Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:41PM Friday May 25, 2018 1:37 PM CDT (18:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 3:31AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1139 Am Cdt Fri May 25 2018
Rest of today..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 10 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Seas around 7 feet building to around 10 feet. Dominant wave period 11 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 30 to 35 knots becoming east around 50 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds around 50 knots. Seas 11 to 13 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds around 40 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1139 Am Cdt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow continues through tonight before shifting to more easterly and increasing Saturday night. Winds and seas then see a more dramatic increase Sunday and Monday as sub-tropical storm alberto approaches from the south. Conditions during that period will be hazardous. This system is expected to move onshore late Monday evening, with winds and seas gradually subsiding Tuesday into the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou town, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 251813 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
113 pm cdt Fri may 25 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the afternoon hours with ifr lifr conditions possible at
times in and around storms.VFR conditions develop tonight and
continue through Saturday morning before showers and storms begin
to develop again by late Saturday morning. 13

Prev discussion issued 425 am cdt Fri may 25 2018
near term now through Friday night ... A southern stream trof of
low pressure, high in the atmosphere, is forecast to be positioned
from iowa to off the louisiana coast today. A deep layer moisture
profile remains in place with pwat values at unseasonably high
levels (generally between 1 and 2 standard deviations above the
climatological mean). Considering this, along with mid level
impulses rotating northeast on the east side of the upper trof, an
environment that destabilizes through the day and presence of
weak mesoscale boundaries to provide a focus for convection all
favors the development of scattered to potentially numerous
showers and storms. Effective warm rain processes suggest that the
stronger storms will be efficient heavy rain producers. The
result is the potential for localized flooding problems in lower
lying and poor drainage areas. A diurnal decrease in storm
coverage is expected going through the night.

Looking southward, a broad surface low centered near the eastern
coast of the yucatan peninsula of mexico has bursts of deep
convection to its east, out over the northwest caribbean. Storms
are disorganized at this time due to its close proximity to land.

However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development into the weekend as the low moves slowly
northward over the warm gulf waters. More on this in the short
term package below.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ... All eyes on the
gulf over the weekend, the low pressure system currently over the
eastern coast of the yucatan peninsula is forecast to ease
northward and emerge over the southern gulf during the day
Saturday. The low continues to track northward through Sunday. The
latest 25.00z ensemble means of the ECMWF and GFS are nearly on
top of one another showing the low then curving northwest by late
Sunday with a track closing in on the ms sound. As mentioned
above, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development to a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone
with probabilities of occurrence increasing to 90%. If named, it
will become alberto. As the northern periphery of the system nears
late in the weekend, the threat of heavy rain in squalls will be
increasing, and a flash flood watch remains in place over the
southern zones. Threat of high surf and coastal flooding
increases. High risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip
currents continues. A breakdown on various impacts will be listed
below. Stay tuned for the very latest updates on this system.

Long term Monday through Thursday ... The latest medium range
forecast shows the low center off the southeast la coast early
Monday morning tracking very slowly northwest only to be
positioned near slidell la Tuesday morning, moving to northern ms
Wednesday morning. On the present forecast track and the local
area on the wet east side of this system, the highest impact will
be the threat of significant to extreme flash flooding to start
off the week. There will continue to be a coastal flood threat,
rip current risk to remain high and if the track holds, isolated
tornadoes in the favored east to northeast quadrant early half of
week. 10
hydrology... Confidence continues to increase that a significant
rainfall event will impact our forecast area late this weekend into
early next week. GFS ensemble guidance and the 00z operational ecmwf
model are in relatively good agreement with slowly bringing 90l
slowly north northwest into the northern gulf of mexico by Sunday.

