Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:11PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 3:08 AM CST (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:02AMMoonset 6:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 946 Pm Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Rain, snow, light sleet likely and light freezing rain late in the evening, then chance of rain, slight chance of light freezing rain, snow and light sleet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 3 feet subsiding to around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 946 Pm Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis..A strong northerly wind flow will persist over the marine area through early Thursday then diminish and gradually become east to southeast late in the week as a surface ridge of high pressure builds east over the north central gulf. Winds become mostly south by late Sunday and continue into early next week ahead of another cold front approaching from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou town, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 170547 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1147 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... MVFR CIGS and visibilities through about 17.12z
followed byVFR conditions through 18.06z. Still expecting a mix
of light fzra ip sn through late evening and very early wed
morning transitioning over to mostly -sn overnight, moving east of
all terminal sites by after 17.12z. As a result expect a very
light glaze of ice over most equipment above the ground late this
evening and overnight including all bridges and overpasses
followed by a light accumulation of snow of 1 in or less on most
surfaces, thereafter. Winds will be north at 15 knots gusting to
20 to 25 knots through the 18.00z slowly diminishing through
18.06z. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 753 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... We continue to monitor the situation closely this
evening. Large area of snow currently over our southeastern
mississippi counties and spreading into interior southwest alabama
will continue to move east across the remainder of the area
through the evening hours. Light accumulations of snow are already
occurring across western portions of the forecast area. Periods
of heavy sleet have been reported along the leading edge of the
precipitation as it moves east. Up to around a tenth of an inch
sleet accumulation has already been reported on at least one
highway 43 bridge in from the thomasville area, as well as on
cars and grassy surfaces, but precipitation there has now changed
over to snow. Across wayne, choctaw, clarke, and wilcox counties
it is already cold enough (temperatures currently in the mid to
upper 20s) that the heavy sleet and accumulating snow is easily
sticking to bridges and overpasses.

Overall the forecast remains unchanged, we are still expecting up
to near one half inch of sleet accumulation, and generally one
half to 1 inch of snow over interior locations. Cannot rule out
localized totals of up to 2 inches in inland southwest and
south central alabama, mainly along and east of i-65.

So far not a lot of reports of freezing rain, although there is a
potential for that over coastal sections of the forecast area,
especially over the western florida panhandle, later this evening
and overnight.

Prev discussion... Issued 553 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... MVFR CIGS and visibilities through about 17.12z
followed byVFR conditions through 18.00z. Still expecting a mix
of light ip fzra through mid to late evening transitioning over
the mostly -sn by late this evening and overnight, moving east of
of all terminal sites by after 17.12z. As a result a very light
glaze of ice will be possible on most equipment above the ground
late this evening and overnight. Winds will be north at 15 knots
gusting to 20 to 25 knots through the 18.00z. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 405 pm cst Tue jan 16 2018
wintry weather to impact the region late this afternoon
through tonight...

near term now through Wednesday night ... Mid-afternoon surface
analysis shows the cold front has pushed through all but far
eastern portions of south central al and the northwest fl
panhandle. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s to around 40
degrees across much of the area behind the front, and near
freezing over our far northwestern zones near wayne and choctaw
counties. Regional radar imagery indicates that the leading edge
of precipitation is approaching wayne and choctaw counties as of
3:30 pm cdt. Precipitation is becoming enhanced over far southeast
tx and southern portions of la, and this is another area we will
be watching with interest as it approaches our region late this
afternoon and into the evening.

There are not too many changes with regards to our thinking with
the evolution of this winter weather event set to impact our
region though late tonight. We expect precipitation to increase in
coverage initially over southeast ms and interior southwest al
this afternoon, then expand east and southeast across the i-65
corridor this evening, and then across the eastern and
southeastern part of the CWA late this evening and after midnight,
before tapering from west to east after midnight to around
daybreak. A few models are showing enhanced ascent forcing
arriving near the i-65 corridor this evening as this area will be
in the right entrance region of the upper jet, so we will be
watching this region closely tonight for locally heavier
precipitation bands developing. The coldest profiles will be in
our northwest zones where precipitation should be in the form of
light snow. Farther south and east, precipitation should
initially start as a mix of light freezing rain and sleet, before
transitioning to sleet snow, then eventually all light snow or
snow flurries before precipitation ends. We increased snowfall
amounts a bit over the interior, indicating average amounts
between one half and one inch, with localized amounts near 2"
possible, primarily along and east of i-65 across interior
southwest and south central al where heavier bands could develop.

We will also monitor for potential of light glazing icing with
light freezing rain especially across southern and eastern
portions of our area tonight. We will continue to carry very light
(less than one tenth of an inch) of light freezing rain accumulation
in the forecast for these areas. There also could be some sleet
accumulations mixing in with the snow this evening which
complicates the forecast, and will need to watch sleet
accumulation trends closely too. A winter weather advisory
continues for all the forecast area until 6 a.M.

