Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 4:15 AM   Moonset 5:00 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 356 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots this evening, becoming light and variable, then becoming southeast around 5 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 356 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 052058 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across inland areas through late this afternoon then fade away after sunset.
Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is possible tonight which will clear around daybreak on Monday. A weak shortwave will pass to our northwest on Monday, providing enough lift for more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest coverage will be northwest of I-65 where the greater lift will be.
Outside of isolated to scattered convection, it will remain warm with highs on Monday in the mid and upper 80s inland to low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak upper level ridging will begin to build into the Gulf Coast on Tuesday while a persistent onshore flow continues to advect moisture into the region. This pattern will result in another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly for interior areas on Tuesday. Any convection that develops should generally follow a diurnal pattern with activity tapering off through the evening. By Wednesday, the upper level ridging becomes more defined and the associated subsidence will keep conditions dry through the day. Temperatures will be on the rise through the middle of the week with highs reaching into the middle and upper 80s on Tuesday and the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday afternoon. These temperatures combined with the humid conditions will allow heat index values to rise into the 93-98 degree range on Wednesday so it will feel even warmer than the ambient temperature. Overnight lows will also be rather warm. Lows Monday night will fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s with temperatures lingering in the lower 70s for most locations on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. /14



LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)

The pattern will begin to change towards the end of the week as a late season cold front approaches and moves into the region.
Upper level ridging quickly slides east on Thursday as a longwave trough pushes out of the North Central states and swings over the eastern US on Friday. This will result in zonal flow with a few embedded impulses becoming more northwesterly as the base of the trough moves over the Southeast on Friday. Down at the surface, a low pressure will lift northeastward across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region with it's associated cold front expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday. Current guidance has trended a bit faster with the overall progression of this system, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. The better forcing is expected to remain to our north, but given that there will be plenty of instability and increasing shear across the area, we could see a few strong to perhaps severe storms during the Thursday evening into Friday timeframe with gusty winds and hail being the main concerns. Drier and cooler conditions are anticipated Friday night behind the front. As we head into the weekend, the deterministic guidance begins to diverge with regards to the location frontal boundary and lingering rain chances. For now, have maintained mostly dry forecast through the weekend. Temperatures will also be notably cooler with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s. /14

MARINE
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 69 85 71 86 72 88 73 88 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 71 83 72 84 73 85 75 85 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 20 Destin 71 81 73 82 74 83 76 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 67 88 67 89 69 90 71 90 / 10 20 0 20 0 10 0 40 Waynesboro 67 89 68 89 70 92 71 90 / 10 30 0 30 0 0 10 40 Camden 66 87 67 89 70 91 70 88 / 30 20 0 30 0 10 10 50 Crestview 65 88 67 87 68 89 70 89 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Sun -- 04:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM CDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris, The Narrows, Florida, Tide feet

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