Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 4:23 AM   Moonset 5:08 PM

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GMZ632 Expires:202405052215;;657990 Fzus54 Kmob 050954 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 454 am cdt Sun may 5 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz631-632-052215- southern mobile bay-mississippi sound- 454 am cdt Sun may 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. A moderate chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy.Thursday - South winds around 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 454 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KLIX 050832 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 332 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak ridging remains over the area today and tomorrow, providing warm temperatures to continue to build over the area. The subsequent downstream surface high pressure over the Atlantic will keep providing warm and moist air advection into the area. The pumping in of warm and moist air at the surface will create adequate instability (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE) across the area ahead of a decaying storm complex from Texas. With the instability in place and the forcing from a potential outflow boundary from the storm complex, the western and northwestern portions of the area could see scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary. Those cells will be competing with the subsidence of the ridge, so that is mainly why the coverage should be scattered in nature. Needless to say, the CAPE and lack of wind shear with the suppression from the ridge supports maybe a strong storm or two, with a marginally severe storm possible in the early afternoon as the outflow from the complex passes through.

Monday looks to similar to Sunday. Slight ridging is still expected to be over the area with continued onshore flow. The only discernible difference is that we will not have a decaying storm complex coming our way. So, although we will have adequate instability again (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE), a lack of a trigger like an outflow boundary and the suppression from the ridge will keep rain coverage very isolated to scattered at most.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Much of the long term will be dominated by ridging over the northeast gulf. This will keep us mainly dry and and very warm over the next week. We will continue to get warmer and more humid over the week, with potential heat indices getting over 100 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be near or over 10 degrees warmer than average next Tuesday through Thursday. That first stretch of "summer-like" heat catches people offguard since we have not been acclimated to it yet, so make sure you're not caught off guard by the first shot of summer heat.

There is some indications that a cold front will make its way down here towards the end of the week on Friday. With it being 5+ days out, there is some uncertainty around this occurring. We are starting to get into that time of year where fronts stall out before making it this far south, so do not be surprised if that one does not make it down here. If it does, expects showers and thunderstorms along it with the very warm and moist air ahead of it and a slight cool down for the weekend into the upper 70s and low 80s.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The only ongoing flight restrictions are MVFR to IFR visibilities at KMCB, where evening rainfall occurred. Those conditions could deteriorate further toward sunrise, with LIFR or VLIFR conditions at least possible, although probabilities aren't particularly high. At remaining terminals, anticipate MVFR to potentially IFR conditions to redevelop around 10z, with conditions improving somewhat between 14-15z.

The forecast scenario for the daytime hours Sunday is going to look a lot like Saturday. Another shortwave is expected to slide overtop the ridging over the Gulf. That will probably produce scattered SHRA/TSRA again, potentially as early as 15z near KBTR.
Probabilities are high enough to mention again at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC.
While the threat isn't zero at remaining terminals, it is too low to mention in the body of the forecast. Similar to the last couple days, as well, convection should dissipate prior to sunset Sunday.
VFR conditions are anticipated during the evening hours Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The entire forecast period will be dominated by ridging and onshore flow. This will lead to fairly benign marine conditions for today and the upcoming week. There are indications of a potential frontal passage at the end of the week on Friday, but due to how far out it is and the time of year, there is a bit of uncertainty at this time for that.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 84 66 85 69 / 60 20 40 0 BTR 87 71 88 73 / 60 20 30 0 ASD 87 71 88 72 / 30 10 20 0 MSY 87 73 87 75 / 30 10 20 0 GPT 86 72 84 73 / 20 10 20 0 PQL 88 70 86 71 / 10 10 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Pascagoula
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Sun -- 04:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:47 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pascagoula, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:59 AM CDT     -0.12 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:52 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM CDT     0.15 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:33 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:04 PM CDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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