Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM   Moonset 1:38 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 313 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots early this evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Friday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 313 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 021958 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast area remains between an upper ridge along the east coast and troughing over much of the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure off the southeast coast will keep southerly flow over the area through the next couple of days. Weak ripples in the southwest flow aloft may provide enough forcing for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. However these storms will generally be short-lived given the influence of the ridge. The better chances for this activity will be along our western and northern zones. Similar conditions are anticipated for Friday, though the coverage of storms may be a tad higher due to greater available moisture as southerly flow persists. For both days, activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s, though dewpoints will remain in the 60s, keeping heat indices from climbing above the 90 degree mark.

As for the overnight hours, the potential for fog will exist again tonight, with the better chances closer to the coast. Ensemble probabilities show less chance (~30%) for fog tonight, compared to yesterday's forecast, but given light winds and overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 60s, I wouldn't be surprised if locally dense fog occurs. Due to a lower confidence, will hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, but one may be needed before the morning commute. /73

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Flow aloft will become more zonal by Saturday, with persistent southerly flow allowing a steady stream of moisture across the area. Several shortwaves will move through the zonal flow aloft over the weekend and aid in the development of diurnally driven convection both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. As is typically the case, locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds will be possible with any storm that does develop. Given the lack of any large scale forcing, convection will remain disorganized and relatively short-lived. Storms will diminish shortly after sunset, with the loss of daytime heating.

As we head into the new work week, upper ridging will build into the area, keeping the area rainfree through at least mid week.
With several days of continuous southerly flow, along with upper level height rises, above normal conditions are anticipated for much of next week. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the hottest day of the period expected on Wednesday. Given the moisture in place, heat indices will near the triple digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s, providing some relief to the hot conditions. /73

MARINE
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Patchy fog, dense in some locations, will be possible over bays, sounds, and near shore waters on Friday. Any fog that does develop will dissipate by the mid to late morning hours. Light onshore winds will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. Slightly higher winds (up to 15 knots at times) will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 84 67 85 67 86 68 86 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 82 69 84 68 84 70 84 / 10 0 10 10 0 10 0 0 Destin 68 81 70 82 69 83 71 82 / 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 65 88 65 88 64 89 65 88 / 10 10 20 30 20 10 10 10 Waynesboro 66 84 64 88 64 88 66 88 / 20 30 30 30 10 20 10 10 Camden 65 85 64 86 63 88 65 88 / 10 20 30 30 20 20 10 10 Crestview 64 88 64 88 62 89 65 88 / 0 0 10 20 10 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Thu -- 02:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 PM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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