Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:40PM Sunday September 24, 2017 1:53 AM CDT (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:36AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1014 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thursday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1014 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis..High pressure ridging into the marine area from the northeast will continue through most of the period, with light to occasionally moderate easterly flow continuing over the marine area. Winds and seas highest on Sunday, before subsiding early to middle next week. Light offshore flow is expected to develop in the wake of a frontal passage around midweek, with northerly winds and seas then building into the latter part of the week and weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou town, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 240448 aac
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1148 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

06z issuance... GeneralVFR CIGS visbys expected through the
overnight hours. Local drops in visbys to MVFR levels possible
with fog development, but am expecting this to be isolated.

Another round of shra tsra are expected to form Sunday afternoon
bringing drops to MVFR levels, along with locally strong winds.

Best coverage is expected to be along and west of the tombigbee


Prev discussion issued 906 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Another round of isolated to scattered strong storms
developed across the region today, producing localized
occurrences of strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy rain
and small hail. Convection has since dissipated with loss of
daytime heating. Pops have been removed for the late evening
hours, but left a slight chance of showers and storms near the
coast during the 06-12z time frame, where isolated convection
could re-develop as an upper level low moves westward overnight.

We also made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures. 21
prev discussion... Issued 626 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00z issuance... Isolated shra tsra continue to move east over the
area, with greatest coverage and strength being west of the al fl
state line. Am expecting coverage and intensity to decrease
through the evening, with minimal to no activity by 03z. Localized
patchy overnight fog development possible after midnight, but do
not feel coverage intensity will impact any airport operations
across the area. Another round of shra tsra is possible Sunday
afternoon as an upper system moves west along the northern gulf
coast, but at this point, best coverage is expected to be along
and west of the tombigbee mobile rivers.

prev discussion... Issued 353 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
near term now through Sunday ... Thunderstorms are ongoing roughly
along and west of the interstate 65 corridor this afternoon, and
will continue to drift southwest before dissipating after sunset
late this evening. Stronger cells will remain capable of producing
gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.

Tonight into Sunday, the upper low currently positioned over the
florida panhandle continues to move west, ultimately settling over
the lower mississippi river valley by Sunday evening. With this
shift, a plume of deeper moisture (pwats around 1.8 to 2.0 inches)
moves into the local area from the south. Aided by dynamic support
from the upper low, showers and thunderstorms should become more
numerous on Sunday than they've been the past few days, with
activity starting offshore late tonight and gradually spreading
inland throughout the day Sunday. Some very patchy fog will remain
possible as well late tonight, ahead of any showers moving onshore
around daybreak. While the more saturated mid levels will limit
downburst potential, the lightning and locally heavy rainfall
threats will continue through the near term, particularly in any
stronger storms that form Sunday afternoon and evening.

Low temperatures tonight range from upper 60's inland to mid 70's
along the immediate coast. Highs on Sunday remain a bit cooler than
recent days given the greater coverage in clouds and rain, with mid
80's expected near the coast and upper 80's well inland. 49
short term Sunday night through Tuesday night ... An upper low
over the area will slowly drift west and weaken. As the low moves
west of the area on Monday, the gulf coast will be on eastern
side of the low. This along with better deep layer moisture will
allow for the development of scattered to locally numerous showers
and thunderstorms on Monday, becoming most numerous during the
afternoon hours. As the upper low moves west and weakens on
Tuesday, a drier airmass will move in from the north and east on
the western fringes of the circulation around hurricane maria off
the east coast. Highs on Monday will be slightly cooler due to
additional clouds and rain, before returning to near normal on
Tuesday. Lows remain in the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ... Upper ridging will build
over the area Wednesday into Thursday, maintaining dry and warm
conditions. Late in the week an upper trough is expected to dig
over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward
into the area late in the work week, with a cooler and drier
airmass moving in for the weekend. 13
marine... A surface ridge of high pressure remains in place over the
eastern CONUS and northern gulf through most of the forecast period,
with light to occasionally moderate easterly flow continuing into
early next week over our marine area. Still expecting some diurnal
influence near the coast, with winds being more northeasterly during
late night and early morning hours and southeasterly during
afternoon and evening hours. Conditions could reach exercise caution
levels Sunday, around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots, along
with seas building to around 3 to 4 feet. On top of this, could see
locally higher winds and seas in and around scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Winds and seas relax through the
early part of next week as hurricane maria moves north into the
western mid-atlantic and the pressure gradient relaxes over our
area. A weak frontal passage is then expected around midweek, with
light offshore flow developing in its wake. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi54 min 78°F 84°F1013.3 hPa (-0.8)
PCBF1 39 mi54 min ENE 5.1 G 8 79°F 1013.6 hPa (-0.3)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi54 min E 5.1 G 8 76°F 84°F1013.7 hPa (-0.5)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 56 mi64 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 81°F 83°F2 ft1012.5 hPa (-0.9)73°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi61 minE 610.00 miFair80°F66°F64%1013.4 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi58 minNE 410.00 miFair75°F61°F63%1013 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi59 minENE 410.00 miFair77°F66°F70%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4NE4E4NE3E5E6E76E5E9E9E6E9E10NE95E6NE4CalmNE45NE4NE7E6
1 day agoE4CalmCalmE3E4E3E3NE4NE6E7NE55S6S7S6SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N6
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmNW4N3N4NE4E4E556CalmCalm4SE7SE5E4CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Sun -- 04:53 AM CDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:23 PM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Click for Map
Sun -- 02:57 AM CDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:11 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.