Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:06PM Thursday March 30, 2017 1:38 AM CDT (06:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 10:07PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1011 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. A light chop. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Choppy becoming a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Saturday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1011 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds will increase and seas will build through Thursday evening ahead of a developing storm system approaching from the west. A few strong to severe Thunderstorms will be possible early Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A light to moderate west to northwest flow is expected in the wake of the front on Friday. Onshore flow will strengthen again Sunday night into Monday ahead of the next storm system.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre Beach, FL
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location: 30.37, -86.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 300449 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1149 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Showers and thunderstorms currently advancing
across central louisiana into southwest mississippi are expected
to decrease in coverage before advancing into southeast
mississippi late tonight. The showers and storms increase in
coverage during mid Thursday morning, and spread eastward through
the remainder of the forecast area through the afternoon hours.

Ifr/MVFR ceilings will continue to develop across the forecast
area through the overnight hours, then gradually increase to
predominately MVFR ceilings during the morning to early afternoon
hours. Ifr/MVFR conditions will accompany the showers and storms
along with the potential for strong/severe storm development. /29

Prev discussion /issued 950 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Have updated to add slight chance to chance pops mainly
to southeast mississippi late tonight. A convective complex
currently advancing across southwest and central louisiana is
expected to weaken overnight, but isolated to scattered showers
and storms will reach the far western portion of the area by late
tonight. No other major changes at this time. /29
prev discussion... /issued 603 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...VFR conditions prevail early this evening followed
by ifr/MVFR conditions (ceilings/fog) developing later this
evening into the overnight hours. The fog dissipates early
Thursday morning along with ceilings improving to MVFR/vfr. A line
of showers and storms will approach the area from the west
overnight, then moves into southeast mississippi late Thursday
morning. The showers and storms continue eastward across much of
the remainder of the area through the late afternoon hours. Expect
ifr/MVFR conditions in the showers and storms along with the
potential for strong/severe storm development. /29
prev discussion... /issued 240 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
near term /now through Thursday/... Strong to severe thunderstorms
are still forecast for Thursday as a strong storm system approaches
the region from the west. A large upper level trough with embedded
closed low pressure area over north central oklahoma will advance
eastward over the central and southern great plains tonight and
approach the mississippi river on Thursday. A surface low pressure
area over the eastern portions of kansas and oklahoma this evening
will lift northeast, reaching illinois by late Thursday afternoon,
with an associated frontal boundary advancing just east of the
mississippi river.

A deep southerly wind flow ahead of the system will advect moisture
northward across the region, with precipitable water values climbing
to between 1.4 to 1.6 inches on Thursday. The severe weather
parameters in the GFS and NAM models continue to be higher when
compared to the ecmwf, with MLCAPE values between 900 to 1400 j/kg
Thursday afternoon compared to 300 to 600 j/kg from the ecmwf. Sfc-
1km storm relative helicity values from all models range from 70 to
140 m2/s2. A 35 to 45 knot low level jet is also expected to
accompany this system, along with bulk shear values around 35 knots.

Upper level lapse rates are still expected to be in 7 to 7.5 c/km
range. The pre-storm environment still favors the development of
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds,
large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible with this system.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 58 to 65 degrees. High
temperatures Thursday will range from 78 to 83 degrees inland areas,
and from 73 to 77 degrees along the coastal sections. /22
short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/... The cold
front and associated line of storms is expected to move east of
the area by early Friday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will remain possible along the line and with any storms ahead of
the line. The severe threat will end Friday morning as the cold
front moves east of the area. A drier airmass moves into the area
on Friday as shortwave ridging builds over the area. Upper ridging
continues to build over the area on Saturday with temps warming
into the low and mid 80s. Moisture levels increase Saturday night
ahead of another developing system. However, no precip is expected
through Saturday night. /13
long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... A very active pattern will
continue through the extended range. Moisture levels increase
rapidly on Sunday into Sunday night as a strong southern stream
shortwave digs across southern plains. This system is forecast to
take on a negative tilt across the lower mississippi river valley
Sunday night. Meanwhile, a surface low tracks from the arklatex
to western tennessee with a trailing cold front moving across the
area Sunday night into Monday. Parameters look favorable for all
modes of severe thunderstorms during this period along with very
heavy rainfall. All interests across the area should continue to
monitor future developments. A dry period follows through Tuesday,
before yet another system brings showers and thunderstorms back
into the area on Wednesday. /13
marine... A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue to
increase through Thursday ahead of a deep area of low pressure and
surface cold front advancing east to the mississippi river. South
winds at 15 to 20 knots can be expected by midday Thursday through
Thursday evening then shifting west to northwest late Thursday
evening through the overnight hours and diminish to 10 to 15 knots.

Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to approach
from the west Thursday afternoon and move east of the marine area by
early Friday morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible with this pattern. Small craft should exercise caution
Thursday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds redevelop over the
weekend building by early next week as another upper system
approaches from the west. /22

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 15 mi50 min S 8.9 G 9.9 71°F 75°F1013.9 hPa
PPTA1 33 mi68 min SSE 11 72°F 1013.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi48 min SSE 14 G 16 71°F 72°F4 ft1013.3 hPa (-0.9)68°F
WBYA1 47 mi50 min 75°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 47 mi68 min SSE 15 1013.2 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 47 mi113 min 68°F 66°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 57 mi68 min SSE 18 72°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL14 mi41 minSSE 910.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1013.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi45 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F66°F84%1013.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL20 mi42 minS 13 miFair71°F66°F84%1013.8 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi1.7 hrsSSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds68°F64°F87%1015.1 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi42 minSSE 55.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSE6SE10SE9SE7S8SE9SE6S6SE7E6SE7SE6SE6SE6SE7SE9
1 day agoS3S5SW3Calm--CalmSW3SW5S7S9S11S12S14SW10
G15
S11SW8S8S7S6S6S6S6SW3Calm
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E8SE7SE8SE8SE10SE9SE10SE12SE10SE8SE8SE7S7S7S7S6S6S3

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:10 PM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.60.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.21.110.80.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.10

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:48 PM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.60.70.80.91.11.11.21.21.21.110.80.60.40.20.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.