Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Breeze, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 10:09 AM CST (16:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:37AMMoonset 10:38PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 956 Am Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers.
Friday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 956 Am Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..Winds will become southeasterly today as high pressure builds over the eastern gulf. A moderate to strong onshore flow will develop tonight into Thursday night ahead of the next approaching cold front. Winds become northwesterly behind the front late this week into this weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are likely late this week into the first part of the weekend due to strong winds and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Breeze, FL
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location: 30.34, -87.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 121248 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
648 am cst Wed dec 12 2018

Discussion Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine A short fuse marine dense fog advisory was recently issued
for mobile bay until 9 am. PORTS observations indicate that
visibility had fallen to around one tenth of a mile near coast
guard sector mobile and pinto island, while local traffic cams
also showed visibility reduced along the bayway and causeway. The
patchy dense fog should gradually lift within the next couple of
hours. 21

Prev discussion issued 603 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update... Our local office rip current checklist indicates that a
high risk of rip currents will likely return Thursday and Thursday
night given a combination of strengthening onshore flow (ahead of
the next approaching low pressure system and cold front), long
period swell, and high tidal ranges. The high risk may linger into
Friday and Friday night as long period swell persists. We have
decided to issue a rip current statement for a high risk of rip
currents along our local beaches Thursday through Friday night.

Surf heights may also increase to 4-7 feet Thursday night through
Friday night, and a high surf advisory may eventually become
necessary.

One additional note to mention that we included patchy fog in the
northern mobile bay marine zone forecast given a persistent, but
very localized area of patchy fog that has been impacting locations
near the bay way causeway early this morning. We expect patchy fog
to lift within the next couple of hours. 21
aviation...

12z issuance... Localized ifr or lower visibility restrictions may
impact the kbfm terminal and very localized portions of the area
for the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise,VFR expected today with
increasing high level cloud decks this morning, and lowerVFR
decks this afternoon. MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions
could impact portions of the region again tonight. 21
prev discussion... Issued 454 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
near term now through Wednesday night ... A dry zonal flow pattern
aloft is in place across the central gulf coast region early this
morning with surface high pressure also building across the area.

Temperatures are near to slightly below freezing over much of the
area early this morning, except slightly warmer near the beaches.

Some very patchy fog has developed across a few locations near the
coast, but most locations are reporting good visibility as of 4 am
cst. Expect fog to remain quite patchy in nature and lift prior to 9
am cst.

The dry zonal flow pattern will continue over the area today, before
mid level flow becomes more southwesterly by tonight ahead of the
next trough that will be deepening over the rocky mountains. Surface
high pressure will meanwhile shift eastward across the southeastern
states and adjacent western atlantic through tonight, allowing for a
return southerly flow to develop across our region. Dry weather is
expected through this afternoon, but cloud cover should continue to
increase as the day progresses. Weak isentropic ascent may develop
near the coast tonight underneath southwest flow aloft, and we will
keep a slight chance of rain in the forecast mainly south of a new
augusta, ms to navarre, fl line. We may also have to monitor for
patchy fog development across portions of the area again tonight as
low level moisture increases. Slightly warmer temperatures are
expected today, with highs generally ranging from around 60 to the
mid 60s across the region. Increasing low level moisture should
bring warmer overnight lows tonight with readings in the mid 40s to
around 50 over the interior, and in the 50s near the immediate
coast. 21
short term Thursday through Friday night ... An upper trough
moves across the southern plains and forms a deep upper low over
texas on Thursday. An associated sfc low occludes while moving
eastward. Strong deep layer lift will spread across the area from
the west starting Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This
will bring widespread showers and some thunderstorms to the area.

Only weak destabilization is expected ahead of this system due to
the lack of significant modification of the airmass. As a result,
only weak CAPE values are expected along the coast and this is
where SPC has outlined a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.

The main threat will likely be locally heavy rain. The heavy rain
will move east of the area Thursday night, however the upper low
will slowly move across the area on Friday. This will keep
conditions cloudy with scattered showers. 13
long term Saturday through Tuesday ... Dry conditions continue
through the extended period as the large, deep system continues
eastward away from the area and into the western atlantic.

Temperatures will be near or slight below seasonable values
through the period, roughly near 40 at night and around 60 each
day. 13
marine... Surface high pressure will build across the eastern gulf
of mexico today, allowing winds to become southeasterly to southerly
over the marine area. Onshore flow will strengthen tonight into
Thursday night as the gradient increases between high pressure
shifting into the western atlantic and a low pressure system and
cold front approaching from the west. Wind speeds will likely
increase to small craft advisory levels Thursday into Thursday
night, with seas also building to 7-10 feet offshore. Small craft
advisory issuance will likely become necessary later today or
tonight. We may also have to monitor for near gale force gusts well
offshore by Thursday night. Showers and a few storms will spread
over the marine area ahead of the approaching front Thursday and
Thursday night, and a few storms could become strong to marginally
severe. Moderate to strong westerly flow and rough seas will
continue Friday into early Saturday, followed by moderate offshore
flow and subsiding seas this weekend. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk from Thursday morning through late Friday
night for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk from Thursday morning through late Friday
night for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for gmz630-631.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 5 mi52 min ESE 4.1 G 7 49°F 55°F1026.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi40 min 9.7 G 12 1026.4 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 35 mi100 min NE 7 43°F 1025.4 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi85 min 42°F 1026 hPa41°F
WBYA1 36 mi52 min 53°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 46 mi52 min NE 12 G 13 47°F 1025.7 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 49 mi130 min NNE 11 G 12 49°F 1025.6 hPa (+0.6)41°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL8 mi2.2 hrsN 49.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F39°F93%1026.2 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL9 mi77 minENE 610.00 miFair49°F37°F66%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N7CalmNW44S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3------------CalmCalmN4E7E8
1 day agoN6NW66NW6NW11
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CalmN3NW5N4N5N5N5--NW11
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2 days ago--NW8NW8NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:41 AM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:36 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:51 PM CST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:38 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.21.110.80.60.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.70.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:33 AM CST     1.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:37 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:30 AM CST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.110.90.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.20.40.50.60.80.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.