28 mi88 min 60°F 60°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 37 mi73 min SSE 15 68°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.3)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 38 mi43 min SSE 14 G 15 69°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi73 min SSE 13 G 15 69°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.9)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 40 mi43 min ESE 5.1 64°F 1016.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 43 mi43 min SSE 9.9 69°F 1015.9 hPa
PTOA1 44 mi43 min 66°F 65°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 45 mi43 min SSE 2.9 G 6 66°F 70°F1016.9 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 46 mi43 min 66°F 66°F1016.3 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi73 min S 13 1015.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE2
G7
SE3
G7
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G14
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G13
SE5
G11
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G13
SE10
G15
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G14
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G16
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NW3
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E4
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G7
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G12
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SE3
G8
NE2
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G10
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G11
SE2
G7
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G9
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G9
SE3
G7
S2
G8
SE2
G8
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G8
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G7
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G10
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G8
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G7
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NE6
G11
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G12
E5
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SE2
G6
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G11
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G8
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G4
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G6
SE1
G6
NE2
G5
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G9
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G12
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G10
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G10
SE3
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL2 mi17 minS 7 miA Few Clouds67°F64°F91%1016.8 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi20 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F64°F91%1017.1 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL19 mi38 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F66°F100%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE9SE11SE12SE13
G21
SE14
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SE13
G22
SE16SE13
G21
SE15S14S13S10W4CalmN3NE6E7SE11SE8S9S8S10S7
1 day agoSE14SE18
G23
E16
G22
E15
G20
E15
G21
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G22
E15SE17
G22
E13E12SE13E11SE11--SE9SE6SE7SE7SE7SE11SE11SE8SE10SE9
2 days agoE8E12E9E12E12E12E12E10E14
G25
SE10SE12SE6SE8SE6SE8SE10E8E9SE17
G24
SE19
G26
SE18
G23
SE17
G23
SE15
G22
SE17
G23

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:27 AM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM CDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.50.50.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:03 AM CDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.50.50.40.30.20.10.10.100.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.