Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:19PM Friday May 24, 2019 5:07 AM EDT (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:201905241515;;369263 Fzus52 Kjax 240713 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 313 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-241515- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 313 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
Today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 313 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure off the carolina coast will sink southward while gradually weakening today and will then become centered directly over our waters tonight and Saturday. High pressure will then sink southward over the florida peninsula late this weekend and next week, with light offshore winds each morning shifting to onshore in the near shore waters with the sea breeze development each afternoon, followed by evening southerly wind surges this weekend through early next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 23, 2019 at 1200 utc... 62 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 75 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 78 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, FL
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location: 30.39, -81.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 240814
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
414 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Heat wave builds at inland locations today...

Near record heat and increasing wildfire danger this weekend
and next week...

Currently
Overnight surface analysis depicts weakening high pressure (1023
millibars) centered off the carolina coast. Aloft... Stout ridging
continues to build directly over our region downstream of deep
troughing that prevails over the rockies. The evening soundings at
jacksonville and tallahassee both measured 500 millibar (around
20,000 feet) heights around 592 decameters, which are near record
levels for late may. Goes-east total precipitable water (pwat)
imagery indicates that a dry air mass has overspread our region,
with pwat values of 1 inch or less detected area- wide. Nighttime
infrared satellite imagery shows a few patches of cumulus moving
onshore from the atlantic over flagler county and moving into
southern portions of the st. Johns river basin. Otherwise, fair
skies prevail, and radiational cooling is occurring inland as
winds have decoupled. Temperatures as of 08z have fallen into the
mid 60s inland, while a light onshore breeze is keeping coastal
temperatures in the low and mid 70s. Dewpoints were mostly in the
60-65 degree range.

Near term (today and tonight)
Deep-layered ridging will continue to dominate our weather
pattern, with near record 500 millibar heights expected to
continue over our region through the holiday weekend. Weakening
surface ridging centered over the atlantic waters will sink
southward and extend its axis near the fl ga border by this
evening. Our local pressure gradient will continue to loosen, and
a very subsident and dry air mass will only allow for some flat
cumulus clouds to develop along the inland moving sea breezes this
afternoon, while some periods of thin cirrus spill southward into
our region on the eastern periphery of the ridge. 850 millibar
(around 5000 feet) temperatures will increase to near 19 degrees
celsius today, which will likely support highs reaching the mid to
upper 90s at most inland locations west of u.S. Highway 301. The
atlantic sea breeze will develop early this afternoon and will
push across the interstate 95 corridor by the mid-afternoon, with
breezy east-southeasterly winds developing at the coast, keeping
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 for locations east of i-95.

The very strong subsident and turbulent mixing from intense
insolation and heating will result in dewpoints crashing to the
mid and upper 50s well inland this afternoon, while dewpoints fall
to the mid 60s at the coast before the sea breeze pushes through.

Heat index values will thus resemble the actual air temperature
today due to these low humidity values.

Surface ridging will then sink southward over north central
florida later tonight. Fair skies will prevail, and surface winds
will again decouple towards midnight. A light southwesterly
breeze will prevail at coastal locations as the ridge axis sinks
southward. Radiational cooling should result in lows falling to
the mid 60s inland, while coastal lows fall to around 70.

Short term (Saturday through Monday night)
Synopsis... Dangerously hot weather this period and continued dry.

Hotter and continued dry as deep layer ridge strengthens and
lingers over the local area. Surface high pressure will meander
over north-central florida this period with a weak surface trough
axis becoming diffuse over southern ga. Aloft, an unseasonably
strong 500 mb ridge center (593-595 dam) will dominate. Other than
some diurnally driven cumulus clouds, strong subsidence will
suppress convective growth. The main weather story this period
will be near record heat, as high temperatures warm into the upper
90s to lower 100s, with a warming trend by a couple degrees each
day. The dominant east coast sea breeze will bring some relief to
the coast where highs will still warm into the upper 80s to low
90s. Despite the record breaking high temperatures, heat index
values this period will range between 100-107 deg inland, just shy
of heat advisory criteria (heat advisory issued when heat index is
108-112 deg f). Low temperatures will range generally from the
upper 60s to low mid 70s.

Long term (Tuesday through Friday)
Synopsis... Hot and dry conditions continue, with just a tease of
rainfall potential late in the week.

Slight pattern shift begins late Tue as the surface ridge axis
slides southward across the southern tier of the fl peninsula,
with both sea breezes developing and pressing inland and focus the
hottest temperatures across the interior between the st. Johns
river basin and i-75 corridor. Strong mid level ridge will
continue to dominate across the eastern gomex, but with gradual
de-amplification through the end of the week as a long wave trough
edges southward across the lower ms river valley. A slight up-tick
in rain chances late Thu and again Fri as pwat increases to 1.5"
along the stalling surface front across SE ga and very weak,
sheared PVA drifts over the area aloft. Temperatures will continue
to warm to near record values each afternoon, from the upper 90s
to mid 100s with lows in the low mid 70s to upper 60s in normally
cooler locales.

