Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pascagoula, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 4:56PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:29 AM CST (14:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:35PMMoonset 4:35AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 344 Am Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers early in the morning.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west in the late evening and early morning, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 344 Am Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will continue to push through the coastal waters this morning. A large ridge of high pressure will build south through the plains, lower mississippi valley and western gulf coast today through Wednesday. An area of low pressure may develop along the front over the northwest gulf and may move across the central gulf coast region late Friday and Friday night. A stronger low pressure system is expected to move eastward across the central to southern plains Saturday night with the associated strong cold front likely to move through the central gulf coast region Sunday afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pascagoula, MS
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location: 30.34, -88.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 201001
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
401 am cst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Cold front appears to be near a pensacola to boothville line at 3
am. Upper shortwaves are near the confluence of the ohio and
mississippi rivers and over texas. Another shortwave is over the
pacific ocean approaching san diego. Most of the rain shield with
the mainland shortwaves is currently over the gulf of mexico, but
there are scattered showers or patches of light rain across the
local area, with the back edge apparently near a baton rouge to
morgan city line. Temperatures at 3 am were generally in the 50s.

Slightly drier air is approaching, as dew points at mccomb and new
roads have fallen from the middle 50s to the upper 40s in the last
few hours.

Short term
Shortwaves will continue to move eastward today with any remaining
rain expected to shift south and east of the area by midday. The
respite will be short lived as moisture returns to the area late
on Wednesday, as the shortwave currently near san diego
approaches. There will be potential for a few showers overnight
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, primarily to the south of
interstate 10. Rain amounts will be pretty light, and any amounts
in excess of a quarter inch should mainly be near and south of a
houma to boothville line. Airmass dries out pretty quickly as
shortwave will already be east of the area by 18z Thursday.

Wouldn't be surprised to see afternoon Sun in many areas.

High temperatures the next 3 days to be about 5-10 degrees cooler
than what was observed on Monday. Overnight lows will return to
the 35 to 40 range the next 2 nights over the northern half of the
area. Have trended toward the middle or upper end of the guidance
envelope where differences are evident. 35

Long term
Beyond Thursday, medium range model differences begin to creep
into the forecast. The next in a seemingly endless stream of
southern stream shortwaves will approach the area late in the day
on Friday, and be east of the area Saturday morning. Both GFS and
ecmwf bring it through with similar timing, but the ECMWF solution
has a bit more of a negative tilt to it. ECMWF solution suppresses
the surface low a bit further south. While both models bring a
period of rain across the area, the GFS solution would be a bit
warmer, and provide a little better chance of thunder. Forecast
for Friday and Saturday slightly favors GFS solution, especially
regarding thunder, but if GFS ends up being more accurate,
temperatures will need bumped up a bit in later forecasts.

The strongest in the batch of shortwaves will move across the
center of the country on Sunday. With a strong surface low
expected to develop and move across missouri on Sunday, the
trailing cold front will move through the area sometime around
Sunday evening. Normally, this would pose a threat of severe
weather somewhere in the lower mississippi river valley, but
current indications are that moisture availability could be an
issue. For now, will favor the wetter warmer GFS scenario
somewhat, but forecast confidence will need to improve somewhat
before going full throttle with that solution. Much cooler air
will return to the area later Monday into midweek with a trailing
shortwave in the northern stream reinforcing the cooler air
Tuesday. 35

Aviation
Ifr conditions due to low CIGS at kmcb, kbtr, kreg and just
northwest of khdc should continue to move southeast with a cold
front during the remainder of the overnight into the early morning
hours. Ifr conditions are expected to reach kasd, kmsy, knew, kgpt
and khum during the 10-13z period with a 3-6 hour period of ifr
expected. Improvement back to MVFR thenVFR with clouds scattering
out and clearing is expected to occur fairly rapidly from northwest
to southeast during the late morning and early afternoon. Fairly
consistent north winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected through the day
with higher speeds expected at knew today and tonight. The outlook
for the very busy travel day tomorrow is good with widespreadVFR
and surface winds of less than 10 knots expected to prevail. 22 td

Marine
A cold front will continue to push southeast through the central
gulf coast region this morning. Winds in the marine area will become
mostly north to north-northeast and rise to 10 to near 15 knots
which will cause seas waves to rise to 2 to 3 feet today. A large
ridge of high pressure with cooler air will build in from the north
today through Wednesday. Winds will likely rise a bit more tonight
into the 15 to 20 knots range across much of the coastal waters
before falling back to 10 to 15 knots by late Wednesday morning.

Winds will likely cycle back up again late Wednesday night into
thanksgiving morning across the coastal waters west and south of
southwest pass as a weak low pressure area of inverted trough forms
in the western gulf of mexico. This low pressure area is expected to
reform north and northeastward towards the louisiana coast Friday
afternoon and evening then move quickly across the central gulf
coast region Friday night. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
with regards to the timing, movement and strength of this system,
but it looks like variable winds of 15 to 20 knots are likely with
some south to southwesterly winds possibly exceeding 20 knots over
the eastern coastal waters Friday night.

Another stronger and larger low pressure system is expected to move
from the southern plains to the mid mississippi and lower ohio
valleys Saturday night through Sunday night, and the associated cold
front should sweep through the central gulf coast region Sunday
afternoon and evening. Strong winds near or exceeding 20 knots and
choppy to rough seas are likely with this system Sunday into Monday.

22 td

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings at bogalusa, pearl river and
red river landing
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 59 37 60 39 10 0 0 20
btr 62 38 62 41 10 0 0 20
asd 62 40 63 40 20 0 0 20
msy 61 44 62 46 30 0 0 30
gpt 62 41 62 41 20 0 0 10
pql 64 39 63 40 20 0 0 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 3 mi59 min 63°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 6 mi104 min N 6 58°F 1022 hPa56°F
GBRM6 8 mi65 min 57°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 9 mi59 min N 9.9 G 13 58°F 1022.7 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 18 mi89 min NNE 8 59°F 1021.7 hPa (+1.4)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 21 mi59 min N 7 58°F 1021.3 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 25 mi89 min N 12 G 13 59°F 1021.1 hPa (+1.1)55°F
MBPA1 27 mi59 min 58°F 56°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 28 mi59 min NNE 13 G 15 59°F 1021.5 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi89 min NNW 12 58°F 1020.7 hPa (+1.4)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 33 mi59 min NNW 5.1 G 8 57°F 62°F1022.2 hPa
PTOA1 35 mi59 min 58°F 58°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 36 mi59 min 57°F 58°F1022.1 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 37 mi89 min N 9.9 58°F 1021.3 hPa (+2.0)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 38 mi104 min 57°F 1021 hPa55°F
WBYA1 38 mi59 min 60°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 39 mi89 min N 5.1 56°F 1022.4 hPa (+2.0)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 42 mi59 min N 8.9 G 11 57°F 58°F1022.1 hPa

Wind History for Range A Rear, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS8 mi36 minN 88.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1022.5 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi33 minN 810.00 miOvercast58°F55°F91%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from PQL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmS6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmN4N5N8
1 day agoCalmE4CalmCalm3S6S5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago33NE4Calm3SE44CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pascagoula Point, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point of Pines, Bayou Cumbest, Mississippi
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.