Still some uncertainty on the track Monday and Tuesday, though much
of the ensemble guidance generally keeps the low center either near
or northwest west southwest of our forecast area through early next
week. Abundant tropical moisture associated with this system will
bring potential for significant rainfall amounts especially heading
into Sunday through Tuesday. We continued to trend QPF near or
slightly above wpc guidance, and the latest storm total rainfall
will continue to advertise amounts from 4-8 inches over the interior
to 6-12 inches from southeast ms to southern coastal portions of
southwest al, and eastward across the fl panhandle. Locally higher
amounts (perhaps double the amounts above) will be possible given
the relatively slow movement of the system and the feed of deep
tropical moisture into the area. Will continue to highlight the
significant to extreme flooding threat in the local graphics. We
will keep the flash flood watch as is for now, where confidence is
currently the highest. 21
marine... A complicated marine forecast continues through early next
week, which will of course be ultimately dependent on the eventual
track of the tropical subtropical system currently located over the
eastern yucatan peninsula. We continue to expect winds to increase
to advisory thresholds offshore late Saturday evening into early
Sunday morning, with potential for gale force winds gusts Sunday
afternoon into Monday as the system approaches the marine area. A
persistent moderate to strong onshore flow then looks to prevail
Tuesday through Thursday. 21
the following is a break down of impacts and confidence levels for
each:
flash flood threat - confidence: high. Timing: beginning Saturday
evening through Tuesday evening. Affected area: the southern
portion of the area including extreme southeast mississippi,
extreme southwest alabama and the western florida panhandle. The
flash flood watch will likely need to be expanded northward on
subsequent shifts.

Coastal flooding - confidence: high. Timing: with onshore swell
and increasing onshore winds, the period from Saturday afternoon
into Tuesday evening has the potential for coastal flooding. A
coastal flood watch has been issued for this period with water
levels of 2 to 4 feet inundation (above ground level) is
expected. The time of maximum coastal water rises looks to be
Sunday continuing into Sunday night.

High surf - confidence: high. Timing: from Saturday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Surf heights of 5 feet or more will result in
pounding waves resulting in beach erosion. A high surf advisory
has been issued for this period.

Rip currents - confidence: high. A high risk of rip currents
remains in effect through the period.

Wind - confidence: low. Timing: this has been delayed a bit, but
strong winds around 30 mph are possible mainly over the coastal
portions mainly Sunday night. This depends entirely on the
movement and strength of the gulf system.

Severe storm potential - confidence: low. Timing: beginning as
early as Saturday night then increasing potential through Sunday
night. This depends on the movement and strength of the gulf
system.

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Tuesday morning for alz265-266.

High surf advisory from 1 pm Saturday to 7 pm cdt Tuesday for
alz263>266.

Coastal flood watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for alz263>266.

Flash flood watch from Saturday evening through Tuesday evening
for alz059-261>266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Tuesday morning for flz202-204-206.

High surf advisory from 1 pm Saturday to 7 pm cdt Tuesday for
flz202-204-206.

Coastal flood watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for flz202-204-206.

Flash flood watch from Saturday evening through Tuesday evening
for flz201>206.

Ms... Flash flood watch from Saturday evening through Tuesday evening
for msz078-079.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi98 min SE 1.9 G 6 83°F 84°F1016.4 hPa (-0.8)
PCBF1 39 mi98 min S 8 G 8.9 81°F 83°F1016.5 hPa (-1.2)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi98 min SW 9.9 G 11 82°F 84°F1016.5 hPa (-1.4)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 56 mi88 min WNW 18 G 21 75°F 1016.4 hPa72°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi45 minSSE 710.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1015.7 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi42 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F74°F70%1015.4 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi1.7 hrsSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F72°F68%1016.5 hPa

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Last 24hr6SW7S754SW43SE3NW4NW4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE43NE5S5SE8S7
1 day ago6S75533533SW5N34N5N5NE4NE4N5N4NE3NE3NE43S6S7
2 days ago6SE9S7S9S64SE64S4S3Calm4S44S4CalmS533SE4S5N44Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM CDT     0.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 AM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:27 PM CDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:49 PM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:47 AM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:31 AM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:37 PM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.80.91.11.11.11.110.90.80.70.50.40.40.30.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.