Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 4:35 AM   Moonset 5:57 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 061925 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 225 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Latest visible satellite images are showing some breaks in the cloud coverage along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains areas early this afternoon. Also, the combination of satellite images with surface observations reveal the position of the dry-line which extends from the Texas panhandle to the south and over Val Verde County. The dry- line is forecast to push slowly to the east and over the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau for the rest of this afternoon before pushing back to the west of the local area. With that said, expect mostly sunny to sunny skies across a good portion of the Rio Grande/southern Edwards Plateau and partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
Highs are likely to range from the low to mid 80s across the Hill Country, along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. There is a slight chance to low end chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms especially along the I-35 corridor this afternoon where elevated pwat values and highest dew-point temperatures reside. If this activity manages to develop, we could see a quick downpour or two with gusty winds and can't rule out hail. Thus far, cap looks to be holding off pretty well.

Low clouds return and spread across the local area tonight into Tuesday morning. Patchy to areas of fog are expected to form overnight and remain through mid Tuesday morning. One of the areas to possible be impacted with patchy dense fog could be parts of Bexar County and nearby counties to the north and west. Overnight lows forecast ranges from the upper 60s over a few locations across the Hill Country with the rest of the local area in the low to mid 70s.

The dry-line is forecast to push into the Hill Country, over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to reach the upper 80s to upper 90s across those areas while areas along and east of I-35 and Coastal Plains stay in the low 90s. We are not expecting any type of showers or storms for Tuesday across the local area as an upper level zonal flow takes control.

Once again clouds come back for Tuesday night with overnight lows in the 70s for the most part. Dry weather pattern continues through this period.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be southwesterly with a deep upper low over the northern Plains at the start of the long term period.
The low level flow will continue from the south to southeast. Dry weather will continue Wednesday. Temperatures will climb a few more degrees to well above normal. Record highs are possible along the Rio Grande Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through South Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a slight chance for rain to the northeastern part of the CWA More significantly it will bring relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the weekend. A second upper trough will develop on the backside of northern Plains low and swing through the southern Rockies into the southern Plains over the weekend. This may produce enough lift to combine with daytime heating to generate convection each afternoon Saturday through Monday. However, given the drier airmass POPs only reach 20% each day and most places will be dry.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR cigs are forecast for the area terminals at least through 21Z with KDRT reaching to VFR between 19Z and 20Z. VFR conditions are expected to stay through this evening with cigs and vbsys lowering to MVFR/IFR overnight into at least mid Tuesday morning.
Showing VCSH for the I-35 corridor sites for this afternoon as hires models are producing some light to moderate echos and even a few storms. This scenario depends in cap inversion breaking. Otherwise, a dry forecast for the tonight into Tuesday period. There are some hints of LIFR for KSAT and KSSF around the 10Z to 15Z time frame.
Stay tuned for future updates as far as this possibility. Southerly winds 10 to 12 knots for the rest of this afternoon and early evening and 10 knots or less tonight into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 73 91 73 92 / 0 10 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 91 72 92 / 0 10 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 93 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 88 72 92 / 10 10 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 99 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 89 72 90 / 10 10 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 71 93 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 91 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 89 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 92 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 94 74 97 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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