A hard freeze warning remains in effect tonight for a good portion
of the area (we added covington al and inland santa rosa fl to the
warning, which just leaves all of okaloosa fl and the rest of our
coastal zones out the warning). Lows tonight will fall into the
mid teens to around 20 in the warning area. Northerly winds of
10-20 mph will result in wind chills as low as around zero in our
far northwestern zones and the single digits to around 10 degrees
elsewhere. The wind chill advisory continues for all areas tonight
into Wednesday morning.

Clouds will decrease Wednesday, but the cold weather continues
into Wednesday night as a cold surface ridge of high pressure
builds over our region. Highs likely not to get out of the 30s
over most inland areas. A very cold night is expected Wednesday
night, with a hard freeze over all areas with lows in the mid
teens to around 20. 21
short term Thursday through Friday night ... Thursday into Friday,
the upper pattern becomes zonal over the southeast as the current
weather make moves off the east coast. Guidance has been consistent
in moving a surface ridge over the southeast lower mississippi river
valley in the near term and this is where the short term starts.

Some shortwave energy that has moved over the southern plains in the
near term begins to push east Thursday night on in the zonal flow,
pushing the surface high eastward, with the surface high becoming
centered over the sc ga fl coast by Saturday morning. This restores
a steady onshore flow over the lower mississippi river valley, then
al w-ern fl by Saturday morn. With that, moisture levels begin to
increase. Temps moderate upwards as the southerly flow becomes more
established over the forecast area, but doesn't quite get back to
seasonal levels Friday night.

With southerly flow off the gulf this time of the year comes the
possibility of sea fog. With the southerly flow being more organized
late Friday through Friday night, am expecting dense fog to become a
problem beginning Friday night. Water temps off the miss coast are
in the 50s, low 60s in the alabama coastal waters. Florida coastal
waters are in the mid 60s. At this point, best chance is mobile bay
and points west. 16
long term Saturday through Tuesday ... Saturday through Monday,
more shortwave energy that has moved over the western CONUS moves
east, organizing into a closed low as it moves east of the rockies
Sunday. A building upper ridge along the east coast deflects it
north-eastward as it moves over the plains. This system pushes a
weakening front across the forecast area Sunday night through Monday,
bringing the next round of precip to the area. With continued
southerly flow through the weekend ahead of the front, temps warm to
above seasonal levels, with upper 60s to around 70 likely for Sunday.

Surface high pressure moves over, then quickly east of the area
Monday through Tuesday. With weak to no cold advection behind the
front, temps drop to around seasonal for the beginning of the work
week.

Looking at fog problems, flow off the gulf continues through Sunday,
and with that, sea fog development. Do feel the fog will be dense
enough to cause problems over coastal counties and near-shore waters
and bays. 16
marine... Behind a front moving south across the marine portion
of the forecast area attm, strong northerly flow is overspreading
the marine portion of the forecast area. Strong offshore flow
continues into Wednesday night, then begins to ease as surface
high pressure moves east over the lower mississippi river valley.

This surface high moves east of the area by Friday, restoring a
light to moderate onshore flow for the weekend. A weakening front
will move over the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing a light
to moderate offshore flow to the area for the beginning of the
week.

With onshore flow returning by Friday night, warm gulf air over
cool near shore waters will bring the likelihood of dense fog
development to near coastal waters and ways to the area for the
weekend. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Hard freeze warning until 9 am cst Thursday for alz051>060-
261>264.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for alz051>060-
261>266.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am cst Wednesday for alz051>060-
261>266.

Hard freeze warning from 11 am Wednesday to 9 am cst Thursday
for alz265-266.

Fl... Hard freeze warning until 9 am cst Thursday for flz201-203.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for flz201>206.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am cst Wednesday for flz201>206.

Hard freeze warning from 11 am Wednesday to 9 am cst Thursday
for flz202-204>206.

Ms... Hard freeze warning until 9 am cst Thursday for msz067-075-076-
078-079.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for msz067-075-
076-078-079.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am cst Wednesday for msz067-075-076-
078-079.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for gmz630>636-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 39 mi50 min N 11 G 15 38°F 56°F1027.7 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi50 min NNE 12 G 17 39°F 55°F1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi75 minN 1710.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1028.8 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi2.2 hrsN 20 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy35°F28°F75%1029 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi73 minN 1410.00 miOvercast34°F27°F77%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmNE3CalmCalmSE7SE8SE7SE7SE7SE5SE5N3N10N13N12N17
G22
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N14N15N11N16
G23
N17N15
1 day agoE3NE3NE4CalmNE4NE6E6344CalmS4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoN10N9
G18
N11N10N10NE8N8N664N6N4N7NE5N5N4N5N4N4N5NE5NE5E3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:41 AM CST     0.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:01 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:08 PM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:52 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.40.30.30.20.10.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:01 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:56 AM CST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.10.90.70.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.10.20.40.60.811.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.