Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:48PM Thursday September 20, 2018 3:43 AM CDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 2:28AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1007 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of tonight..Winds light. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Winds light becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1007 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will slowly build from the northeast through early next week. A weak upper level disturbance will move west across the central and lower gulf over the weekend and into early next week. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected with this pattern Friday through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 200505
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1205 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
20 06z issuance... Latest radar indicates convection has died off
across the region. Look for a few isolated showers over the near
shore coastal waters late tonight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Thursday, initially along the sea breeze
near the coast during the early part of the afternoon, then more
scattered coverage over inland areas late afternoon and early
evening. Expect little to no ceilings at any level overnight, but
some areas of MVFR near the aforementioned showers and storms. Toward
daybreak on Thursday morning, some patchy areas of MVFR fog
reducing vsby to around 4 miles in some isolated locations. Light
and variable winds overnight, becoming east early Thursday morning
and then shifting to more southeasterly or southerly during the
afternoon. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 642 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

20 00z issuance... Latest radar indicates few isolated showers
along the sea breeze near the coast slowly dissipating. Expect
that this convection will be gone shortly after sunset. Few MVFR
clouds as showers dissipate, but expect little to no ceilings at
any level overnight. Toward daybreak on Thursday morning, some
patchy areas of MVFR fog reducing vsby to around 4 miles in some
isolated locations. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming
east early Thursday morning and then shifting to more southeasterly
or southerly during the afternoon. 12 ds
prev discussion... Issued 404 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
near term now through Thursday ... Mid level ridge axis over the
southern plains on Tuesday has built eastward into the mid south
per 19.12z upper air analysis. This has caused a high level trof
axis to advance to off the southeast us coast and over the
northern gulf. With the upper trof axis east and south of the
local area today, there has been a reduction in daytime shower and
storm coverage to isolated coverage at best. In the presence of
afternoon instability where surface based capes range from
2500-3000 j kg over the southern zones and within a western nose
of highest pwat air ~1.8", there is spotty coastal convection
forming along a slow northward moving weak coastal surface
boundary sea-breeze. The mid level ridge axis is forecast to make
steady eastward progress over the tn river valley and western
carolinas tonight. Considering the ridge aloft being the dominant
player tonight and local environment gradually stabilizing,
shower storm activity is anticipated to dissipate shortly after-
sunset; this is also shown by latest high resolution convection
allowing models (cams). Even so, chances of evening showers storms
are non-zero, but generally 10% or less to account for very
isolated activity that may carry over into the evening. Little
change in night-time lows.

Local area will be on the southwest periphery of mid level ridge
centered over the carolinas on Thursday. This favors the west to
northwest motion of mid level impulses and perhaps a weak mid
level trof axis over the gulf around the ridge axis. When combined
with daytime heating instability and pwat ~1.8 inches, expect to
see isolated to perhaps scattered showers storms forming near weak
northward moving sea-breeze and over the interior. Surface high
pressure to the northeast, favors light morning northeast
component to the wind, which becomes southeast during the day. 10
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... An upper
level ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the
carolinas Thursday night before gradually shifting eastward into
the western atlantic ocean during the day Friday. A surface ridge
of high pressure will otherwise remain positioned from the western
atlantic eastern seaboard and southwestward across the southeastern
states through Friday, maintaining a light east to southeast flow
across our forecast area. A relatively moist airmass, with
precipitable water values around 1.8", along with weak ascent
associated with a minor impulse on the southwestern periphery of
the upper level ridge will support a least lingering isolated
convection over the northeastern half of our forecast area
Thursday evening, but otherwise expect dry conditions by late
Thursday evening into the overnight hours Thursday night. Little
change in the pattern is expected Friday, with a continued moist
airmass across our region underneath light southeasterly to
southerly deep layer flow. Sufficient moisture and instability,
along with with convergence along the seabreeze should aid in the
development of isolated to locally scattered showers and storms
again Friday afternoon, and will keep pops in the 20-30% range
over most of the region. This convection may linger into the early
evening before gradually dissipating.

The upper level ridge axis will remain centered over the western
atlantic Saturday into Saturday night, as a trough slowly
progresses from the central and southern plains toward the
mississippi valley region. Short range models are also in fairly
good agreement with bringing a mid level low westward across the
eastern and central gulf of mexico Saturday and Saturday night,
with the inverted trough axis extending northward to near the
coast. Our forecast area generally remains between all of these
features on Saturday, but deep layer moisture remains sufficient
to result in another typical round of isolated to scattered
convection, and will maintain pops from around 20% over our
northeastern zones (located within a slightly lower precipitable
water value airmass) to 30-40% coverage over the remainder of the
region.

We otherwise expect slightly above normal temperatures to
continue through the remainder of the week, with highs ranging
around 90 to the lower 90s over the interior, and upper 80s near
the coast. 21
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... The flow pattern aloft
amplifies late this weekend into early next week as a broad upper
level trough develops across much of the central and northern
u.S., while the upper level ridge of high pressure remains
anchored across the western atlantic. The upper level low over the
gulf of mexico slowly pushes westward into Tuesday. A moist
southwesterly flow aloft should develop over our area, especially
by the early to middle part of next week in advance of the broad
upper trough axis over the central CONUS and also on the western
periphery of the western atlantic ridge. Increased deep layer
moisture should result in a more unsettled pattern with increased
coverage of showers and storms during the early to middle part of
next week. Will keep pops capped in the 40-50% range each day
Monday-Wednesday for now. High temperatures may drop into the mid
to upper 80s early to mid next week. Some potential hope for an
approaching cold front by sometime late next week, but this
feature is currently beyond the scope of our extended forecast
period. 21
marine... Surface high pressure becomes reinforced from the
northeast later in the week. The high weakens a bit over the weekend
then rebuilds again by Monday. With the high centered to the
northeast of the local area, a prevailing east to southeast flow is
expected much of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms. 10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 0 mi44 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 82°F 87°F1014.9 hPa (-0.4)
PPTA1 20 mi44 min 85°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 29 mi34 min S 5.8 G 7.8 85°F 1014.8 hPa77°F
WBYA1 33 mi44 min 86°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 33 mi59 min 1015 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 43 mi44 min Calm 80°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 43 mi74 min SE 5.1 85°F 1014.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 45 mi44 min S 6 G 7 84°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.6)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi44 min SSE 6 G 7 84°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.5)75°F
PTOA1 47 mi44 min 81°F 76°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi44 min WNW 1 G 1.9 81°F 88°F1014.8 hPa (-0.6)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 49 mi44 min 82°F 86°F1014.8 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair80°F75°F85%1014.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi48 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist77°F75°F96%1014.7 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds76°F75°F100%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNW3N3NW3NW4N5NE43E64S9S8SE6S6SW5SW3CalmSW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4E3SE8W8--E5SE6SE5SW6N3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm--CalmS5S6SW11S6W7NE9SW5SE5S7S6S5CalmS4S3SW4SW3SW3SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.