Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 11:44 AM   Moonset 1:08 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

GMZ634 Expires:202405150930;;214072 Fzus54 Kmob 142038 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 338 pm cdt Tue may 14 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633>636-150930- perdido bay-pensacola bay system-western choctawhatchee bay- eastern choctawhatchee bay- 338 pm cdt Tue may 14 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late this evening and early morning, then becoming west late. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Wednesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 338 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southwesterly winds, occasionally stronger well offshore, become west to northwest tonight. A light to moderate westerly to northwesterly flow follows for Wednesday into Wednesday night, then becomes southerly on Thursday. The onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and becomes west to northwest.

FXUS64 KMOB 142103 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 403 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East Coast through Wednesday night. An associated surface low currently located near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence progresses to near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and in the process brings a weak cold front through the forecast area tonight. Ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, a modest zone of low level convergence oriented roughly along the I-65 corridor will combine with the frontal boundary to produce isolated to potentially scattered convective development during the remainder of the afternoon, with the best potential mainly along the I-65 corridor. The convection diminishes this evening with dry conditions then following for the overnight hours through Wednesday night. MLCAPE values for the rest of this afternoon into the early evening hours look to be mostly 1500-2500 J/kg, which along with deep layer shear values near 45 knots could allow for a few storms to possibly become severe. The best potential for this to occur is over much of southwest and south central Alabama, including the western Florida panhandle, where a Marginal Risk of severe storms exists. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then lows Wednesday night range from around 60 well inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday night. /29

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The pattern will become active again after a brief break on Wednesday and Wednesday night. An elongated mid and upper level low pressure system currently positioned over the Pacific to the west of southern California will be our next system to potentially bring high impact weather along the northern Gulf Coast. This feature is expected to quickly translate eastward across the southern tier of the U.S. over the next few days and be located over the Southern Plains by Friday. This is supported by the latest ensemble model suites. Much of the model guidance is also suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by Thursday night. In addition, the lifting warm front should be aided by a strengthening low level jet which should be spreading across the warm front. As low level winds become enhanced in association with the lead shortwave which interacts with increasing instability, storms are expected to form initially along and north of the boundary. A few of these storms may become severe but should be initially elevated in nature. With time towards Friday morning, storms may become increasingly surface based. This would only help to increase the overall severe weather potential into Friday morning.

There may tend to be a break in convective activity later Friday before the primary forcing associated with the main mid/upper level trough overspreads the region Friday night into Saturday morning. This should support another round of storms, some potentially severe, during this time period. There will be some uncertainty with respect to the overall instability available for newly developing convection overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. This will hinge on mesoscale processes associated with the Thursday night into Friday morning convection. The question, as was the case with our latest past event, is whether the first round of storms will disrupt the instability that will be available for the Friday night into Saturday morning convective system. These details will not be known until we get closer to the event and begin to see the eventual evolution of storms associated with the lead shortwave. Either way, conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for some severe weather potential during the end of this week with details to still be worked out over the coming forecast cycles.

Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not the air mass can recover. Another reinforcing northern stream shortwave trough digs into the region on Sunday and pushes a cold front across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in association with the cold frontal passage on Sunday.

Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather along with increasingly hot temperatures. /JLH

MARINE
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Will have a Small Craft Advisory continue until 5 pm for the 20-60 nm portion to allow for southwesterly winds to subside a bit more.
No concerns are otherwise expected through Thursday night. An onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and becomes west to northwest. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from late Friday night into Saturday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 65 88 64 87 69 85 71 86 / 10 0 0 10 40 70 40 40 Pensacola 70 87 67 86 73 84 74 84 / 20 0 0 10 30 60 50 50 Destin 72 85 70 84 74 83 75 83 / 20 0 0 10 20 60 50 50 Evergreen 63 87 61 89 66 85 67 85 / 20 0 0 0 40 80 60 50 Waynesboro 61 86 61 88 65 82 66 85 / 10 0 0 10 50 80 40 40 Camden 62 85 60 87 66 81 66 83 / 20 0 0 0 50 80 60 40 Crestview 65 88 62 90 66 87 70 86 / 20 0 0 0 20 70 50 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ670- 675.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:08 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:16 PM CDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Navarre Beach, Florida, Tide feet

East Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:08 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:17 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:53 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northwest Florida,