Monday, November20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 4:48PM Monday November 20, 2017 11:26 AM CST (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 950 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2017
Rest of today..East winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth.
Tonight..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Smooth becoming a light chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. A moderate chop becoming choppy.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Thursday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth.
Friday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 950 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis..Northerly winds and seas will continue to diminish this morning as a surface ridge of high pressure builds over the region. A light easterly wind will develop later today as the ridge of high pressure shifts east. A moderate to strong northerly flow is expected Wednesday through early Friday as a weak surface low develops over the northeast gulf and moves east.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 201436 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
836 am cst Mon nov 20 2017

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Have updated for the expiration of the freeze warning.

No other major changes. 29

Prev discussion issued 531 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...VFR CIGS visbys expected through the day as surface
high pressure passes north of the area, with a winds shift from
northeast to east the only real change. Tonight, the development
of a surface trough over the northeast gulf will bringing
increasing mid level cloud over the area along and southeast of
i65, but am not expecting this to impact operations, with cigs
remaining well above MVFR levels.

prev discussion... Issued 452 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
near term now through Monday night ... A shortwave system moves from
over tx eastward over the northern gulf before ultimately ending
up over the north-central gulf coast by Tuesday morn. This system
along with another, stronger system moving east over the
us canadian border, pushes a surface high from over the
mississippi river eastward, to off the the carolina coast. This
surface high gets a squeeze in the process, leaving a surface
ridge stretching west over the eastern CONUS and bring a general
easterly flow over the forecast area, especially coastal waters.

As the tx system moves over the gulf later today and tonight, it
begins to develop a surface trough over the northeastern gulf
tonight and with that, clouds spread north over areas along and
southeast of i65. Rain starts to spread north over along the
eastern boundary of the forecast area. Coastal areas of the
western florida panhandle may see some light shra, but am not
anticipating much inland penetration before sunrise. With the loss
of cool northerly push along with abundant heating from the sun
today, some areas see temps moderating upward (areas north of
highway 84) whilst the rest of the forecast area see highs around
the same as yesterday. Highs ranging from around 60 to 65 expected
today. Tonight sees the greatest rebound, especially areas
southeast of i65 as increasing clouds decrease overnight cooling.

Lows ranging from upper 30s northwest to upper 40s southeast. 16
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... An upper level
trough amplifies across the eastern half of the CONUS and gulf of
mexico, while upper level ridging persists across the western
portion of the CONUS through mid-week. This pattern opens the door
for several shortwaves to spill into the region during the short

Surface high pressure quickly departs the region early Tuesday and
is pushed into the western atlantic. A surface low in southern
canada associated with the aforementioned deep upper level trough
will swing a weak cold front down through the plains and mississippi
river valley region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a surface
low develops over the northeastern gulf during this timeframe (well
south and east of our marine area). The departing high and formation
of a low over the gulf allow moisture to briefly return across the
area on Tuesday, especially across the southern and eastern portion
of the area. Temperatures will respond to the increase in moisture
and will rise into the mid to upper 60s with a few spots hitting 70
on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered rain showers cannot be ruled out
Tuesday and Tuesday night due to wrap-around precipitation from the
surface low over the gulf. Any rain that does occur will generally
be east of i-65 with the bulk of the rain staying well east of our
area. Lows by Tuesday night will dip into the mid to low 40s west of
i-65 with upper 40s and low 50s east of i-65.

In the wake of the first shortwave and weak cold front, drier air
spills into our northwestern counties once again during the day on
Wednesday. There remains an outside chance of isolated showers
across the florida panhandle and south central alabama again on
Wednesday, but the remainder of the area will stay dry. This
moisture contrast will be reflected in the temperatures on Wednesday
as the northwestern portion of the local area stays dry and thus
will remain on the cooler side. Conversely, daytime temperatures
across the southeastern half of the area will rise into the upper
60s in response to the moisture. By Wednesday evening, temperatures
will dip into the 30s west of i-65, while only falling into the mid
to low 40s east of i-65. 07 mb
long term Thursday through Sunday ... The upper level trough
across the eastern half of the CONUS will slowly shift east toward
the western atlantic through the weekend. As this occurs, the upper
level ridge across the western half of the CONUS begins to meander
east toward the region late in the weekend and early next week.

Despite several more shortwaves moving through the trough, the
location of the trough (with respect to the local area) will keep
northerly flow into the region through the end of the work week.

This will continue to usher drier air into the local area and will
keep the forecast dry. High pressure builds back into the central
part of the CONUS mid-week and spreads east into the deep south late
in the week. Another surface low develops and quickly dives across
southern canada on Friday, which may drop yet another weak front
through the region later the weekend. However, there does not appear
to be much moisture return ahead of the front, thus will continue
a dry forecast through the weekend.

Thanksgiving will be cool with highs in the upper 50s west of i-65
with temperatures topping out in the mid to low 60s further east.

Saturday should be the warmest day as highs will top out in the
upper 60s and low 70s. Lows will fall into the 30s and 40s inland
each night with slightly warmer temperatures at the beaches. 07 mb
marine... Surface high pressure shifts east to off the carolina
coast, leaving a surface ridge over the eastern conus. This shifts
winds from northeast to east, decreasing with the shift. As a tx
upper system moves over the gulf, a surface trough develops over
the northeastern gulf, returning winds back to northerly, but
leaving them on the lighter side. More upper energy digging
southeast over the plains begins to develop a surface low over the
eastern gulf Wednesday night, strengthening the offshore flow
over area coastal waters in the process. Winds settle into the
weekend, but remain offshore as surface high pressure moves over
the plains, then stalls. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi45 min 51°F 65°F1023.5 hPa
PCBF1 39 mi39 min E 4.1 G 9.9 54°F 69°F1023.2 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi39 min E 4.1 G 9.9 56°F 68°F1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi34 minE 510.00 miFair55°F37°F51%1022.9 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi91 minENE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F34°F55%1023.5 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi31 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F34°F49%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN12N12N12N9N13N12N13
1 day agoS85S8SW8
2 days ago444S53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5S5S443SE6S74S75

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Mon -- 01:59 AM CST     0.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:16 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:20 PM CST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:43 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Click for Map
Mon -- 12:03 AM CST     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:08 PM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:44 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.