Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:41PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:14 PM CDT (18:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1034 Am Cdt Mon Sep 24 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1034 Am Cdt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis..A surface ridge stretching southwest along the appalachians will shift south to over the northern gulf coast. A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will become more southerly into mid week as a result.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou town, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 241751
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1251 pm cdt Mon sep 24 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
24 18z issuance... Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over the region through the early
evening hours. While the showers and storms are fairly numerous,
they have lined up in north-south oriented bands and moving north
across generally the same areas, so there are many locations with
no convection. With this, generalVFR to upper end MVFR
cigs visbys expected for much of the region, but drops to low end
MVFR and even ifr expected in and near the stronger storms through
early evening. Convection becomes more widely scattered after
sunset withVFR conditions generally prevailing. Some scattered
showers and storms expected to persist overnight however, becoming
more numerous toward daybreak (especially near the coast).

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected across much of
the area again on Tuesday. Surface winds primarily light south to
southeast through the period. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 626 am cdt Mon sep 24 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Scattered rainshowers with a few thunderstorms
will increase in coverage and strength into the afternoon. General
vfr to upper end MVFR CIGS visbys expected. Drops to low end MVFR
levels expected in the stronger storms late this morning and
afternoon. Impact to operations expected at times with the
increasing coverage today.VFR conditions expected overnight
tonight.

16
prev discussion... Issued 445 am cdt Mon sep 24 2018
near term now through Monday night ... A wet period is in store
for the near term. A combination of surface high pressure
stretching southwest along the appalachians and a mid level ridge
stretching west over the southeast will continue to pump moisture
off the gulf of mexico inland over the southeast and lower
mississippi river valley, with precip h20 values at or above 2.0".

Guidance is consistent in advertising instability from the moist
airmass over- riding, but still tempered by, subsidence from the
mid level ridge and bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms today through tonight. Looking at temperatures,
heating will be tempered this morning into the afternoon by the
increasing cloud cover and rain cooling, but am expecting enough
heating to allow temps to rise to around to several degrees above
seasonal levels (mid 80s along the coast to upper 80s inland)
today, and remain above for tonight lows, with the warming flow
off the gulf and cooling inhibiting cloud cover continuing.

With the convection streaming off the gulf, training of
thunderstorms and efficient rain production will allow for
nuisance flooding, especially over our coastal counties. Do not
feel a watch will be needed, but an extra eye on water issues will
be prudent. 16
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... The upper level
ridge over the northern gulf of mexico and deep south will persist
through Tuesday afternoon as a large upper trough passes over the
northern and central great plains. This ridge will then shift
slightly southeastward through midweek as the base of the upper
trough reaches the lower mississippi river valley region. The
surface ridge of high pressure across the southeast states will
weaken through midweek as a surface cold front associated with
the upper trough advances southeast. This front will exit the
great plains on Tuesday, reaching central mississippi and
northern alabama Wednesday afternoon before stalling.

This pattern supports a high chance of shower and thunderstorm
activity through the short term, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms forecast during the day Tuesday, followed by
isolated to scattered coverage during the overnight hours.

Numerous to definite showers and thunderstorms are forecast on
Wednesday, followed by scattered to numerous coverage during the
overnight hours. Additional widespread rainfall amounts through
the short term are expected to range from 0.5 to 1.0 inches, with
isolated amounts up to 2 inches are possible. 22
long term Thursday through Sunday ... The upper level ridge of
high pressure over the gulf of mexico on Thursday will slowly lift
back northward Friday through Sunday across much of the southeast
conus. The stalled surface cold front Thursday morning will waver
slightly north and south through the remainder of the week, but
should remain north of the forecast area. The surface ridge will
also build back northward across the southeast states through the
weekend. An unsettled weather pattern will remain in place, with
a 60-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday,
followed by a gradual decrease in rain chances Friday through the
weekend. Slightly above normal temperatures will persist through
the long term. 22
marine... A surface ridge stretching southwest along the
appalachians will rotate south over the western atlantic, shifting
a general southeasterly flow to a more southerly by the end of the
week. Wind speeds are expected to be generally light with an
occasionally moderate period, mainly today into tonight. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 85°F1016.7 hPa
PCBF1 39 mi44 min SSE 15 G 17 84°F 86°F1017.2 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi44 min ESE 11 G 17 86°F 87°F1017.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 56 mi34 min SW 7.8 G 12 79°F 1016.3 hPa75°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi21 minSE 910.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity82°F73°F77%1016 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi18 minSSE 19 G 250.25 miThunderstorm Rain and Breezy80°F69°F69%1016.4 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi79 minESE 810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity86°F76°F74%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE85SE9E10E46E5E5E4E4E4E3E5E4E4E6E4E5E5E8SE9SE8SE16
G23
SE9
1 day agoS7S55S5S5SE6E7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E6E5NE5NE5E6SE6E8SE76
2 days agoNE6E63CalmSE7SE5CalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmCalmE3E4E6E3NE3NE8E6NE3SE9S7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.