Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday April 25, 2019 7:51 PM CDT (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:40AMMoonset 11:11AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 720 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2019
.tornado watch 103 in effect until 8 pm cdt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am cdt Friday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 18 to 23 knots becoming west 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Periods of showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Saturday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Sunday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 720 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong onshore flow will continue this evening, gradually subsiding from the west to northwest after midnight as a cold front moves east across the coastal waters. A light to moderate offshore flow is then expected to continue Friday through Saturday, before becoming more east and southeasterly Sunday through the early part of next week as surface high pressure builds east across the marine area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 260043 cca
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service mobile al
743 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Shield of showers and embedded storms have moved
steadily eastward early this evening and is now over the far eastern
zones. Strongest convection is confined to the 20 to 60 nautical mile
zones over the marine area and will remain so thru mid, to perhaps
late evening. Over the land zones, the severe weather threat has
ended. Convective watches have been cancelled and headlines removed
from public zones. Another cluster of showers and isolated storms
were developing over eastern ms and has been moving east. West of the
higher pops this evening in the eastern zones, will maintain a small
pop to account for new activity to the northeast. 10

Prev discussion issued 649 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

26 00z issuance... Rain shield is moving east across the area, now
primarily east of a camden to gulf shores line. The stronger
storms are now located out over the gulf to the south. Rains will
be ending across nearly the entire area by around 20 03z. Low
clouds (MVFR) will persist through most of the night, with some
patchy light fog possible (but generally MVFR or greater). Light
east to southeast winds overnight, becoming more southwesterly
early Friday morning and then light to moderate northwesterly
late Friday morning. 12 ds
prev discussion... Issued 532 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019
discussion... Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine... Currently have a well defined book-end vortex currently
moving east across the gulf just offshore of the alabama coast
south of the mouth of mobile bay. Kmob velocity data is indicating
winds up to as high as 74 knots just below 3000 feet. Special
marine warnings are in effect for much of our marine area, where
localized wind gusts above 50 knots and very rough seas are
expected. 12 ds
prev discussion... Issued 358 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019
near term now through Friday ... As of 315 pm this afternoon, a
convective outflow boundary extends from butler county southwest
generally along i-65 down to mobile county. A weakly defined warm
front appears to extend inland across the western fl panhandle and
intersects the outflow boundary somewhere in the vicinity of conecuh
county (where remnants of earlier strong convection has flared up
once again). At this time most of that inland convection is expected
to continue over our eastern interior zones into early evening,
generally remaining strong but sub-severe (although an isolated
severe storm could be possible). Further south toward the coast in
the areas bounded by by old outflow boundary to the west and the
warm front to the east (generally mobile, baldwin, escambia fl,
santa rosa and okaloosa counties) we still have a severe threat this
evening, and a tornado watch continues until 8 pm cdt. Cooling cloud
tops associated with intensifying convection over the offshore ms
coastal waters that hires models indicate will move east-northeast
across our coastal counties early this evening and generally moving
east of our area by late evening. This stronger convection will be
coincident with the strong 30 to 40 knot low level jet and the
better instabilities with mlcapes continuing to approach 1500 j kg
in this area. Some severe storms with damaging wind gusts and or a
brief tornado possible. Could see some lingering showers over the
eastern half of our forecast area overnight into the predawn hours
Friday, but all precipitation is expected to have moved east of our
area after daybreak on Friday with no rain expected for the
remainder of the day. Lows tonight in the upper 50s over
northwestern counties to lower 60s elsewhere. Highs on Friday will
be ranging from the mid upper 70s to the lower 80s. 12 ds
short term Friday night through Sunday night ... Weak upper
ridging builds into the eastern CONUS in the wake of today's
shortwave trough, bringing quieter weather and clearer skies to
the local area this weekend. A weak impulse passes by to our
north on Sunday and brings another front south into central and
northern al ms, where it should stall well north of the local
area. No precip is expected in our area with this front due to a
lack of moisture and forcing, though areas well inland may see
some additional cloudiness on Sunday. Plenty of daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies will support high temps in the upper
70s and low 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Dry air and efficient
radiative cooling help overnight lows dip into the upper 40s
inland and low 50s along the coast Friday night, then low to mid
50s everywhere Saturday and Sunday nights. 49
long term Monday through Thursday ... Upper ridging amplifies
over the eastern CONUS as we head into early next week, leading to
stronger subsidence and a continuation of warm and sunny weather
for the local area. No rain chances in the forecast until late
next week. High temps reach the low to mid 80s along the coast and
mid to upper 80s inland each afternoon through the long term. High
surface pressure over the eastern gulf maintains a light southerly
wind through the period, which helps gradually bring gulf moisture
back into the area. As a result, overnight lows see a slow warming
trend, ranging from upper 50s Monday night to mid 60s by the end
of the week. 49
marine... A moderate to strong onshore flow will continue across the
marine area tonight, gradually subsiding after midnight. A small
craft advisory continues for the gulf waters, ms sound and southern
mobile bay until 1 am, with scec elsewhere. Some strong to severe
storms will be possible near shore early this evening, but
convection is expected to move on off to the east of our marine area
late this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest and decrease
somewhat behind the line of storms as a cold front moves east across
the coastal waters. A light to moderate offshore flow is then
expected to continue Friday through Saturday, before becoming more
east and southeasterly Sunday trough the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds east across the marine area. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Friday morning for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday morning for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Friday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi33 min SW 1.9 G 8 65°F 71°F1012.6 hPa
PCBF1 47 mi39 min ESE 8 G 8.9 71°F 72°F1012.1 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi71 min 4 ft
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi33 min ESE 7 G 13 72°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi1.9 hrsSSE 510.00 miLight Drizzle71°F67°F89%1011.3 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi1.9 hrsSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1011.8 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi58 minSE 55.00 miRain Fog/Mist71°F68°F90%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3E5SE6E2CalmCalmE3CalmN2CalmCalmSE5SE10SE13S14
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S14--S10S12SE11SE5SE8
1 day agoCalm--CalmCalmSE2NE4CalmN4N3CalmN4N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S5E5SE6SE4SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS9S6SE9S8S8SW8SW5SW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:18 PM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.51.41.31.110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:10 AM CDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:43 PM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.30.40.60.80.91.11.21.31.31.31.21.10.90.70.50.30.20.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.