Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Breeze, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:03PM Thursday March 23, 2017 1:17 AM CDT (06:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:46AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1029 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Friday..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southeast 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1029 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis..An area of high pressure will move from the great lakes to off the east coast while an area of low pressure strengthens over the plains by the end of the week. As a result, a moderate to strong onshore flow along with increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Breeze, FL
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location: 30.34, -87.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230531 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1231 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...VFR conditions overnight will become MVFR during
the day on Thursday. Light northerly winds tonight shift
to southeasterly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots Thursday
morning and afternoon. /13

Prev discussion /issued 632 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Only few to scattered high clouds andVFR
conditions expected overnight before increased cloud cover with
vfr to potentially MVFR ceilings overspreads the area from the
east, generally after sunrise. Light northerly winds tonight shift
to southeasterly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots Thursday
morning and afternoon. /49
prev discussion... /issued 425 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017/
near term /now through Thursday/... With an upper trough over
the northeast swinging away to the east and another moving onshore
over the southwest, an upper ridge over the plains gets moved east
to over the mississippi river by Thursday evening. Surface high
pressure centered over the great lakes gets pushed southeast, to
off the delmarva/carolina coast by Thursday evening. With increasing
subsidence from the approaching upper ridge, temps above seasonal
expected to continue, but Thursday not quite as warm as today.

The problems lies in a weak front getting pushed over eastern
portions of the forecast area today into tonight, stalling, then
beginning to wash out Thursday. For tonight, the northerly flow
brings in a bit cooler air and overnight lows ranging from low 50s
north to around 60 along the immediate coast. Tomorrow sees the
greatest affect from lingering clouds over eastern portions of the
forecast no rain is expected, but the increase cloudiness into
Thursday will help to limit daytime heating, leaving an west-east
gradient across the forecast area for high temps, even with the
approaching upper ridge. Highs ranging from mid 70s east to low
80s west. 16/sam
short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/... Ridging
surface and aloft continues over forecast area Thursday night
through Friday. With the surface high centered off to our north
and east, a low level southeasterly flow will be bringing
increased moisture into the area through the period. Upper ridge
axis moves east of the forecast area by Friday afternoon, with mid
level flow also becoming southeast to south by late Friday and the
early part of the weekend. A well defined mid/upper low pressure
area develops over the plains states by Friday afternoon and moves
slowly east-northeast toward the great lakes region by the end of
the period, with associated upper trof becoming slightly
negatively tilted as it moves east across our area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Model data shows some 500mb shortwave
energy moving across our area late Saturday afternoon and evening,
and will likely have a line of showers or storms moving east
across the region during that timeframe, and we have maintained
the good chance to likely pops for Saturday. The 12z operational
gfs and ECMWF still remain in general agreement that we will have
sufficient instability (800-900 j/kg mlcape) with shear (25-35
knots of 850 mb flow and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity,
0-3km). Potential for some strong to marginally severe storms
over the forecast area Saturday, but still rather minimal looking
for our area at this time. SPC day 4 outlook at 15% severe
potential for our CWA on Saturday, and we believe if that
potential will be there it will likely be over our western and
northern counties on Saturday afternoon. We will continue to
monitor and mention the possibility of a few strong to severe
storms in the hazardous weather outlook. With cloud cover,
increasing precipitation chances and higher dewpoints, look for
temps to moderate somewhat though still remain slightly above
normal. Highs in the 70s each day, lows generally around 60 each
night. 12/ds
long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... Brief high pressure
rebuilds over the region Sunday and Monday, but another fast
moving frontal system likely to move east across the area Monday
night and Tuesday. Somewhat unsettled pattern through the long
term period with isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms. Warmer again especially in the
daytime, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Nighttime
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. 12/ds
marine... A weak front will move south to near the coast tonight
and stall, bringing northeasterly flow. As a surface high moves
from the great lakes to off the east coast, flow over local coastal
waters shifts to southeast and with a tightening gradient becomes
moderate to strong. A small craft advisory will be in effect for
much of the marine area from 4pm Thursday to 1am Saturday. The
onshore flow remains a moderate to strong through late weekend
and into the coming week. 16/sam

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am cdt
Saturday for gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 5 mi48 min NNE 7 G 8.9 73°F 71°F1021.6 hPa
PPTA1 21 mi48 min NE 6 71°F 1021.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi88 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 69°F1 ft1021.5 hPa (+1.9)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 35 mi18 min NE 2.9 1021.3 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi93 min 65°F 64°F
WBYA1 36 mi48 min 74°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 46 mi168 min E 2.9 71°F 1021.3 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 46 mi48 min NE 7 G 8 70°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 47 mi48 min NNW 1.9 68°F 1022 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 49 mi78 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 70°F 1021.1 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL8 mi22 minNNE 4 miFair66°F55°F70%1021.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL9 mi25 minNE 610.00 miFair72°F51°F48%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W33W5NW5NW8NW9NW94NW7NW7SE9
G20
SW12SW8SW94W3W4NW6W3NW3N5NE4
1 day agoSW6W5W4W5W4W45W8NW7NW6W5SW14SW14SW16SW13SW12SW9SW7W5W4SW5SW5SW3SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE7S7SE8S9S10S12S10SW9SW10SW5SW5SW53W4SW6W7

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:56 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.60.70.811.11.21.21.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:46 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:30 AM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:48 PM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.60.70.80.911.11.11.11.110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.