Saturday, February24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Springs, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 5:52PM Saturday February 24, 2018 9:43 AM CST (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 929 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 929 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis..Persistent onshore flow will continue into early Sunday. A cold front will move off the coast late Sunday but become stationary in the northern gulf Monday before moving north as a warm front Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Springs, MS
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location: 30.39, -88.8     debug

Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 241414
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
814 am cst Sat feb 24 2018

Sounding discussion
Column is drier than 12 hrs ago, but still a bit more moist than
same time yesterday. Precipitable water sitting at 1.40 inches
which is well above normal for this time of year, and while not a
record, is above the 90th percentile for this date. Low level
temperatures also remain anomalously high, more typical of late
april or may than late february. Concerning convective potential
today, we've got the moisture and there's a bit of instability, so
we're just waiting on lift. That lift should come in the form of
daytime heating this afternoon and should be enough to fire off
some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Stronger lift
is expected to remain off to our northwest today along the cold

Prev discussion issued 441 am cst Sat feb 24 2018
synopsis... Deep southwest flow in the mid levels can easily be
seen on all WV channels. This is due the the deep trough located
over the rockies with the base of the trough axis running through
the four corners region and the large ridge that still resides
over the western atlantic and into the extreme southeast CONUS and
gom. Over the sfc at 6z the bermuda ridge remains in place
centered between bermuda and the east coast. A cold front was
draped back to the southwest from WV to the arklamiss while a weak
sfc low is beginning to take shape over the arklatex. Cab
short term... Quiet night as most of the shra activity came to an
end. There were still a few light shra streaming north across
coastal ms and la. Areas of light fog and low clouds have been
impacting much of the region.

Forecast hasn't changed much. The ridge and bermuda high that have
dominated the region for the last week or so is finally beginning to
lose some of its grip on the area today, well at least the ridge is.

As mentioned earlier deep southwest flow in the mid levels is in
place across much of the CONUS east of the ms and as the S W makes
its way east out of the rockies and into the central and northern
plains today it will further suppress the ridge. This S W is expected
to be the catalyst in bringing active weather across the mid ms
valley and into the tn oh valleys both in the form of severe weather
and heavy rain. It will also aid in lowering heights across our
region today and tonight. This may lead to a few shra and possibly a
tsra or two today however the best chance for storms across the
region will be tonight and again tomorrow into tomorrow night as
this system finally helps to drive a cold front into the region.

There is really not much support over the region outside of just
having a very moisture loaded airmass and mesoscale features that
could get shra and maybe a few tsra going today, but most likely
shra. Broad lift and no real ll convergence again suggest mostly
shra today but that could change tonight as the front tries to

The moderate onshore flow around the bermuda high will continue to
pump moisture in across the region through tonight while the
southwest flow continues to stream pac moisture in at the mid and
upper levels. Pws could climb into the 1.6-1.9 range and this would
easily be abv the top 10% and could even be a new record. Combine
that with the rrq of the upper jet leading to broad diffluence aloft
and the recipe is being set for a bout of moderate to heavy rain
tonight and or maybe more so late tomorrow and into Sunday night.

The front will approach northwestern portions of the CWA overnight
and this could provide the ll convergence and forcing needed to get
some decent storms which will be efficient rain producers. Lift
increases in the mid levels due to a few weak impulses making its
way across the area along with h5 winds increasing to around 55-
60kts as well.

All that said there are a few issues though with respect to rain
locations and amounts. First the front will begin to slow down if
not stall as the sfc low it's associated with pulls way off to the
north into the great lakes. In addition we remain in southwest flow
so this will also aid in the front losing its support and it isn't
until the next S W comes across the mid ms valley late Sunday and
Sunday night when the front will finally get another push southward.

As for tonight where the front is, along it and just to the north,
will be where the heaviest rain will occur and this may be north
and northwest of our area. As the support pulls out and the front
stalls there will likely be a lull in activity early Sunday.

There is still a good chance of light shra across much of the
region but moderate to heavy rain may be a little hard to come by
as ll convergence will be gone and we may actually be dealing with
divergence through the first half of the day. Once the front
begins to move back to the south, the front and the increase in
mid level support will get shra and tsra again. This looks to be
possibly as early as Sunday afternoon and through the night.

As for severe weather, we still look to be lacking instability both
today and tomorrow. Mid level lapse rates are not impressive around
6 c km. Ll winds are not responding and ll convergence wont be great
either, even with the front. However, moderate to heavy rain will
be a concern. If the front gets far enough south tonight then we
could see one bout of moderate to heavy rain tonight and another
late tomorrow and overnight Sunday. Right now feel the best
chance for the heavy rain will be with Sunday and Sunday nights
activity as we will finally have the front to work with and more
mid level support.

Long term... Heading into next week the cold front will push all the
way into the gulf Monday and we will dry out behind the front. This
looks to be short lived though as the front will quickly retreat
back to the north Monday night. This will lead to onshore flow
returning. In addition the mid level ridge which did get suppressed
will still be around and start to build back Tuesday and into
Wednesday which will again lead to above avg temps. There are
indications that a strong front will finally move through late this
week which could cool the area back down to normals but ahead of is
we would see another round of shra and tsra and this could even
bring a round of severe weather with it. It will be one we keep a
close eye on over the next few days. Cab
aviation... Expect MVFR to ifr conditions this morning as patchy
fog and low ceilings are being reported at most sites this morning.

Expect conditions to improve later on this morning to MVFR toVFR
conditions. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout
the entire day but mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms
could be in greater coverage late tonight. This will have to be
monitored through future TAF updates. 13 mh

no major changes to the forecast this morning as onshore flow
continues ahead of a cold front slowly making its way south. Have
added exercise caution headlines for portions of the coastal waters
for today. As stated in previous forecast the air mass is quite
conducive for waterspout development. This will have to be watched
again today. Expect this onshore flow to continue through at least
Sunday before the front makes it into the coastal waters. The front
returns north as a warm front with a return to deep onshore fetch
later Tuesday and particularly Wednesday ahead of the next front.

Decision support...

dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: radar support and monitoring marginal risk conditions.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 81 62 67 55 40 90 90 80
btr 82 64 71 58 30 70 80 80
asd 81 68 76 63 40 50 70 80
msy 82 69 78 65 30 40 60 80
gpt 79 69 74 64 40 40 60 80
pql 80 69 77 63 40 30 60 80

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 13 mi43 min 70°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 20 mi43 min SE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1021.6 hPa (+0.7)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 28 mi43 min S 8 G 12 74°F 73°F1020.5 hPa (+0.8)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 32 mi73 min SE 11 1021.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 35 mi73 min SSE 11 73°F 1021.3 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi43 min SE 13 G 14 72°F 1021 hPa (+0.8)69°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 42 mi73 min SE 12 69°F 1021 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 43 mi43 min S 5.1 G 7 69°F 66°F1021.5 hPa (+0.8)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 43 mi43 min SSE 15 G 16 73°F
PTOA1 45 mi43 min 69°F 66°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 46 mi43 min 73°F 63°F1021.3 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Dock C, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS7 mi47 minS 510.00 miFair75°F69°F84%1020.6 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS14 mi50 minSSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds76°F70°F82%1020.2 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS15 mi50 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F68°F77%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE9
1 day agoSE11
2 days agoSE10

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Springs, Mississippi
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Ocean Springs
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Sat -- 01:34 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:49 AM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:28 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:54 PM CST     1.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Biloxi, Biloxi Bay, Mississippi
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Sat -- 01:34 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:49 AM CST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:28 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:12 PM CST     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.