Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM   Moonset 12:52 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1002 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog late. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Visibility 1 nm or less in the morning. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1002 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through early next week on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the southeast united states.

FXUS64 KLIX 020856 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough is ejecting off the southern Rockies this morning which has initiated widespread deep convection across the Southern Great Plains. This convection is providing a thickening cirrus canopy which should mitigate strong radiational cooling sufficient for widespread fog development for much of the area with exception to the Pearl River Basin and coastal MS where skies remain clearer. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued in these areas for the expectation of patchy dense fog redeveloping around sunrise this morning.

We'll continue to monitor the progress of the convective systems nearing SW LA this hour, but CAM guidance has greatly backed off this convection reaching our areas prior to the afternoon hours.
Propagation of these MCSs remains slower than forecast and maintenance of this convection all the way into our areas is less likely now. However, further redevelopment of convection during the day today across east Texas could still provide some rain to particularly northwest areas later in the day. As the shortwave departs the area through the evening hours though it would be less likely to see showers and storms creep further into the area as subsidence begins to suppress maintenance of new convection. As a result, will back down PoPs for areas especially along the coast.

Friday rain chances area much healthier areawide with showers and storms gradually spreading over the area in association with a weaker shortwave trough following along within the persistent west-southwesterly flow of this longwave pattern. Impacts from severe weather and excessive rainfall are overall minimal in assocation with these two rounds of rain chances.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long term looks rather hot and humid as we move deeper into May. Aside from a few glancing blows from ejecting weak shortwaves provide slight chances of rain in northern areas this weekend, the longwave pattern amplifies once again with a deep west coast trough enhancing mid-level ridging overhead. This will keep us rain free, but still entrenched in persistent southeasterly flow at the surface which will continue to pump gulf moisture through the area. High mid-level temps and muggy overnight conditions will also mean the potential for above normal high temperatures well into the upper 80s to low 90s into next week. While not quite record-breaking for most sites, it will certainly be feeling more like we skipped ahead to June.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Over the last hour or so, have seen MVFR ceilings...near FL012...develop at several terminals. Combining that with the NBM probabilities of visibilities of a mile or less around sunrise coming in lower than earlier in the evening, it appears this will be more of a low stratus event. Will be carrying IFR ceilings at most terminals from 08 or 09z through about 14z, before improvement to MVFR. Still seeing widely varying solutions regarding convective expectations on Thursday. That includes the amount of areal coverage, timing, and how far east storms make it before dissipating. Primary threat appears to be during the afternoon hours from about noon to 5 pm, mainly west of Interstate 55 and north of Interstate 12. With the uncertainty, will carry VCTS at KMBC/KBTR/KHDC. Beyond 00z Friday, MVFR ceilings likely for much of the night.

MARINE
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Surface high pressure centered to our east over Southeast CONUS will keep the coastal waters in persistent southeast winds of around 10 knots through the weekend and into next week. Seas will also be fairly persistent at 1 to 3 feet through the period.
Overall, no significant concerns to maritime operations are anticipated through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 65 78 64 / 60 40 60 20 BTR 85 70 82 68 / 60 30 50 10 ASD 85 69 84 67 / 30 10 30 10 MSY 84 72 84 72 / 30 10 20 10 GPT 82 70 82 69 / 20 10 10 10 PQL 84 68 84 67 / 10 10 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ039-076- 079-080.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ070-071- 077-083>088.

GM...None.

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Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet

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