Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday November 18, 2017 4:19 AM CST (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 6:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 305 Am Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft should exercise caution this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 13 to 18 knots. A moderate chop becoming choppy.
Tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots. Choppy becoming choppy to rough. Chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Choppy becoming a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Monday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 305 Am Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through Saturday in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late tonight through Sunday morning leading to a strong offshore flow occurring throughout most of the day on Sunday. Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday night through early Monday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 180549 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1149 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...VFR condition through about 18.09z for bfm, and
through about 18.10z for pns. MVFR visibilities (5sm) already
being reported at mob. MVFR ceilings (2500 to 3000 feet) will
then occur after these times at all TAF sites through early
Saturday morning as low clouds develop. Both pns and bfm should
see ceilings rise to back toVFR levels (3500 feet) though early
Saturday evening, but mob should stay at MVFR levels (3000 feet).

MVFR ceilings (2500 to 3000 feet) will then occur at all taf
sites through the remainder of the forecast, along with showers in
the vicinity. Winds will be mostly south to southeast at 5 to 8
knots through early Saturday morning, increasing from the south to
southwest 12 to 16 knots through 19.06z. 22

Prev discussion issued 349 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017
near term now through Saturday ... A broad upper ridge of high
pressure over texas and northern mexico, stretching east over the
western gulf, will shift south through Sat afternoon in response to
a vigorous short wave trough and surface cold front moving eastward
from the central rockies to the mid to lower mississippi river
valleys through Sat afternoon. This system remains progressive and
positively tilted through Sat afternoon with limited forcing in the
mid levels further south along the northern gulf coast through sat
afternoon. Near the surface a closed low tracks east across the
central plains to south of the great lakes with the attendant cold
front reaching the ms la border by late Sat afternoon. With this
pattern expect increasing clouds tonight through Sat afternoon with
a slight chance of rainshowers for most areas by Sat afternoon. A
light southeast wind will become better developed late this
afternoon and tonight becoming mostly south and building during the
day on sat. With the better onshore flow better low level moisture
is expected to advect inland overnight through Sat afternoon
possibly leading to some patchy for most inland areas mostly before
sunrise Sat morning. With better mixing expected tonight the threat
for dense fog is lower compared to last night.

Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last
night ranging from the low to mid 50s to the east and north and the
upper 50s to lower 60s to the west and along the immediate coast.

Highs Sat will range from the mid to upper 70s for most areas.

32 ee
short term Saturday night through Monday night ... A cold front
moves through the area Saturday night, with showers along and
ahead of the front ending from northwest to southeast by early
Sunday morning. Low temps Saturday night range from low 40's
inland to mid 50's along the immediate coast. In the wake of this
front, northerly winds usher in a cooler and drier airmass, with
afternoon highs Sunday only reaching the upper 50's to low 60's.

Expect colder lows Sunday night as clear skies and light winds
will allow plenty of radiational cooling, with temps dropping into
the low to mid 30's across much of the area. Some inland locations
could see temps dip just below freezing around sunrise early
Monday morning. Highs on Monday once again range from upper 50's
to low 60's, before lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's Monday
night as light surface winds shift to more easterly and a weak
upper shortwave bring an increase in cloud cover. 49
long term Tuesday through Friday ... Rain chances increase once
again Tuesday as a vigorous upper shortwave digs into the lower
mississippi river valley and northwestern gulf of mexico. At this
point, the upper level jet splits, with the southern stream trough
developing a surface low over the central gulf while the northern
stream remains over the midwest and great lakes. Models are
in fair agreement with another shortwave embedded within the
northern stream pushing a front through our local area Tuesday
night. This front eventually stalls well offshore and acts as a
sort of barrier, keeping the low out over the central gulf.

Heading through midweek, yet another impulse in the northern
stream digs across the eastern conus, this time falling into phase
with the southern stream trough. The resulting deeper longwave
pattern then pushes the central gulf low east towards the florida
peninsula and away from the local area.

Ultimately, the weather along our portion of the gulf coast will
depend on the track of the upper trough (and subsequent surface
low) over the gulf. Current model trends have it far enough south
for the bulk of precipitation to remain offshore. As the low
tracks east-northeast across the gulf, cloud cover and rain
chances would increase along and east of i-65 Thursday and
Friday, with areas west seeing fewer clouds and drier weather.

In terms of temperature, expect temps around seasonal on Tuesday,
with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 Tuesday afternoon and
lows in the mid 40's to low 50's Tuesday night. In the wake of
Tuesday night's front, temps drop a few degrees below-seasonal
Wednesday through Friday. Highs range from low to mid 60's, and
lows range from low to mid 40's. 49
marine... High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern
seaboard and western atlantic through Sat in response to a strong
cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move
across the marine area late Sat night through Sun morning leading to
a strong offshore flow, occurring throughout most of the day on
Sunday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open
gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early
Sunday. A moderate south to southwest flow is also expected ahead of
the front by mid to late Sat afternoon. Northerly winds and seas
will gradually subside Sun night through early Mon as a broad
surface ridge of high pressure builds from the lower mississippi
river valley to the southeast states through Mon afternoon. A light
onshore flow is expected by late Mon shifting mostly north to
northeast Tue through Thu in response to another cold front moving
south over the northern and central gulf. An area of low pressure is
expected to form along the front over the gulf moving mostly east of
the marine area Thu through sat. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
gmz650-670-675.

Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm cst Sunday for gmz650-670-
675.

Small craft advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 pm cst
Sunday for gmz630>635-655.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 20 mi49 min 71°F 1014.6 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 33 mi79 min SSE 1.9 70°F 1014.9 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 33 mi94 min 60°F 1015 hPa59°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 43 mi79 min S 6 68°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.0)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 43 mi49 min ESE 5.1 67°F 1014.6 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi79 min S 7 G 8 71°F 1014.3 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi26 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F61°F84%1015.1 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi23 minS 9 miA Few Clouds69°F62°F78%1014.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi23 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F53°F78%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmNE6NE54E5SE434S7S7S8S5S4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE4SE5SE5SE5S6
1 day agoCalmN4N4N4--N7N7N843N4NW5CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N4N4NE5NE5
2 days agoE5E7E7E7E8E94N4CalmN6N5CalmN3CalmCalmNE4N4NE3NE3E4NE3NE5NE3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:15 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:21 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:57 PM CST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.210.80.60.40.20-0-0.1-000.10.20.40.50.60.80.91.11.21.41.51.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:14 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:21 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:38 PM CST     1.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.31.10.80.60.30.20-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.60.70.91.11.21.41.51.61.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.