Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 3:44 AM   Moonset 3:53 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 259 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late this evening, then becoming light and variable after midnight, becoming southeast around 5 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog late this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 259 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 042046 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A general zonal flow pattern aloft prevails across the region this afternoon. Weak shortwave perturbations within this flow will translate over the area this afternoon while a seabreeze circulation advances northward across our inland zones. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over inland areas this afternoon through early this evening in association with this features. Will maintain low POPs (20-40%) mainly north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with convection gradually dwindling by around 9-10 PM this evening. Shortwave ridging aloft builds overhead tonight into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are anticipated tonight, but conditions will become favorable for the development of patchy to areas of fog, some of which could become locally dense late tonight into early Sunday morning. The mid level flow pattern will transition more southwesterly by Sunday afternoon as shortwave ridging aloft shifts to our east and the next trough translates over the Plains states. The mid level flow becomes somewhat diffluent over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL which favors the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s over inland locations and in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Highs on Sunday once again range in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees inland and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and beaches. The rip current risk remains MODERATE along area beaches through the remainder of the weekend. /21

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Another chance for isolated showers and storms will be possible on Monday afternoon over interior portions of the area as another weak shortwave feature moves over the area. Upper level ridging will then build in on Tuesday and Wednesday with a more zonal pattern returning by the end of the week. With the subsidence in place, we expect mostly dry conditions through at least Wednesday.
The next chance for isolated convection returns for inland areas on Thursday afternoon as upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold front begins to approach from the west. Persistent onshore flow through the period will result in increased moisture later in the week and storm coverage is expected to increase to around 20-40% as the cold front pushes into the area Friday and into Friday night. The front should move east across our area by early Saturday morning with dry conditions likely returning by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week as the upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures will also linger in the upper 60s to 70s both Wednesday and Thursday nights. Relatively cooler temperatures are anticipated Friday given the increased rain chances and cloud cover with notably cooler temperatures expected on Saturday in the wake of the frontal passage. /14

MARINE
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 feet by the early to middle part of the week. 96/21



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 86 69 85 70 86 72 87 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 70 83 70 83 72 83 73 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 71 81 72 82 74 83 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 65 89 65 88 66 89 68 91 / 30 20 10 20 0 10 0 10 Waynesboro 64 88 65 87 67 90 69 91 / 20 30 10 20 0 10 0 10 Camden 65 88 65 86 65 89 68 90 / 20 30 20 20 0 10 0 10 Crestview 65 88 64 88 65 87 67 88 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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