Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Breeze, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:17PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 6:57 AM CST (12:57 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:201901222200;;741511 Fzus54 Kmob 220958 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 358 Am Cst Tue Jan 22 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-222200- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming southwest 25 to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Friday..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Friday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 358 Am Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will continue through early Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late Wednesday afternoon and evening leading to moderate to strong northerly wind flow through early Thursday. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected ahead and along the front with the best coverage occurring Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. A light to moderate northerly flow will continue through Friday night, becoming east then southeast on Saturday as high pressure over the region to shifts east.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Breeze, FL
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location: 30.34, -87.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 221204 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
604 am cst Tue jan 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... Expect mostly MVFR CIGS through 23.06z followed by
MVFR CIGS and visibilities through 23.12z. Lower CIGS mostly in
low cumulus through 23.06z followed by low CU and stratus with
some patchy fog through 23.12z. Winds will be east to southeast at
10 to 15 knots with gusts to the around 20 knots or slightly
higher through 23.12z. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 454 am cst Tue jan 22 2019
near term now through Tuesday night ... A weak upper ridge of high
pressure that moved over the north central gulf coast region yesterday
will move well east of the region later today and tonight in
response to a deepening upper trough of low pressure approaching
from the west. This upper system will move from the rockies and sw
conus to the central plains states and west tx by early wed
morning. Near the surface high pressure over much of the eastern
conus will shift east to the western atlantic by early wed
morning combined with a developing surface low tracking northeast
over the central plains and upper ms river valley. With this
pattern surface winds along the northern gulf coast will shift
east then southeast and build through tonight as the pres temp
gradient increases between the two systems mentioned above. Model
soundings depict deeper moisture eventually moving across the
region this evening and overnight leading to increased rain
chances for most locations this evening and overnight. Earlier in
the period weak overrunning or isentropic upglide west of the
ridge allows for some light to moderate rain to develop with the
best coverage occurring over southeast ms and western parts of
southwest al, or generally west of the i-65 corridor this
afternoon. Little to no surface based instability is noted through
tonight leading to mainly showers through the near term period.

Some elevated thunderstorms may begin to emerge over the near
shore waters of ms al by early Wed morning shortly before sunrise
as better surface based instability is noted over the northern
gulf. Through tonight there will be no threat of severe weather or
flooding.

With this pattern warmer temps can be expected compared to the last
couple of days. Highs today will climb to the mid to upper 50s for
most inland areas, generally north of the i-10 corridor and the
lower to middle 60s further south stretching to the immediate coast.

Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 50s generally over
the northern half of the forecast area, and the upper 50s to lower
60s further south stretching to the immediate cast. 32 ee
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... High rain chances
will continue on Wednesday as a cold front moves east across the
area. Isentropic lift out ahead of the front will result in
scattered to numerous showers and storms out ahead of the front,
with a more solid line of showers and storms developing along the
front and moving west to east across the region during the day on
Wednesday. There remains a near 100 percent chance for rain across
the entire area as the front moves through on Wednesday. The front
will be nearing the eastern border of our forecast area by early
Wednesday evening, with showers and storms ending from west to
east across the area overnight. We will monitor a small portion of
our coast, specifically the western florida panhandle, for what
appears to be a small potential for strong to marginally severe
storms with the passage of the front, but for now most models
indicate the greatest instability to remain off the coast and out
over the gulf. Still, as a warm front lifts inland early Wednesday
in advance of the approaching cold front, models do indicate
possibility of a 40 to 50 knot low level jet. We will monitor the
next several model runs to see if it looks like we will get a
little more instability onshore Wednesday afternoon as the front
moves through. Cold, dry high pressure will build into the region
Thursday and Thursday night with winds diminishing and becoming
more northerly once again. Daytime highs on Wednesday reaching the
mid to upper 60s with the southerly flow as the front approaches,
but only rising into the lower 50s on Thursday in the wake of the
front. Lows both Wednesday and Thursday nights primarily in the
30s. 12 ds
long term Friday through Monday ... Conditions will remain dry
with below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday as high
pressure drifts east across our area. Will carry a slight, 20
percent pop for Saturday night and Sunday as models are indicating
weak shortwave energy aloft dropping around the base of a large
upper trof, providing some weak forcing. However the airmass will
still be very dry and models disagree somewhat with this, and this
precipitation is very uncertain at this time. Expect dry and
cool cold conditions again on Monday. Highs in the 50s through the
period, which will generally be around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal highs. Nighttime lows mainly in the 30s, except lower 40s
along the coast. Coldest night in the long term period is expected
to be Friday night, when temps will range from the upper 20s
across interior areas north of i-10, to the low to mid 30s along
the i-10 corridor and upper 30s to near 40 at the beaches. 12 ds
marine... A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will
continue through early Wed ahead of a strong cold front approaching
from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late
wed afternoon and evening leading to a moderate to strong northerly
wind flow through early thu. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead and along the front with the best coverage occurring wed
afternoon and Wed evening. A light to moderate northerly flow will
continue through Fri night, becoming east then southeast on Sat as
high pressure over the region begins to shifts east. Small craft
advisories remain in effect for the open gulf waters of al and nwfl
out to 60 nm including lower mobile bay and the ms sound east of
pascagoula through early thu. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Thursday morning for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday morning for flz202-204-
206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 5 mi57 min ESE 8 G 14 47°F 54°F1026.3 hPa (+0.4)
PPTA1 21 mi57 min 1025.4 hPa (-0.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi47 min SE 18 G 21 63°F 1025.4 hPa52°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 35 mi87 min ENE 13 47°F 1024.7 hPa
WBYA1 36 mi57 min 54°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi72 min 46°F 1025 hPa41°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 46 mi57 min SE 21 G 24 61°F 1024.3 hPa (-0.6)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 46 mi87 min NE 17 47°F 1024 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 47 mi57 min E 7 45°F 1026.4 hPa (+0.7)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 49 mi57 min SE 17 G 18 60°F 1024.3 hPa (-0.6)50°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL8 mi61 minENE 1310.00 miOvercast48°F45°F89%1026 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL9 mi64 minE 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast47°F41°F80%1026.5 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE9NE10N8NE9N5NE7--6E6CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmNE8E7E8NE10NE8SE13NE8E15NE13
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N9N8NW4NW5N6N5N9N6N4N5N5N6N5N6N5
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Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:05 AM CST     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:13 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.310.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.4-0.200.20.50.70.91.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:44 AM CST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:13 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:20 PM CST     1.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.60.30-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.911.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.