Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Breeze, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:55PM Friday June 23, 2017 5:15 AM CDT (10:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:25AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 426 Am Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am cdt this morning...
Today..South winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 426 Am Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds and seas will continue to slowly diminish through this evening as the remnants of cindy track well inland over the mississippi and tennessee river valleys. Rain chances will increase over the weekend into early next week as a surface boundary approaching from the north moves offshore. Tidal levels are also expected to slowly recede through this evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Breeze, FL
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location: 30.34, -87.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230444 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1144 pm cdt Thu jun 22 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Mostly MVFR CIGS and visibilities through 24.06z.

Lower CIGS and visibilities mostly in scattered to numerous
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms through Fri afternoon
then tapering off Fri evening. Winds will be mostly south at 10
to 20 knots through Fri afternoon, gradually diminishing to
around 10 knots Fri evening. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 1135 pm cdt Thu jun 22 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update...

late evening surface analysis shows the surface low associated with
cindy's remains spinning across southern arkansas between EL dorado
and little rock. Water vapor imagery over the past several hours
shows the deep moisture plume associated with the system is
continuing to be pinched off by an upper low retrograding toward the
yucatan.

Short range ensembles indicate the deepest values of moisture
transport will gradually shift westward into mississippi through
Friday, as the mid-level portion of the storm heads across the
arklatex. All-in-all, expect convective coverage rain rates to
decrease slightly over the region heading into Friday. Additional
rainfall amounts up to 3 inches will remain possible overall, with
higher totals possible in the heavier downpours and in places where
the convection trains. Given the high rainfall totals we've seen
since Tuesday, i've made no changes to the flash flood watch.

Inundation along coastal areas will remain a problem heading into
Friday morning. Even though we've recovered a bit from this morning,
long period swells continue and a check of tidal gauges across
the region show water levels remain between 1 and 3 feet above
predicted mllw levels. I cancelled the coastal flood warning for
mobile and baldwin counties earlier this evening and replaced it
with a coastal flood advisory. Tidal gauges will continue to be
monitored, and it's possible that we may need to reissue the
coastal flood warning prior to sunrise. Butts
prev discussion... Issued 622 pm cdt Thu jun 22 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Gradually improving conditions are expected over
the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast
between 10 and 15 knots but gusts into the 20s are expected to
decrease with time into the overnight period. Ceilings will
continue at mostly MVFR levels through Friday. Visibility will be
vfr except lower in and around showers. 05 rr
prev discussion... Issued 409 pm cdt Thu jun 22 2017
near term now through Friday ... For tonight, large cyclonic
gyre associated with the weakening remnants of tropical cyclone
cindy was centered over the central state borders of tx la today.

Well east of cindy's large scale circulation, a narrow plume of
deep tropical moisture was aligned north to south from the central
gulf coast to way down across the gulf of tehuantepec.

Forecasters have noted that a deep layer ridge positioned over the
southwest atlantic has been building west, causing the plume to
shrink and will begin to take on a northeast to southwest
orientation from the tennessee river valley to off the la coast
tonight. Considering these trends and some lowering in amount of
deep moisture, have backed off the flash flood threat to limited
east of i-65 while maintaining an elevated threat west of the
interstate. Take note, given antecedent soil moisture to capacity,
any additional heavy rains will easily lead to runoff bring
flooding problems.

The majority of the impacts will continue across the coastal zones
and offshore tonight. Strong south winds maintain high seas, long
period swell results in large breakers, coastal flooding, minor
beach erosion and a risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip
currents. Also, a few tornadoes remain possible through this
evening.

As the pressure gradient force begins to relax over the
coastal zones tonight, southerly wind speeds are forecast to fall
below wind advisory criteria after 6 pm and an extension is not
expected to be required. As far as coastal flood warnings, an
extension is made to mobile and baldwin counties thru 1 am Friday
followed by an advisory through remainder of the day. East over the
northwest florida panhandle, coastal flood advisories remain in
effect thru Friday. No changes made to rip current and high surf
impacts. Please see products issued by the WFO mobile on site
specific forecasts impact discussions. 10
for Friday, the remnant low of cindy is expected to be located
near east central arkansas Friday morning and moves east-
northeastward to central tennessee during the day. As this occurs,
a cold front located over the eastern plains Friday morning moves
to the mid mississippi river valley Friday afternoon, nearly
merging with cindy's remnant low in the process. The axis of an
anomalously high moisture plume is expected to have shifted to
near the western periphery of the forecast area Friday morning and
remains generally in this position through the day. Precipitable
water values during the day will range from around 1.5 inches over
the easternmost portion to 2.0-2.25 inches generally along and
west of i-65.