Aviation
Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible at vqq through
sunrise. The smoke plume from the yellow bluff wildfire, located
about 5 miles north of jax, may produce periods of MVFR
conditions at jax after 15z, but confidence remains too low to
include in the overnight tafs. Light offshore surface winds will
develop at ssi after sunrise, with light northeasterly winds
expected elsewhere. Surface winds will then shift to east
southeasterly at the coastal terminals by 16z, with sustained
speeds increasing to near 10 knots.

Marine
Weakening high pressure that is centered off the carolina coast
will sink southward, becoming centered directly over our waters
tonight and Saturday. A loosening local pressure gradient will
allow the atlantic sea breeze to develop over the near shore
waters by early afternoon, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots
over the near shore waters. Seas of 2-3 feet near shore and 3-4
feet offshore today will decrease slowly tonight and Saturday. An
evening south-southwesterly wind surge is expected, but speeds
should remain below caution levels. Weakening high pressure will
then settle over the florida peninsula this weekend, keeping a
loose pressure pattern in place locally through much of the next
week. Light offshore winds are expected each morning, shifting to
southeasterly over the near shore waters as the sea breeze moves
inland each afternoon, and then southerly wind surges prevailing
each evening over all waters through most of next week. A long
period northeasterly ocean swell is expected to enter our waters
on Monday, which may bring combined seas back up to 3-4 feet near
shore and 4-5 feet offshore through Tuesday.

Rip currents: breezy onshore winds in the wake of the inland-
moving atlantic sea breeze boundary this afternoon will combine
with the outgoing tide this afternoon to create a moderate risk
at the northeast florida beaches today. A low risk appears likely
for Saturday as wave heights continue to decrease. An increasing
risk is then expected by memorial day and Tuesday as a long
period northeasterly swell arrives.

Fire weather
Elevated concern for wildfire outbreaks this holiday weekend due
to increased outdoor activity including fireworks, camp fires,
cigarettes and cookouts.

An extended period of hot and dry weather through early june will
continue elevated fire danger, despite not meeting locally defined
"red flag" criteria. Temperatures will warm into the upper 90s to
mid 100s inland each day with afternoon humidity ranging between
25-35%. Winds will be mainly local terrain influenced, with daily
sea breezes, river breezes and lake breezes. Gusts 14-18 mph will
be possible as the east coast sea breezes develops and presses
inland each afternoon. Dense smoke advisories will likely continue
through the weekend associated with the yellow bluff wildfire in
north-central duval south-central nassau counties.

Climate
Record highs at climate sites for memorial day weekend:
fri 5 24 Sat 5 25 Sun 5 26 Mon 5 27
---------------------------------------
jacksonville 98(1953) 99(1953) 99(1953) 98(1989)
gainesville 98(1893) 98(2011) 100(1953) 100(1953)
alma, ga 99(1960) 99(1962) 99(1962) 99(1967)
st. Simons island 96(1953) 96(1953) 100(1953) 96(2006)
all-time record MAX temps for the month of may...

jax 100 05-13-1967
gnv 101 05-31-1945
amg 100 05-28-1967
ssi 100 05-26-1953

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 96 66 100 73 0 0 10 0
ssi 89 72 92 75 0 0 0 0
jax 91 65 97 71 0 0 0 0
sgj 87 69 89 70 0 0 0 0
gnv 95 64 98 69 0 0 0 0
ocf 94 66 97 68 0 0 0 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Dense smoke advisory until 11 am edt this morning for inland
duval-inland nassau.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson enyedi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 2 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 80°F1020.7 hPa
LTJF1 3 mi38 min 74°F 68°F
BLIF1 7 mi38 min S 1 G 1.9 75°F 1021.6 hPa73°F
DMSF1 8 mi38 min 83°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 20 mi38 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 82°F1020.9 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 23 mi38 min 80°F3 ft
41117 32 mi38 min 79°F3 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 38 mi68 min ESE 9.9 G 11 76°F 80°F1020.4 hPa (-1.6)65°F
RCYF1 42 mi38 min 82°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 51 mi83 min SE 4.1 75°F 1022 hPa68°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL1 mi76 minSE 510.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1020.3 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL8 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F96%1020.6 hPa
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL16 mi73 minSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F80%1020.7 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL17 mi72 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist65°F64°F97%1020.4 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL18 mi75 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds76°F64°F69%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from NRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmSE6SE6E9E12E10E11E13E13E14E13E10E10E11E10E9E11E10SE8SE8SE5SE5S4
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2 days agoS7S6SW7SW8SW7W6E6E10SE11SE13SE12SE14SE14SE10SE11SE10S9S10S12S8SW6S8S8S7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River at Navy degaussing structure, Florida
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St. Johns River at Navy degaussing structure
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Fri -- 12:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:58 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM EDT     -1.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:20 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 PM EDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.62.31.60.6-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.4-1-0.30.51.31.71.61.10.3-0.4-0.9-1.1-1-0.60.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:53 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.20.3-0.8-1.7-2-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.8011.310.4-0.5-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.9-0.60.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.