Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:48PM Monday December 10, 2018 2:12 AM CST (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:14AMMoonset 8:52PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 910 Pm Cst Sun Dec 9 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of rain in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 910 Pm Cst Sun Dec 9 2018
Synopsis..A moderate to strong northwest flow continues through early Monday as high pressure over the central plains states slowly shifts east. A light to moderate northerly flow continues through Tuesday followed by a light southerly flow by midweek. Southerly winds and seas will build later in the week as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from the west. Showers and Thunderstorms increase in areal coverage the latter half of the week, with the highest rain chances occurring late Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre Beach, FL
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location: 30.37, -86.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 100531 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1131 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Expect ifr to lower end MVFR ceilings until around
midday Monday followed by upper end MVFR toVFR conditions through
the remainder of the forecast. Winds will be northwest at 8 to 12
knots with slightly higher gusts to near 15 knots during the day
Monday. 10

Prev discussion issued 808 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Removed pops for remainder of the night given quiet radar
trends and forecasts from latest high resolution guidance showing
little to no precipitation thru the night. Still could be a
passing sprinkle or very light drizzle at times, but measurable
precipitation is not expected. Did make a few minor edits to
temperatures given observations, but overall forecast looks on
track. 10
prev discussion... Issued 527 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Expect ifr to lower end MVFR ceilings until around
midday Monday followed by upper end MVFR toVFR conditions through
the remainder of the forecast. Winds will be northwest at 8 to 12
knots with slightly higher gusts to near 15 knots during the day
Monday. 22
prev discussion... Issued 358 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018
near term now through Monday ... Broad upper trof stretching
from the central plains to the eastern seaboard will continue to
shift slowly to the east through Mon afternoon. Near the base of
the upper system another vigorous mid level impulse generally in
the form of another close low will move quickly southward from the
northern central plains states to the lower ms river valley
through tonight before opening and dampening out as it begins to
track eastward over the north central gulf states and SE CONUS mon
morning through Mon afternoon. With very limited moisture in the
boundary layer, mean rh values near 100 percent mostly below 5kft,
the chance for measurable rain with this pattern will be very
limited to nil through the next 24 hours, though we will likely
see continued low stratus at around 1k ft or a little higher mixed
with some drizzle at times through early Mon afternoon. At the
surface a broad ridge of high pressure stretching from the
northern plains to lower rockies will shift slowly east reaching
the mid ms river and much of east tx and adjacent gulf waters by
late Mon afternoon. With this pattern a moderate northwest flow
this afternoon will shift mostly north tonight then diminish
slowly through Mon afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to run 8 to 12 degrees below seasonal
norms through Mon afternoon with lows ranging from the mid to upper
30s for most inland areas and the upper 30s to lower 40s near the
immediate coast. Highs Mon will range from the upper 40s to lower
50s for most inland areas and the lower to middle 50s near the
immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Monday night through Wednesday night ... A dry and
cool dome of surface high pressure builds eastward into the
region through Tuesday then begins to shift east of the area
Tuesday night. Temperatures will be up to about 10 degrees below
normal during this period with a light freeze expected over much
of the inland areas both nights. Lows Monday night and Tuesday
night will generally range from the lower 30s inland to the mid to
upper 30s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 50s
then Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 60s. An upper trof
advances across the central states Tuesday night then weakens to a
series of shortwaves which move across the forecast area
Wednesday night. A return flow is established over the forecast
area on Wednesday ahead of the approaching shortwaves which brings
a return to more seasonable temperatures along with sufficient
moisture to the area to support slight chance to chance pops for
much of the area Wednesday night. 29
long term Thursday through Sunday ... Another upper trof
advances across the central states and deepens substantially,
forming an upper low over the central gulf coast states on
Friday. An associated surface low moves from the red river valley
Thursday morning and occludes with the upper system while
continuing generally eastward into the southeast or east central
states on Friday. This is an exceptionally deep 500 mb low in our
area, which anomaly maps show is 4 (or much higher) standard
deviations below normal, depending on the guidance. Such a
powerful, abnormally deep upper low in our area could portend a
significant weather event, but this is tempered by a slight
positive tilt and the occluding surface low which instead indicate
a decelerating, less favorable pattern. There are timing
uncertainties with the best deep layer forcing expected to move
across the region ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.

A consensus has the best deep layer lift (manifesting as a
prefrontal trof) moving across the forecast area Thursday night
with the cold front moving through soon after. The best
instability is out of phase with the best shear, although there
does appear to be MLCAPE values of 400-500 j kg coincident with
0-1 km helicity values of 100-150 m2 s2 which occurs mainly during
Thursday night. It's not clear if convection will be surface
based however, so will monitor at this point and reassess on later
shifts. For Thursday, will have likely pops over the western
portion with chance to good chance pops elsewhere, then likely
pops follow for the entire area Thursday night. Predominately
chance to good chance pops on Friday trend lower Friday night,
with dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday as the upper
low surface low moves off to the east northeast during the
remainder of the period. 29
marine... A moderate to strong northwest flow will continue through
early Mon as a broad surface ridge of high pressure over the central
plains states slowly shifts east. A light to moderate northerly flow
will continue through Tue followed by a light southerly flow by
midweek. Southerly winds and seas will build later in the week as a
deep area of low pressure and associated cold front approach from
the west. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this pattern
with the best coverage occurring late Thu into fri. Small craft
advisories will continue over the open gulf waters from 0 to 60 nm
out including mobile bay and ms river through tonight with exercise
caution levels for remaining inland bays and sounds. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk until 6 am cst Monday for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk until 6 am cst Monday for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 am cst Monday for gmz630>632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 15 mi42 min NW 7 G 12 43°F 60°F1020.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi32 min 16 G 21 1020.6 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 47 mi87 min 42°F 1021 hPa38°F
WBYA1 47 mi42 min 58°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 47 mi102 min NNW 14 43°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL14 mi76 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast44°F39°F86%1019.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi19 minNW 119.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1020.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL20 mi76 minVar 610.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1020.1 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi16 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F88%1019.6 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi76 minNW 810.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW9W8NW9NW8NW8NW7NW8NW9NW12
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N7N13N8N10N9NW10N10NW7N10N9
1 day agoNE7E7NE6NE8E9E13E11
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E13E9E6E7E10E12E11E11SE14SE19
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2 days agoNE2N5CalmE4E4E6E7E7--------E7E7E4E4E5E5NE5E5E5E5E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:27 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.40.60.70.91.11.31.41.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM CST     1.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:06 PM CST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.41.20.90.60.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.60.811.21.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.