Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:44PM Monday May 29, 2017 10:09 AM CDT (15:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 750 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2017
Today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 750 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis..Generally southwest winds can be expected over the marine area, until a weakening cold front moves offshore Tuesday night through Wednesday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and Thunderstorms through mid-week. Marine conditions should improve slightly for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 291249 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
749 am cdt Mon may 29 2017

Discussion See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Update
Initial convective complex continues moving east-northeastward
across parts of south-central alabama and the florida panhandle.

Mesoanalysis data indicates decreasing amounts of parcel buoyancy
available, with 1000-1500 j kg now noted near the coastal counties
in our forecast area. Precipitation probabilities have been
increased downstream to account for this initial convective
complex.

Area radars show another convective complex moving toward our area
from southeast louisiana. Infrared satellite imagery indicates
warming cloud tops, which suggests a decreasing convective trend.

Radar trends show this as well. This trend is expected to
generally continue through mid-morning, although I made no
adjustments to precipitation probabilities past 10 am at this
time.

Updated text products will be issued shortly. Butts

Marine
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue moving across the
marine area this morning. The stronger thunderstorms will be
capable of producing wind gusts around 30 knots along with locally
choppy seas and torrential rainfall.

Observational platforms over the northern gulf indicate
significant wave heights over the gulf of mexico waters are
running a skosh higher than what's indicated in the current
forecast products. Current wind speed forecast appears to be in
decent agreement with data from available observational platforms.

Updated text product will be issued shortly. Butts

Prev discussion issued 651 am cdt Mon may 29 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... MVFR toVFR conditions can be expected through
much of the day scattered showers and storms near the terminals by
the afternoon. Ifr to MVFR conditions can be expected in and
around storms. 13
prev discussion... Issued 542 am cdt Mon may 29 2017
near term now through Monday night ...

a large upper-level storm system spinning over southern ontario this
morning continues to result in broad troughiness over much of the
eastern u.S. The associated cold front remains analyzed from middle
tennessee into the ARKLATEX early this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have already been seen this morning close
to home, initializing along an outflow boundary (or boundaries) from
previous convection. Mesoscale analysis indicates a very unstable
airmass in place across the northern gulf coast, with MLCAPE values
between 1500 and 2000 j kg common. Mid-level lapse rates and
effective bulk shear values are marginal, however, with values 6.5
degrees c km and 25 knots, respectively. Some stabilization is
expected across the region as this complex of storms traverses the
region. The big question is to what degree can we recover for the
afternoon.

I think convection today will likely be driven by largely mesoscale
processes. Sure, synoptic scale forcing is enhanced given the
proximity of the surface front. The upper jet, though, is forecast
to remain to our north with a minimum of cross isobaric flow between
the upper trough and the surface front. That said, I think the front
(and the best source of large scale forcing shear) will likely
remain to our north west tonight.

What we will have is a "soupy" airmass, with precipitable water
values between 1.75 and 2 inches over the region. Forecast soundings
indicate some airmass recovery is possible this afternoon, with
maximum MLCAPE values between 1500 and 2000 j kg possible. Short
version - ample moisture and instability will be present, as will be
plenty of mesoscale boundaries and disturbances in the upper
atmosphere moving through the region.

The ongoing convection should take full advantage of the
thermodynamic environment through mid-morning, with additional
development possible across southeast mississippi and adjacent
areas of interior southwest alabama. Expect the areal coverage of
this convection to diminish by late morning as instability is
used. There may be a break in the convection late morning through
early to mid- afternoon, before more showers and thunderstorms
develop across southeast mississippi with the approach of the next
upper atmosphere disturbance. Timing of precipitation
probabilities have been based on this train of thought.

There are lots of flies hanging out in the ointment today, so
updates will likely have to be made as the event evolves. Locally
heavy downpours will be possible in the stronger thunderstorms.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

minimal cross isobaric flow should be provided by the broad upper-
level trough through Tuesday. This should result in the surface
front remaining nearly stationary, generally waffling somewhere
either side of the ih-20 corridor.

The atmosphere across our region will remain quite moist.

Precipitable water values should remain between 2 and 3 standard
deviations above climatological means, with amounts above 1.75
inches expected. Instability should not be as great as today, but
mlcape values around 1000 j kg may be seen. Weaker perturbations
moving across our area will interact with this airmass to result in
additional periods of showers and thunderstorms over the region
through Tuesday. Expect the greatest convective coverage to remain
generally along and north west of ih-65, where better moisture
transport will be seen.

Additional upper-level energy is expected to rotate southward across
the upper midwest Tuesday afternoon and evening, helping to amplify
the upper-level trough. This should provide enough momentum to help
push the surface front southward into our area by Wednesday. Despite
the loss of daytime heating, increased synoptic scale forcing should
help maintain a scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms over
much of the region Tuesday night.

The front should gradually weaken as it sags toward the coast
sometime Wednesday night. I've kept convective probabilities above
seasonal values through mid-week due to the presence of the
weakening front. We'll likely see a stronger diurnal signal by
Wednesday as well, although i've refrained from indicating this in
the forecast at this time.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

broad upper trough axis is forecast to shift east across quebec
Thursday. In its wake, weak ridging both at the surface and aloft
will attempt to rebuild across the region as the old surface front
gradually dissipates. With the loss of significant synoptic scale
forcing, expect scattered afternoon convection to exhibit a strong
diurnal signal with the greatest coverage in the afternoon and early
evening.

Low-level flow veers to a more southerly direction Friday night-
Saturday, just in time for another shortwave trough to move through
the plains. This feature will likely amplify over the eastern u.S.

By the end of the weekend and aid in bringing another cold front
toward the mid-south. Boundary layer moisture increases to nearly 3
standard deviations above climatological values, and when combined
with ample instability, will likely result in an increase in
convective coverage for the upcoming weekend.

Marine...

light to moderate onshore flow is expected over the marine area
through tonight, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
weakening cold front is forecast to enter the marine area by Tuesday
night and become stationary through mid-week. As the boundary
becomes more diffuse, a decreased shower thunderstorm coverage will
likely be seen for the end of the week before showers and
thunderstorms increasing in coverage again next weekend. Winds and
seas will be higher in vicinity of any convection.

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi51 min 76°F 80°F1018.1 hPa
PPTA1 45 mi69 min SE 4.1 77°F 1018.3 hPa (+2.0)
PCBF1 47 mi51 min W 8.9 G 11 77°F 78°F1018.7 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi79 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 79°F3 ft1017.4 hPa (+1.7)76°F
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi51 min SSW 8 G 8.9 79°F 81°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi71 minSSE 910.00 miLight Rain Thunderstorm in Vicinity74°F73°F98%1017.4 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi74 minS 610.00 miLight Rain Thunderstorm in Vicinity74°F71°F94%1018.5 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi76 minS 79.00 miLight Rain77°F77°F100%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW5SW10SW13
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S11S8SW6CalmNW6CalmCalmCalmSE4S6CalmSE9
1 day agoCalmS8S8S10S11S12S9S10S10SW7SW7SW6SW5SW3CalmS8S6S6SW7S6SW3CalmSW5W7
2 days ago--S9SE9S11
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S7SW7S5----S3S6S6S4S6S7SW4SW3N4CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:22 AM CDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:31 PM CDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.200.20.50.811.31.51.71.81.81.71.61.41.20.90.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:16 PM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.20.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.