Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday December 16, 2017 12:52 PM CST (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 4:59PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 932 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 932 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow becomes easterly today then southerly on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Sunday through Monday with decreasing coverage Tuesday into Wednesday. Areas of fog, possibly dense at times, can be expected late Saturday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 161812
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1212 pm cst Sat dec 16 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
16 18z issuance... GeneralVFR CIGS visbys expected today into this
evening under general easterly flow. As the low level flow becomes
a more southeast to southerly tonight, ceilings are expected to
drop, especially over southeast mississippi and southwest alabama
(and possibly coastal sections of the western florida panhandle).

Some fog will likely begin to develop over the coastal waters and
possibly affect immediate coastal areas after the winds become
more southerly, primarily after sunrise Sunday morning. Will
likely have to add fog to coastal TAF sites for Sunday as
guidance becomes more in agreement with this. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 525 am cst Sat dec 16 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... GeneralVFR CIGS visbys expected today into this
evening under general easterly flow. As the low level flow becomes
a more southeast to southerly tonight, CIGS are expected to drop,
especially over southeast mississippi and southwest alabama. Winds
are expected to remain strong enough to keep CIGS at MVFR levels,
though.

16
prev discussion... Issued 453 am cst Sat dec 16 2017
near term now through Saturday night ... Shortwave energy that
has stalled over the southern plains the end of the week will
begin to organize, then move northeast. This energy organizes a
weak surface low over the western gulf, then moves it onshore over
louisiana. Surface high pressure over the southeast shifts east,
to over the carolina coast, and with that, shift low level flow
from northeast east to southeast south by Sunday morning. This
will allow the stalled front over the northern gulf to begin to
move north as a warm front. For the first 24hrs of the forecast,
the more organized flow remains west of the forecast area, and any
initial moisture return. Guidance is advertising mainly shra to
the west, and see no reason to argue at this point. Have started
precip returning to western portions of the area the last few
hours of tonight's period as a result. With instability
essentially non-existent, have left out any wording of rumbles
with the initial shra. Temps today will be warmer than yesterday,
but are still expected to be below seasonal with mostly cloud to
cloudy skies limiting today's insolation, and any warming onshore
flow not quite in effect. With the onshore flow returning tonight,
overnight lows above seasonal average returns, with a steady
warming through the night from the low temps for the night
expected to occur in the evening hours. 16
short term Sunday through Monday night ... A 1026mb surface
high pressure area moving east across the western atlantic will
set up a southerly return flow on Sunday. An upper level shortwave
over the central plains will move quickly toward the northeast
conus and dissipate along the northern periphery of the upper
high pressure area centered over the bahamas by midnight Sunday.

The upper high will then drift slowly southwestward through the
reminder of the short term, while an upper cutoff low over the
southwest CONUS northwest mexico border drifts slowly eastward.

Deep layer moisture will continue to increase across the region,
with precipitable water values climbing to between 1.5 to 1.9
inches by Sunday evening.

Numerous to definite rain showers along with embedded
thunderstorms will spread from west to east to the i-65 corridor
on Sunday, with scattered coverage expected to the east of i-65 as
upper level impulses associated with on the ejecting upper wave
traverse the region. Scattered to numerous rain showers along with
embedded thunderstorms will follow through Monday afternoon as
additional upper level impulses move over the region. Lower rain
chances will occur Monday night.

Widespread rainfall amounts through the short term will range
from 1 to 2 inches west of the alabama river, with locally high
amounts near 3 inches possible across inland southeast
mississippi. Widespread rainfall amounts east of the alabama
river will range from 0.50 to 1 inch, with locally high amounts
near 2 inches possible. Areas of dense advection sea fog are
expected to develop across our southern zones Sunday night through
Monday night as surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s move
northward over the cool gulf and bay waters. 22
long term Tuesday through Friday ... The pattern remains
complicated through the long term as the cutoff upper low
pressure area moves slowly eastward and also evolves into an open
wave before reaching the southeast conus. The ECMWF and GFS models
are more in line passing the shortwave just north of the forecast
area on Wednesday. However, timing and spacial differences of
upper level impulses east of the wave between the two models
remain, so confidence remains low on exactly when the higher
chances of precipitation will occur.

Additional widespread rainfall amounts Tuesday through Friday are
expected to range from 0.50 to 1 inch, with locally high amounts
near 2 inches possible. 22

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi53 min 52°F 52°F1025.1 hPa (-1.8)
PPTA1 45 mi53 min 51°F 1024.4 hPa (-2.7)
PCBF1 47 mi53 min NE 6 G 8.9 56°F 62°F1024.7 hPa (-1.6)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi53 min E 5.1 G 6 59°F 59°F1024.7 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi57 minESE 510.00 miFair57°F27°F31%1024.6 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi58 minESE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F32°F40%1025.7 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi60 minENE 710.00 miFair57°F28°F33%1024.8 hPa

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Last 24hrN14N15
G20
N11N9N9N9N11N9N13NE11N6N5N3N3N4NE7NE7NE5NE7NE6NE5E7E4SE5
1 day agoW5W5W3SW4SW4W5W6W5NW5W3NW4CalmN3NE4CalmN7N5NE4N6N8N7N9N10N12
2 days agoS8S9SW8SW7SW4W3CalmCalmW5W5NW4NW5W7W7NW3CalmCalmNW3W4W3W4W6W6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:01 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:40 AM CST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:13 PM CST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.110.80.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.60.811.11.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM CST     0.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.30.20.10.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0-000.10.10.20.20.30.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.