Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:22 AM

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GMZ632 Expires:202404290315;;527655 Fzus54 Kmob 281427 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 927 am cdt Sun apr 28 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz630>632-290315- northern mobile bay-southern mobile bay-mississippi sound- 927 am cdt Sun apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 927 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis - A moderate to strong southeasterly wind flow pattern will persist over the marine area through Sunday night. Southeasterly winds gradually diminish with subsiding seas during the early to middle part of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KLIX 282013 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Some isolated showers and occasional thunderstorm is ongoing now though the next few hours due to some warm advection but not a lot of environmental support for these storms so they should be fairly weak and short lived with a few spots accumulating up to maybe 0.1 in of rain.
Otherwise, the other concern for the very short term is the elevated gusty winds due to a tightened pressure gradient between low pressure up to our northwest and high pressure to our east. With high pressure drifting eastward, winds have decreased slightly. But still is gusty at times, so will let the current wind advisory ride though expiration.
Also, due to the southeasterly winds, eastern facing shores will have some slight coastal flooding issues with the wind piling the water up during a high tide cycle later this evening. Tides should peak early tonight and then begin dropping. As the winds should be on the decrease by the time the next high tide cycle rolls though, it'll be allowed to expire this evening.

Moving into tomorrow morning, a line of convection is forecasted to move though the area. Timing is still a bit uncertain as it depends on the formation of convection in eastern Texas and how quickly it then moves here. Right now there are a few storms starting to bloom up at the tail end of a decaying line of convection near eastern TX/western LA. CAMs currently have the line coming in a bit earlier (14-15z in entering the CWA) but the globals/NBM has it a bit later. Biggest concern for this line will be the potential for heavy rain. Although it has been relatively dry (other than today), these storms will likely be efficient rainmakers. PW values of around 1.3-1.5in and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE should be sufficient to maintain these storms along with forcing from a shortwave passing though Arkansas/N Louisiana. Biggest unknown will be just where the heaviest rain will drop. Although this line should be relatively progressive, highly efficient rainfall could easily overwhelm localized areas. The best severe convective potential appears to be just to our west but definitely can't rule out some strong storms or maybe a severe one or two. As it continues to push eastward into our area, the environmental support will continue to decrease so the current thinking is it'll weaken as it moves eastward towards Mississippi but if it gets organized enough in east TX/west LA it could maintain itself a bit further. Once the line passes though it'll have a minor impact on the lows tomorrow night.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Going into the day on Tuesday, we get right back into onshore return flow following showers/storms the day prior, with isolated showers around within increasing deep rich Gulf return flow. No adjustments needed against NBM PoPs introducing around 30-40% chances primarily in the afternoon following peak diurnal heating. Might see a few intervals of disorganized showers/storms again on Wednesday in a progressive WSW/ENE flow and embedded subtle H5 impulses ride the flow, but the main storm track will remain well to our west and north as ridging dominates the SE US, providing multiple rounds of severe weather targeting the Plains states. Seeing some long-range trends hint at a front slowing/stalling across the area late week into the weekend, and with persistent H5 impulses riding the quasi- zonal flow aloft may introduce periods of showers/storms, perhaps an uptick in coverage this weekend. Too soon to narrow down timing/specifics, but will mention that there are no major indications of widespread heavy rain/severe weather outside of hit- or-miss shower/storm chances. Otherwise, only notable edits in the long range were to nudge up temperatures slightly above deterministic suggested values, with many areas reaching the mid 80's to some upper 80's especially by late week, persistently around 3-8 degrees above average for this time of the year.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Terminals will generally remain in low VFR to MVFR conditions for ceilings today along with very gusty conditions with southerly/southeasterly winds of 15-20kts with gusts in excess of 30 kt possible. The winds will slack a bit in the overnight hours but the next big concern is a line of showers and storms moving through the area. The timing is still a bit iffy but it will enter the western terminals within the forecast cycle so attempted to time the arrival of storms, but will need more refinements as the event gets closer. -BL

MARINE
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong winds up to 35-40 knots remain on the coastal waters through late tonight before winds start to slowly decrease. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow morning as a line is forecasted to pass though the area from the early to mid morning hours though the afternoon. By the time it makes it to the Gulf waters, it likely will not be too strong but can't completely rule that out. There might be a need for exercise caution headlines at some point tomorrow night, but overall the conditions will become more benign with light onshore flow. -BL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 78 62 84 / 10 90 60 40 BTR 70 82 66 87 / 20 90 40 50 ASD 70 83 65 85 / 10 80 60 50 MSY 72 83 68 84 / 10 80 50 50 GPT 70 81 66 82 / 10 60 60 50 PQL 67 83 65 84 / 0 40 50 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058- 070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Point of Pines, Bayou Cumbest, Mississippi, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 02:02 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM CDT     2.39 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:32 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM CDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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