Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madisonville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:57PM Sunday September 23, 2018 2:35 PM CDT (19:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:30PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1019 Am Cdt Sun Sep 23 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds near 5 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1019 Am Cdt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis..General onshore flow will persist under the influence of weak high pressure through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madisonville, LA
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location: 30.38, -90.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 231817
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
117 pm cdt Sun sep 23 2018

Update
Updated for 18z aviation discussion.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through Monday with the
exception being during shra tsra and some possible MVFR cigs
Monday morning. Main forecast problem as always in this pattern
will be timing out the mainly brief impacts from scattered to at
times numerous shra tsra that are expected to increase in coverage
through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. Have mainly
indicated vcts in early portion of forecast with tempo TS later
this afternoon. 22 td

Prev discussion issued 325 am cdt Sun sep 23 2018
discussion...

an upper level ridge is currently centered in the western
atlantic east of the carolinas while a weak upper trough is slowly
moving through texas. This trough as well as a northern stream
one have completely eroded any existence of a ridge over the cwa,
thus further decreasing local subsidence. Current radar shows
nocturnal isolated showers and thunderstorms in the coastal
waters. As typical with the current environment, daytime heating
will cutoff coastal region convection by mid morning before
sparking inland thunderstorms. It should be much like yesterday,
with 50 to 70% rain chances across the CWA this afternoon.

Generally speaking, higher rain chances should be on the western
side of the CWA as its further from the center of the upper ridge.

The hrrr and global models support this areal differentiation.

The main threat with storms today will be locally heavy rainfall
as pw's are around 2". Although most locations won't see more than
half an inch, upwards of 2 to 3" will be possible in isolated
incidents. Hail is unlikely with wbz close to 13kft but small
pebbles not impossible with very strong updrafts. However,
yesterday's 00z sounding does show enough dry air aloft to
possibly support strong downdrafts. A svr warning is not too
likely but a few sps' or ffw wouldn't be much of a surprise.

The forecast through early next week will basically be the same as
today with higher pops expected. From midweek onward, models show a
broad upper level trough pushing south into the midsection of the
country. A cold front associated with that trough will be pushing
south towards the area Thursday but should stall as is moves in.

This is due to the lack of southward progression of the base of the
trough. The GFS and ECMWF operational models are both quite close to
their ensemble members. The front will then quickly lift back north
as an upper level ridge builds across the southern third of the
country. No fall-like cold fronts this week.

Meffer
aviation...

expectVFR conditions to prevail outside of thunderstorms that
are expected to develop late in the morning into the afternoon
hours. Stronger storms may reduce CIGS and vsbys to ifr conditions
briefly.

Marine...

not much change in the forecast. A weak area of high pressure will
remain centered east of the forecast area and this will keep onshore
flow ahead of a frontal boundary northwest of the forecast area.

Winds around 10 knots or less and wave heights of 1 to 3 feet should
be the rule. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the remainder of the weekend and into the early to mid part
of next week, so locally higher wind gusts and waves will be
possible. 13 td
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 88 72 88 73 60 50 60 20
btr 88 73 87 74 70 60 60 30
asd 89 75 89 75 50 40 60 30
msy 88 76 88 77 60 60 60 30
gpt 88 76 86 76 40 40 60 40
pql 90 75 88 76 80 40 70 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FREL1 23 mi41 min 86°F 1012.6 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 25 mi35 min 87°F 88°F1013.5 hPa (-1.6)
CARL1 31 mi35 min 82°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi35 min 80°F 86°F1013.9 hPa (-1.4)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 44 mi35 min 83°F 87°F1014.3 hPa (-1.6)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 44 mi35 min 87°F 89°F1014 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA17 mi60 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast88°F71°F59%1013.5 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA18 mi42 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F70°F53%1013.4 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA24 mi42 minENE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F73°F61%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from HDC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
G16
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S7W6NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S7SE6S8SE9
1 day agoSE9
G15
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G15
S10SE7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4CalmN5SE3E7
G15
2 days agoS5SE8SE10S6S4SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmE4--W3CalmSE10SE10
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.