Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 5:24 AM   Moonset 7:19 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 338 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 338 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday.

FXUS64 KMOB 072055 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 355 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper level ridge from the Gulf into the southeast states will slowly translate eastward through Wednesday. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer- like pattern. Despite plenty of moisture, the lack of a forcing mechanism along with the subsidence from the ridging aloft will keep rain chances very isolated on Wednesday with the highest chances (~20%) across far inland areas. Temperatures will be even warmer on Wednesday with the increased subsidence lower rain coverage. Highs will climb to around 90 across inland areas to mid 80s near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s inland to low to mid 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Through the Short Term, upper level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will bring zonal flow to the Southeast. Several rounds of shortwaves move either through this zonal flow, or through an upper trough over the northeastern quarter of the Conus. The biggest concern in the Short Term is a shortwave system passing over the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning(more below). A cold front that has moved to northern portions of the Southeast shifts south to over the northern Gulf of Mexico behind the passing shortwave system Friday into Friday night before stalling over the northern Gulf by Saturday morning.

Taking a closer look at the shortwave system passing Thursday/Thursday night, there is a possiblity of strong to severe storm. Looking at the ingredients, good instability is present, with guidance advertising SBCapes averaging around 2500-3000J/kg Thursday afternoon. There is a decrease overnight, but SBCapes average around 2000J/kg overnight. Good, mainly linear wind shear is present, with guidance advertising EBWD shear values averaging 50-60kts, though helicities are marginal, with 0-1km helicities under 100m^2/s^2. Mid level lapse rates average between 7.5C and 8C per km. Guidance is also advertising a quick passage of upper level divergence Thursday night as an upper jet moves through, with the current timing averaging placing this divergence over the forecast area around 06z/1am. All in all, the forecast is shaping up for a squall line to organize west or northwest of the forecast area Thursday afternoon, then pass over the forecast area between 8pm and 4am. Damaging winds, look to be the primary threat. Hail is secondary, though with the relatively quick passage of the system, limited time aloft may temper size. Also, the relatively quick passage of the line is expected to limit rainfall amounts over most of the area. There is a small possibility of overrunning convection on the front as it sags south behind the main system. At this time, guidance is focusing the highest rainfall amounts just north of the forecast area. With the growing season in full effect and 1hr FFG values above 3", am not expecting water issues other than ponding in poor drainage areas.

Not to forget, temperatures above seasonal norms ahead of the front see a drop to around to a bit below behind. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 Thursday drop into the around 80 to mid 80s for Friday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s Wednesday night drop into the mid 50s to around 60 Friday night.
/16

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another passing shortwave system will bring rain to the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. Enough instability will be present for rumbles, but guidance is meh with enough for strong to severe storms at this time. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms through the period.
/16



MARINE
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday. /13



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 73 89 74 88 69 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 20 60 40 0 0 Pensacola 74 85 76 86 72 83 62 81 / 10 10 0 20 50 60 0 0 Destin 75 84 76 84 74 82 64 80 / 0 10 0 20 40 60 0 0 Evergreen 69 90 71 89 66 81 54 80 / 0 10 10 60 70 50 0 0 Waynesboro 70 91 71 90 65 81 53 80 / 0 10 10 50 70 20 0 0 Camden 69 90 71 88 65 79 53 78 / 0 20 10 70 70 30 0 0 Crestview 69 89 71 89 68 83 55 82 / 0 10 0 40 50 60 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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