Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 1:10 AM   Moonset 11:45 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1010 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Overnight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1010 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots will be in place through the weekend as the area remains on the southwest periphery of a broad high pressure system centered over the southeast.

FXUS64 KLIX 010848 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 348 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

In the immediate term, we're monitoring gradual development of areas of dense fog as evidenced by intermittent 1/4SM obs at Slidell Airport and scattered low clouds building down at MSY and NEW. Highest probabilities of dense fog are situated across coastal MS, Pearl River Basin, and along the Mississippi River basin where colder waters will locally enhance fog development. As a result, a dense fog advisory has been issued valid through 9 AM CDT.

Dense fog should quickly burn off in the following hours after sunrise and temperatures will rapidly warm into the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. A solid 5-10F above normal areawide and nearing a record high at BTR and ASD. Daytime heating along with a bit more focused lift along a surface boundary near the Atchafalaya Basin will aid in bubbling up of some afternoon showers and storms around this area, but the lack of shear and largescale forcing should keep these in check and things will quiet down quickly toward sunset.

Thereafter, our attention turns to the next approaching shortwave trough ejecting off the southern Rockies within the longwave west-southwesterly flow. This will aid in ample height falls sufficient for widespread convective development along the dryline in the Texas Hill Country this afternoon and evening. Latest CAM guidance is in general agreement that this convection will gradually organize into an MCS that will propagate east into southwest Louisiana late Wednesday night. Exact timing remains highly variable between CAM guidance in how they sustain/resolve the propagation of this feature. Given the shortwave trough does not surpass this convection until around 18z Thursday and ample moisture/instability exists ahead of it to help sustain it, this forecast hedges toward this MCS surviving and arriving into our area on Thursday morning. Severe weather impacts should be limited to gusty winds and locally heavy rain, similar to that of the line of storms that passed through on Monday, but will need to monitor the progress of this feature closely for changes here.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The general southwesterly flow through the mid-levels associated with a robust and persistent longwave troughing pattern over the western CONUS will keep us warm and more humid through the long range. While things stay busy across the central part of the country in this pattern, the majority of forcing and trough passages will remain to our north through this period keeping us mainly out of excessive rain and severe threats with not much in the way of PoPs beyond Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Main concern for the 06z TAF package will be the threat of low conditions around sunrise Wednesday with the potential for radiation type fog. Potential for fog certainly exists, but the air a few hundred feet off the surface is considerably drier than most of the forecast soundings from the morning/afternoon model runs would indicate, with dew points below 15C. Will carry MVFR to IFR visibilities at most terminals, but will acknowledge that there is at least some potential for even lower conditions around sunrise. Expect any low conditions that do develop will improve by 15z, if not sooner. The remainder of the day will see VFR conditions. Overnight Wednesday night will see concerns for low conditions requiring flight restrictions again beyond 06z Thursday.

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

We will be monitoring the progress of a line of storms tracking across southern Louisiana Thursday morning which could create gustier winds and higher seas than currently advertised in the forecast. Monitor the latest forecast for further updates if confidence increases for impacts. Otherwise, persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through the weekend on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the Southeastern CONUS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 89 64 85 66 / 0 0 10 20 BTR 89 67 86 70 / 10 0 20 20 ASD 87 66 85 69 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 85 70 84 71 / 10 0 10 10 GPT 83 68 82 70 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 84 65 83 68 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ077- 083>088.

GM...None.

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Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet

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