Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:36 AM CST (08:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 930 Pm Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 930 Pm Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..Light southeasterly winds this evening will begin to gradually increase to moderate late tonight and Thursday as high pressure shifts east and low pressure develops and moves toward the marine area from the west. Winds become west to northwesterly behind the front late this week into this weekend. Small craft advisory expected over much of the marine area from late Thursday through early Saturday due to strong winds and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 130551 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1151 pm cst Wed dec 12 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...VFR conditions are expected through much of the
night, but ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR levels Thursday
morning, mainly for the mob and bfm TAF sites, and then at the pns
sites mid afternoon. Rain chances will be on the increase after
midnight, mainly between mobile alabama and pensacola florida, but
a few light rain showers could occur at pns. Rain chances will be
on the increase Thursday morning into early afternoon, mainly
across southwest alabama and southeast mississippi, and then
expand northeast across the entire north central gulf coast
region, including pns, from mid afternoon Thursday through the
reminder of the forecast, with reductions to visibility in the ifr
category. Surface winds will generally be light easterly to
southeasterly overnight, then strengthening from the southeast at
13 to 18 knots on Thursday, with a few higher gusts possible in
the afternoon. 22

Prev discussion issued 357 pm cst Wed dec 12 2018
near term now through Thursday night ... Mid level flow becomes
more southwesterly tonight ahead of the next trough that will be
deepening over the rocky mountains. Surface high pressure will
meanwhile shift eastward across the southeastern states and adjacent
western atlantic through tonight, allowing for a light southeasterly
return flow to develop across our region. This will allow for
slightly increased low level moisture, and with the southwesterly
mid level flow, weak isentropic ascent which may be just enough to
produce a slight chance of rain in the forecast mainly over the
southwestern portion of our forecast area. Possibly some patchy fog
late tonight, but increase mid level cloud cover may limit this
somewhat. The increasing low level moisture should bring warmer
overnight lows tonight with readings in the mid 40s to around 50
over the interior, and in the mid 50s near the immediate coast.

An upper trough moves across the southern plains and forms a deep
upper low over texas on Thursday. An associated surface low pressure
area occludes while moving eastward. Strong deep layer lift and some
mid level dynamics will spread across the our area from the west
starting Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This will bring
widespread showers and some thunderstorms to the area Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Only weak destabilization is expected
ahead of this system due to the lack of significant modification of
the airmass, however. As a result, only weak CAPE values are
expected along the coast and this is where SPC has outlined a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. The bulk of the most unstable
air is expected to remain offshore, although a few strong to
marginally severe storms near the coast could be a possibility late
Thursday and Thursday evening. The main threat from this system will
be locally heavy rain. Total of 1 to 2 inches, locally higher
expected across much of the area Thursday, and could result in some
localized flash flooding, especially in those areas that previously
saw the heavier rainfall over the past week or so. For that reason
we have highlighted a limited risk of flooding over the southern
portion of our forecast area, generally from around highway 84
southward. The heavier rainfall and any lingering severe threat will
be moving off to the east of our forecast area by daybreak Friday.

Highs Thursday in the 60s across the entire area, lows Thursday
night ranging from the lower 50s northwestern zones to the upper 50s
and a few lower 60s southeastern zones and along the immediate
coast. 12 ds
short term Friday through Saturday night ... For the short term, a
deep upper low moves from the southern plains to near the va nc
atlantic coast. This system has pushed an occluded surface front to
eastern portions of the forecast area by Friday morning. Drier air
has and will continue to overspread most of the area into Friday
night behind the front, pushing any residual showers over most of
the area eastward. The exception is light rain showers lasting
through Friday night over northern portions of the forecast area
as system passes.

Looking at temps for the short term, mostly cloudy skies Friday will
temper some daytime heating to limit highs to a bit above
seasonal normals for the day. Westerly flow overspreading the area
Friday night into Saturday will bring a bit cooler airmass over
the area, with more seasonal temps for the area Friday night
through Saturday night.

16
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Northerly post-system winds
return late Saturday night, continuing to keep temps around
seasonal normals through Wednesday. Highs generally in the low
60s expected. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s north to
mid 40s along the coast.

16
marine... Light southeasterly winds late today and this evening
will begin to gradually increase to moderate late tonight and
Thursday as high pressure shifts east and low pressure develops and
moves toward the marine area from the west. Winds become west to
northwesterly behind the front late this week into this weekend.

Small craft advisory expected over much of the marine area from late
Thursday through early Saturday due to strong winds and rough seas.

12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk from 6 am cst Thursday through late Friday
night for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk from 6 am cst Thursday through late Friday
night for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 9 am Thursday to 9 am cst Saturday for
gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 0 mi42 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 56°F 55°F1020.1 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 29 mi36 min 12 G 14 1019 hPa (-1.5)
WBYA1 33 mi42 min 57°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 33 mi111 min 55°F 1019 hPa53°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 33 mi96 min ESE 4.1 59°F 1019 hPa (-0.3)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 45 mi42 min E 11 G 12 59°F 1018.4 hPa
PTOA1 47 mi42 min 56°F 56°F
MBPA1 47 mi42 min 56°F 54°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi36 min E 9.9 G 12 59°F 1018.3 hPa (-0.8)57°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi42 min Calm G 6 55°F 56°F1019.1 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 49 mi42 min 56°F 53°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi43 minNE 4 miLight Rain56°F53°F90%1020.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi1.8 hrsWNW 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist59°F59°F100%1020 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi40 minSE 410.00 miOvercast53°F50°F89%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7E64E5E8E9E6SE10SE7E4E5E7E7E8E6E6--E6NE4
1 day agoN10
G18
N12N7N86NW8NW6NW7NE5N5NW55N54SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE5N4
2 days agoNW12NW11NW11NW11NW11NW13NW11NW10NW13
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G21
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Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM CST     1.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:27 PM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.110.90.80.60.50.30.10-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:13 AM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:18 PM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.21.11.110.80.60.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.50.60.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.