Saturday, May27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cinco Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:42PM Saturday May 27, 2017 10:39 AM CDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 9:51PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 937 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 937 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate south to southwest wind flow will continue over the marine area through Monday as high pressure slowly shifts east of the area. A weak frontal boundary will stall near the coast Monday night into Tuesday leading to a decrease in winds and seas through midweek. Better rain chances can be expected early in the week as the weak front nears the coast. A better onshore flow can be expected later in the week as high pressure becomes reestablished over the north central gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Bayou, FL
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location: 30.39, -86.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 271533 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1033 am cdt Sat may 27 2017

Discussion See updated information below.

Update Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to add a small chance for a brief shower or two for most locations
in the forecast area this morning. With ample moisture in the
lower levels combined with weak layer lift mostly trapped below a
good capping inversion during the morning hours this pattern will
continue to result in a few brief light showers or light
sprinkles for most areas this morning. With better mixing in the
boundary layer from daytime heating in the afternoon rain chances
and low clouds will decrease in coverage by mid to late afternoon
and continue through the evening hours. 32 ee

Marine Did a quick update to the current marine forecast
mainly to increase winds slightly mostly along the coast and over
inland bays and sounds due to local seabreeze effects generated by
daytime heating. Similar to yesterday small craft should exercise
caution over most areas in the mobile bay during the afternoon and
early evening hours. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 632 am cdt Sat may 27 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance... Ifr MVFR conditions with low clouds this morning
will becomeVFR by this afternoon. Another round of low clouds can
be expected tonight into the Sunday morning. 13
prev discussion... Issued 354 am cdt Sat may 27 2017
near term now through Saturday night ...

surface and upper level ridging will continue across the area today
before gradually shifting eastward tonight. Meanwhile, mostly cloudy
skies can be expected this morning as low level moisture around 925
mb is advected into the area. Skies will become partly cloudy
through the morning as mixing increases. Another dry day expected
with the upper ridge overhead and strong subsidence continuing.

Highs this afternoon will warm 4-5 degrees over those observed on
Friday as 850 mb temps warm. Higher dewpoints will also move into
the area through the day, creating heat index values in the low to
mid 90s by the afternoon.

The upper and sfc ridge begin to move east of the area tonight. This
will continue to bring moisture back into the region with another
round of low clouds expected overnight. Lows tonight will range from
the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast. 13
short term Sunday through Monday night ...

ridging, both at the surface and aloft, will begin to weaken and
slide east Sunday as a shortwave trough pushes into the mid-
mississippi valley. This is expected to aid in pushing a cold front
into the mid-south Sunday evening and south east of the natchez
trace by Monday morning. Moisture will start to increase as the
ridging retreats, resulting in forecast precipitable water values
approaching 2 to 3 standard deviations above climatological means by
Sunday evening.

I think Sunday will largely remain dry across our area. A few of the
convection allowing models are hinting that a few showers or
thunderstorms could develop. I suppose this is plausible given
weakening ridging and increasing low-level moisture. However,
forecast soundings continue to strong a "fairly healthy" subsidence
inversion just below 850 mb. This is evidence of lingering ridging
over the region and should preclude much in the way of convection.

I'll go below precipitation probabilities in the model blends, but
maintain non-zero odds of seeing convection Sunday afternoon
(especially north west).

Odds of seeing precipitation increase Sunday night into Monday as
the cold front moves into the forecast area. Diminishing cross-
isobaric flow Monday will result in the front's forward speed
slowing as it heads toward the gulf coast. Ample instability,
moisture, and forcing should be present by Monday afternoon to
result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and

Convective coverage should be the greatest from southeast
mississippi into interior portions of the forecast area. Naefs
integrated water vapor transport suggests values approaching 3
standard deviations above climatological means in this region.

Convective coverage should diminish somewhat after sunset Monday,
despite the presence of increased synoptic scale forcing. 02
long term Tuesday through Friday ...

precipitation probabilities should remain elevated through mid-week
as the cold front slowly sinks offshore. With the departure of broad
upper-level troughiness over the area, the front should gradually
dissipate. Less convective coverage is then expected for Thursday
and Friday as ridging attempts to reassert itself across the
region. Most of the convective development for days 6 and 7 should exhibit
a stronger diurnal trend. 02

a light to moderate southwest wind flow will continue through Sunday
as high pressure shifts east of the area. A weak cold front will
stall along the coast Monday night and will have little effect on
winds and seas through late Tuesday. It will bring an increase in
rainfall coverage. Winds become light and variable on Tuesday due to
the proximity of the front. Surface high pressure becomes
established on Wednesday with a return to more of a normal sea-
breeze pattern by late week. 13

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi58 min 80°F 79°F1019.3 hPa
PCBF1 39 mi52 min W 6 G 6 76°F 79°F1019.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 51 mi52 min WSW 7 G 8 77°F 79°F1019.8 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 56 mi50 min S 3.9 G 3.9 77°F 78°F2 ft1018.8 hPa (+1.7)74°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi47 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F75°F77%1019.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL6 mi42 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F70%1019.1 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL7 mi45 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F68%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hr5S8S86S56S6SW53SW443SW56445344W3CalmN44
1 day ago5
2 days agoW7W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Sat -- 01:14 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:35 PM CDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Sat -- 01:02 AM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:39 PM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.