Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:40PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 2:30 PM CDT (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1006 Am Cdt Tue May 22 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1006 Am Cdt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis..A light onshore flow will persist over the marine area through midweek as a weak surface ridge of high pressure remains across the eastern gulf. Easterly winds and seas will build later in the week and over weekend as a developing low pressure system moves northward over the central gulf. Scattered to numerous Thunderstorms will develop over the marine area both day and night through midweek, followed by better coverage late in the week and over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 221811
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
111 pm cdt Tue may 22 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance...

majority MVFR conditions are expected for the near term period due
to scatter thunderstorms along the gulf coast. Winds will continue
to be light and variable, however gusty winds will be possible
beneath active storms. These storms should dissipate after
sundown. Overnight patchy fog is possible prior to sunrise. After
sunrise there is the potential for early morning rain showers
that may persist throughout the day. Dj 17

Prev discussion issued 704 am cdt Tue may 22 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance...VFR to MVFR conditions through about 22.18z then
mostly MVFR CIGS and visibilties through about 23.03z then mostly
vfr conditions through 23.18z. Lower CIGS and visibilities mainly
in and around scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through the forecast period. Winds will be variable at 5 knots or
less early today becoming mostly south at 4 to 8 knots this
afternoon through early this evening then becoming light and
variable overnight and most of Wed morning. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 446 am cdt Tue may 22 2018
near term now through Tuesday night ... A weak upper low near the
texas coast combined with a weak ridge of high pressure located
over much of the eastern gulf and fl peninsula will continue to
allow better moisture to advect inland across the north central
gulf states through tonight. Latest model soundings show slightly
higher pwats across most areas of the forecast area today and
tonight averaging around 1.7 inches through tonight. Marginal
instability and lapse rates are also noted, similar to the last
few days, leading to another round of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across the forecast area today continuing through
most of tonight. The best lift looks to be near the immediate
coast and offshore this morning shifting inland later this morning
mostly over extreme eastern sections of the forecast area then
across the most central and northern sections of the forecast area
this afternoon and this evening. Similiar to yesterday expect
gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
periods of very heavy rain with most of the stronger thunderstorms
this afternoon and this evening. Due to recent rains and a
saturated ground surface some minor flooding will be possible,
especially in urban areas and areas prone to poor drainage, later
in the day continuing into the evening hours.

With plenty of clouds expected through tonight temperatures will
continue to be moderated somewhat with highs climbing to the mid 80s
for most of the eastern half of the forecast area, including the
immediate coast, and the upper 80s to the west. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most inland areas and the
lower to middle 70s along the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... Mid upper level
ridging over interior eastern portion of the country drifts east
through the period and approaches the east coast by late Tuesday
night. Meanwhile a broad and weak mid upper low develops over the
eastern gulf of mexico. Low pressure slowly works its way down to
the surface Thursday into late Thursday night, with a number of
models indicating a surface low over the central gulf by late
Thursday night. East to southeast low level flow will continue to
bring abundant low level moisture into the region and combined
with the weakness aloft will maintain scattered to ocnly numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. As has been the case, a few
strong storms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop by Wednesday
and continue through the period as the east to southeast surface
flow increases as a result of the developing surface low pressure
area in the central gulf. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s
and overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. 12 ds
long term Friday through Monday ... The developing surface low
pressure over the central gulf could transition into a tropical,
warm core system over the central gulf by Friday and then likely
drift north toward the central gulf coastal region through the
early part of the weekend, although a few model solutions keep it
closer to the florida peninsula. NHC is now indicating a 40
percent chance of a some gradual subtropical or tropical
development later this week while the system moves slowly
northward into the central or eastern gulf of mexico. There is
still some uncertainty with the forecast movement and strength of
this system as it moves generally north toward the northern gulf
coast. It is still too early to discuss any real specifics with
this system, but the overall developing pattern does continue to
support at least likely pops across most of the gulf coast region
through the period. Depending on the evolution of the system
other impacts such as potential flash flood concerns, as well some
marine hazards such as minor coastal flooding and high surf and
increased rip current risk along area beaches may have to be
addressed as well. We will continue to monitor this situation.

Little change in temperatures is expected in the long term,
although daytime highs could be a little lower by the weekend due
to extensive cloud cover and precipitation. 12 ds
marine... A weak upper low over the western gulf combined with a
weak upper ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern gulf
will help maintain a light to moderate southerly wind flow over
the marine area through thu. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will also continue through Thu with the best
coverage occurring near the coast and over inland bays and sounds.

By late Thu into Fri a developing sfc low over the south central
gulf will begin to shift northward leading to a moderate to
occasionally strong easterly flow over the marine area late in the
week and over the weekend. At this time easterly winds possibly
near small craft levels can be expected late in the week and over
the weekend. Due to the uncertainty with the track and intensity
the impacts to the marine area are subject change each day as we
near the weekend. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will be likely with this pattern late in the week. Stay tuned to
local media outlets or NOAA weather radio on this developing
weather pattern late in the week and over the weekend. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi43 min S 1.9 G 5.1 88°F 83°F1016.9 hPa
PPTA1 45 mi61 min 83°F 1016.3 hPa
PCBF1 47 mi43 min S 9.9 G 11 78°F 80°F1017.7 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi31 min S 1.9 G 3.9 81°F 1016.6 hPa (-1.3)71°F
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi43 min S 13 G 16 79°F 80°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi95 minSSE 710.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity84°F72°F68%1017.1 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi96 minN 310.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain82°F70°F68%1017.8 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi38 minVar 610.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1016.6 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3--------------SW3S5SW4SW5SW5N4NE3CalmCalmE4--S4CalmNW7S7SE9
1 day agoW5CalmS5NE6CalmCalmE5NW6NE5NE6NE3NE5NE6NE4NE5N4N4NE3NE6E6--CalmNW3Calm
2 days agoS9S11SW8SW8S7S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmS8S10
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:51 AM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 PM CDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.30.20.10-000.10.20.40.50.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.21.110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM CDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.10.10-0-0-0000.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.