Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mandeville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:17PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 12:05 PM CDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 8:13PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1023 Am Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1023 Am Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf today. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday. Another low pressure system should then impact the coastal waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mandeville, LA
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location: 30.33, -90.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 291501
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1001 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Sounding discussion
Some minor issues in getting the flight off this morning mainly
due to unstable instrument lock, but this was reconciled and the
flight was successful, using a second instrument. A pretty stable
looking profile at the surface with a steep inversion based around
1900 feet to 6700 feet, then steep lapse rate aloft supportive of
altocumulus based around 13kft. Dry sounding with some low level
moisture only to around 1500 ft and some at cirrus level around
29kft. Winds are SE 15 to 35 kt below the inversion, then veers to
s and SW 15-30kt to about 500 mb, then W to SW 35-76 kt remainder
of the way up. Peak wind was found at 43.6kft at 250/76kt.

Flight terminated at 8.3 millibars, about 20.3 miles up near
county road 542 SW between saucier and success in northern
harrison county, ms. 24/rr

Prev discussion /issued 326 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
short term...

latest model run beginning to edge toward the euro's solution of a
divergent upper flow event from the coast southward. The polar
upper trough will still be capable of producing severe
thunderstorms over the area and northward but the majority and
strongest of our thunderstorms look to be from near the coast
southward associated with the divergent area of the polar and
subtropical jets. Could be a bad day for mariners Thursday. The
blow up over the northern gulf and the strong to severe
thunderstorms along the cold front will both help to cause some
strong subsidence between them. This will help limit thunderstorm
potential in that location but not negate it. This looks to fall
somewhere in southern mississippi. Will keep all modes of severe
weather along with the slight risk of severe that SPC continues
for all land areas as the line of sh/ts moves into the area late
tonight.

Long term...

the next system should begin to affect the area by Sunday
afternoon and move through by early Monday. This time the main sfc
low is advertised to be a lot closer to the area with the best
dynamics and lift associated with it. This storm system also looks
to have all modes of severe weather accompany it. Still some time
for this to be shifted slightly north or south over the coming
days so will continue to mainly focus on the Thursday system.

Aviation...

as of this writing, most terminals seeing some sct-bkn clouds in the
fl015-025 range, with the exception of kmcb, which has ifr
conditions. Most will see at least a brief period of MVFR conditions
this morning, but only have kmcb with ifr. Improvement toVFR
conditions is expected by mid to late morning, around 15-16z. Those
conditions should continue for the remainder of the daytime hours.

Another round of MVFR to ifr conditions is expected to redevelop
after sunset this evening, but any mention of tsra isn't likely in
the 12z package unless it is in the 08z-12z Thursday window at kbtr.

Midday package will probably have tsra in most terminals in the 12z-
18z Thursday time frame. 35
marine...

will expand and extend small craft exercise caution headlines to
include all outer waters and western inner open waters through the
afternoon hours. Anticipate those will need extended and/or expanded
beyond this afternoon through at least Thursday night. Mariners will
also have to concern themselves with the threat of a line of
thunderstorms moving through the coastal waters late tonight and
Thursday. Another round of strengthening winds as well as
thunderstorms may require headlines late in the weekend. 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: assessing convective threats for this week.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 85 66 78 55 / 10 20 70 40
btr 86 68 78 57 / 10 40 80 20
asd 84 68 78 61 / 0 10 70 70
msy 85 70 79 62 / 10 10 70 60
gpt 79 69 78 63 / 10 10 70 80
pql 82 66 80 62 / 0 10 60 80

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 21 mi48 min S 7 G 11 79°F 73°F1016.3 hPa
FREL1 24 mi48 min S 9.9 G 13 77°F 1015 hPa65°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 25 mi76 min SSE 5.8 G 12 77°F 1017.4 hPa (+3.9)66°F
CARL1 28 mi48 min 58°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 39 mi48 min SSW 13 G 17 76°F 75°F1017 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 40 mi48 min SSE 11 G 14 75°F 74°F1017.1 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 41 mi48 min SSE 12 G 16 79°F 75°F1016 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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SW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi13 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F66°F62%1016.2 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi13 minSSE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F64°F58%1015.5 hPa
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA22 mi31 minSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F62°F58%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S6S11S10S13S10S6SE6S6SE7S5SE5SE4S7SE7SE4SE4SE6SE9
G16
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G18
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1 day agoS17
G22
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S17S12S10
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S10S8S8S7S5S5S4S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW73S8
2 days agoS6S6S9S11S11S10S10SE6SE6SE6SE5SE10
G14
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G17
S8S9S6S5SE3SE5SE4S9
G17
S12S12S16

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:04 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:41 PM CDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:52 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:56 PM CDT     0.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:14 AM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:17 PM CDT     0.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:02 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:11 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:32 PM CDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.