Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 4:56 PM   Moonset 3:39 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 200758 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 258 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The upper level flow this morning is zonal to slightly ridging. The low level flow is from the southeast. Temperatures this morning are slightly lower than 24 hours ago with less cloud cover over the region. Cloudy skies are starting to develop and should become widespread by around sunrise. These clouds will give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and that will lead to very warm temperatures. Highs will be similar to yesterday mostly in the 90s and approaching 105 along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will strengthen today as it shifts toward the east. We will continue to have dry weather tonight and Tuesday. The low level flow will continue from the southeast and clouds will get an earlier start tonight. This will mean lows Tuesday morning will be a few degrees warmer than today. Skies will become mostly sunny again Tuesday afternoon and high temperatures will be within a degree or two of highs today.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

By Wednesday the upper level ridge axis will stretch from the southeast U.S. into the southwest Gulf of Mexico, while a trough digs through the southwest U.S. and Baja California. This will open the door for isolated showers and storms in the afternoons and evenings along and east of the dryline. This could be as early as early Tuesday evening along the Rio Grande, where a few CAMs are indicating convective development. But better chances (20-30%) look to come Wednesday afternoon and evening along the Rio Grande and across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and central Texas, as the ridge pulls farther away and a weak impulses in the southwest flow move across. A few storms could become severe Wednesday afternoon and evening and SPC has placed the Hill Country and northern areas of the I-35 corridor in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms.

The dryline Thursday and Friday looks to make slightly farther eastward progression each afternoon, with low (10-20%) chances for isolated storms in the afternoon and evening confined at this time to portions of the Hill Country and central Texas. These low chances for isolated afternoon and evening storms may continue over the weekend for this region.

Otherwise, continued well above normal temperatures with periods of hazy conditions east of the dryline. Heat-related impacts are forecast to increase each day, peaking over the weekend. Very hot afternoon temperatures of 104 to 110 degrees are forecast over the weekend closer to the Rio Grande, west of the dryline, with mid 90s to around 100 degrees east of the dryline. Elevated dew points east of the dryline, influences from evapotranspiration where better spring rainfall has occurred, and the early nature of the summer heat will also spike the heat risk. Those spending extended time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat precautions.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Southeasterly flow in the boundary layer will continue during this period. MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop tonight first in Austin and San Antonio and later at DRT. Clouds will dissipate by late morning with VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening. Southeasterly winds will be 10 to 15 kts through the period at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 92 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 91 73 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 79 103 80 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 73 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 76 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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