The entire forecast area is essentially water-logged and extremely
vulnerable to additional rainfall which could result in flash
flooding. Very little, if any, precipitable is expected over the
eastern portion of the area on Friday, but additional amounts of 1
to 2 inches can occur over the western portion of the area with
locally higher amounts, mainly over southeast mississippi and
interior southwest alabama, which will fall on completely saturated
soils. Considering this, have continued the flash flood watch for
stone, george, perry, greene and wayne counties in southeast
mississippi and washington and choctaw counties in southwest alabama
through Friday. Have gone with likely pops in the flash flood watch
area tapering to slight chance pops over part of south central
alabama and the western florida panhandle.

Winds will be a bit breezy over the area on Friday, up to 15 to
20 mph, but look to remain below wind advisory criteria. With long
period swell continuing to impact the area through Friday, will
continue with a high risk of rip currents and heavy surf through
the day on Friday. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect for
beaches through Friday. 29
short term Friday night through Sunday night ... The cold front
near the mid mississippi river valley early Friday evening
advances into the gulf coastal states and eastern states later
Friday night, merging with the remnant low of cindy over the east
central states in the process. A broad longwave trof over the
central states slowly shifts into the eastern states through
Sunday night, while the cold front continues slowly southward
through the forecast area to near the coast Saturday into Saturday
night where it lingers until moving offshore Sunday night. With
the slow advance of the upper trof, the highest values of deep
layer moisture over the western and central portion of the area
(precipitable water values of 2.0-2.25 inches) shift from mainly
along and west of i-65 to across the entire area. With abundant
deep layer moisture combined with the slow moving frontal boundary
and saturated soil conditions, there is a potential for flash
flooding for much of the area mainly on Saturday into Saturday
night, and possibly continuing into Sunday. Have held off on
extending expanding the flash flood watch during this period for
now but will need to closely monitor on subsequent shifts. Have
gone with likely pops for most of the area on Saturday then good
chance pops follow for Sunday, tapering to chance or possibly
slight chance Sunday night. 29
long term Monday through Thursday ... The broad longwave trof
over the eastern states weakens and moves off into the western
atlantic on Wednesday, while the cold front continues further
south into the gulf. Will have chance pops on Monday, but lower
pops will probably ultimately be needed, depending on how far into
the gulf the front manages to go. Pops otherwise taper off
through Wednesday to slight chance near the coast and dry further
inland. Chance pops return on Thursday as a return flow sets up
over the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s on Monday
then trend to mid to possibly upper 80s by Thursday. Lows Monday
night and Wednesday night range from the mid 60s inland to the
lower 70s at the coast, except for a bit cooler Tuesday night
with lower 60s inland ranging to near 70 at the coast. 29
marine... A small craft advisory remains in effect for the bay
waters until 4 am Friday and until 10 am Friday for the remainder
of the marine area as a strong southerly flow gradually subsides.

A cold front meanwhile approaches from the north and moves through
the marine area Sunday night with a light to moderate
northeasterly flow in the wake of the front. 29

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Flash flood watch through Friday evening for alz051-052.

Flash flood watch until 1 am cdt Friday for alz053-261-263-265.

High rip current risk through Friday evening for alz265-266.

High surf advisory until 7 pm cdt Friday for alz265-266.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm cdt Friday for alz263>266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for flz202-204-206.

High surf advisory until 7 pm cdt Friday for flz202-204-206.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm cdt Friday for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Flash flood watch through Friday evening for msz067-075-076-078-
079.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt Friday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt Friday for gmz630-633>635.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 5 mi46 min 80°F 80°F1014.2 hPa
PPTA1 21 mi46 min S 8.9 80°F 1013.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi86 min S 16 G 19 80°F 80°F5 ft1013.3 hPa (-0.7)78°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 35 mi46 min S 15
WBYA1 36 mi46 min 78°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 46 mi76 min S 20 80°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.3)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 46 mi46 min S 20 G 22 80°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 47 mi46 min SSE 15 80°F 1012.9 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 49 mi76 min S 18 G 21 80°F 1013.1 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL8 mi20 minS 11 miOvercast80°F75°F87%1014.3 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL9 mi23 minS 108.00 miOvercast80°F75°F87%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE20
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2 days agoNE4NE6--NE3--E10E15NE10NE11NE14NE16NE14NE12E16NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:06 AM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM CDT     New Moon
Fri -- 10:17 PM CDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-00.20.40.60.91.11.41.61.81.921.91.81.61.30.90.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM CDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM CDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:32 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.20.40.60.81.11.31.51.61.81.81.71.61.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.