Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:43PM Sunday May 28, 2017 5:35 AM CDT (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 432 Am Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 432 Am Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate south to southwest wind flow continues through Monday as high pressure slowly shifts east. A weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to decreased winds and seas through midweek. An increased coverage of showers and Thunderstorms can also be expected through midweek. A generally light southerly flow develops late in the week into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou town, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 280925
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
425 am cdt Sun may 28 2017

Near term now through Sunday night
Surface and upper ridge remain in place and slowly move east this
afternoon and tonight as the next upper trough approaches. This will
keep conditions mostly dry as deep layer subsidence continues.

However, rain chances will begin to increase this afternoon and
especially tonight from the west as the upper ridge slides east and
the trough nears. Temperatures continue to run 3 to 5 degrees above
normal, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s away from the coast.

Highs near the coast will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight
will also be above normal, in the low 70s inland to mid 70s along
the coast. 13

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
The memorial day forecast has resulted in lots of deliberation,
discussion, and consternation by this forecaster. In short, the
finer details will likely be dependent upon the convective evolution
over the next 18 to 24 hours. And, as such, will be subject to
change. Here's how things appear to evolve for the time being,
though.

Broad upper-level troughiness is expected to stretch from the upper
midwest and across the ohio valley for much of Monday. The nature of
this synoptic setup will likely result in rather weak perturbations
traversing the region until the main trough heads east. With weak
(if any) cross isobaric flow, the associated cold front will be
sluggish to move into our area and probably do so during the
afternoon. However, if convection develops along the front earlier
than expected, don't expect much southward movement.

To pour salt into the uncertainty wound, synoptic scale kinematics
and thermodynamics are out of phase with this system. The main upper
jet axis remains stretched from southwestern missouri into southern
pennsylvania through the day, with any upper-level divergence
remaining closer to the jet. Surface to 6-km effective bulk shear
values remain focused along the front and *may* reach 35 knots along
and north of the us-84 corridor by late afternoon if the front sags
south eastward into our area.

Abundant boundary layer moisture will be present, with precipitable
water values close to 3 standard deviations possible just inland
from the coast. There will be sufficient instability present, with
forecast soundings indicating MLCAPE values between 2000 and 2400
j kg possible. This combined with the possibility of an approaching
front (and any mesoscale boundary interactions), will lead to the
possibility of strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Areas along
and north of the us-84 corridor will likely see the greatest threat
for 50 mph wind gusts from the stronger thunderstorms. Right now,
though, it appears the greatest severe weather threat will be
north east of our area.

Another piece of upper-level energy is expected to move into the
upper trough Tuesday afternoon, which may aid in pushing the front a
little farther south. With abundant low-level moisture, especially
in vicinity of the weakening front, shower and thunderstorm
probabilities will remain elevated through the rest of the short
term period.

Thanks to WFO birmingham for collaboration this morning. 02

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A weakening surface boundary is expected drift offshore Wednesday as
a shortwave rounds the base of the upper trough over the eastern
u.S. Even with its probable location just offshore, the boundary
will likely continue serving as a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development across the region. With the loss of stronger synoptic
scale forcing, the convective nature should become increasingly
diurnal in nature, with the greatest coverage expected during the
afternoon and early evening. With uncertainties in the location and
timing of the front, this diurnal nature was not reflected
precipitation probability forecasts for Wednesday.

Forecast confidence lowers thereafter given temporal and spatial
discrepancies between the deterministic output of the major medium
range models. Based on signals noted in the naefs, I still have
confidence that ridging will attempt to reassert itself over the
southeast toward the end of the week heading into next weekend. With
some indication being noted that the diffuse boundary *may* try and
waffle back onshore, shower and thunderstorm probabilities will
remain above climatological values. However, I suspect the presence
of ridging should allow the diurnal trend to largely be maintained.

02

Marine
A light to moderate south to southwest wind flow continues through
Monday as high pressure slowly shifts east. A weak frontal boundary
stalls near the coast Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to
decreased winds and seas through midweek. An increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms can also be expected through midweek. A
generally light southerly flow develops late in the week into the
weekend. 13

Preliminary point temps pops
Mobile 88 73 85 70 10 30 50 30
pensacola 85 74 84 73 10 20 50 20
destin 83 76 82 75 10 20 40 10
evergreen 90 72 86 69 10 30 60 30
waynesboro 90 71 83 68 20 40 60 40
camden 91 72 84 68 10 40 60 40
crestview 90 72 87 70 10 20 50 20

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi54 min 78°F 80°F1014.3 hPa
PCBF1 39 mi48 min WSW 11 G 12 78°F 80°F1015 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi48 min SW 11 G 12 78°F 81°F1015 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 56 mi46 min SW 9.7 G 14 78°F 78°F3 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.0)77°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi43 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast80°F80°F100%1014.3 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi98 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast78°F76°F95%1014 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi1.7 hrsSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F74°F89%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4W3CalmN44S4S6S5S65SW7SW5SW654SW53CalmSW4SW7SW74SW5SW4
1 day agoCalmCalm4SE555S8S86S56S6SW53SW443SW5644534
2 days agoNW7
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5W4W43W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:20 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:26 PM CDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.20.30.40.50.50.50.60.60.50.50.40.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:08 AM CDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:30 PM CDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.30.60.91.21.41.71.81.91.91.91.71.51.310.70.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.