Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:23PM Thursday April 27, 2017 1:49 PM CDT (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 8:54PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 117 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Friday..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southeast. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming south. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 117 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds will decrease today as a cold front stalls over northern portions of marine area. Winds will increase again along with building seas this weekend ahead of another approaching cold front. This front is expected to move across the marine area Sunday night into early Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 271755 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1255 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017

Discussion See updated information for marine areas and aviation
discussion below.

Marine Marine package will be updated to drop expiring scy for
offshore waters.

/16

Aviation
18z issuance... Stalled surface front along i65 will wash out this
afternoon through tonight, with isentropic upglide showers
developing overnight and lasting into Friday morning. CIGS are
expected to drop near the MVFR/ifr border overnight, but remain
at low end MVFR levels. Local ifr CIGS possible, though. Into
Friday morning, CIGS are expected to be slow to rise due to the
upglide shra, remaining in MVFR levels.

/16

Prev discussion /issued 1147 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... A weakening boundary has stalled along the i65 corridor
as expected. Precip coverage is confined to the northeastern
quarter of the forecast area, and continues to steadily decrease
as the upper trough stretching southeast from a closed low over
the northern mississippi river valley. Cloud cover has eroded
nicely northwest of i65, and with a bit drier air moving over from
the west, do not see any precip these areas. No updates planned
for the current package.

/16
prev discussion... /issued 648 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... MVFR to ifr conditions this morning in scattered
rain showers. The rain will end from west to east this morning
withVFR conditions developing through the afternoon. Low clouds
and patchy fog develop late tonight into Friday morning with MVFR
conditions possible. /13
prev discussion... /issued 448 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017/
near term /now through Thursday night/... A cold front continues
to make slow progress across southeast mississippi this morning
and slowly shift eastward through the day. A broken line of
showers and thunderstorms along the front continues to move east
and weaken as the upper dynamics move well north of the region.

Therefore, the severe threat for the rest of the day is very low.

The cold front is expected to stall across eastern zones this
afternoon and have maintained chance pops across the eastern third
of the area through the afternoon hours. A drier and cooler
airmass will work into western areas in the wake of the front
briefly this afternoon as the front stalls out. The front will
rapidly return northward as a warm front tonight as the next storm
system develops across the western states. An isolated shower is
possible along the retreating front, however the probability is
too low to include at this time. Highs today will climb into the
low 80s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Lows tonight range
from the low 60s across northwest areas to low 70s along the
coast. /13
short term /Friday through Saturday night/... An upper level ridge
of high pressure will continue to build from the fl peninsula to
the western atlantic through Saturday night, while the next upper
level low pressure system deepens over the four corners region
Friday, then advances eastward toward the tx/ok panhandles
vicinity Saturday into Saturday night. Our forecast area will
remain within a mean southwest flow pattern aloft between these
features through Saturday night. A southerly low level flow,
breezy at times, will persist across our region through the short
term period between a surface ridge of high pressure over the
western atlantic and the deepening low pressure system over the
plains. Plentiful low level moisture will continue to stream into
the area on the southerly winds through Saturday night, with
surface dewpoints looking to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Short term models continue to trend with potential development of
isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm within the low level
warm advection regime Friday, particularly during the morning
hours, and have maintained a slight chance of convection across
the region. Rainfall amounts should be light. A deep layer dry
airmass within the southwest flow should allow for dry weather
Friday night. Highs Friday look to range from the mid to upper 80s
inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s along the beaches. Lows Friday
night will be warm, with readings ranging from around 70 to the
lower 70s.

A similar pattern will continue Saturday, with southwest flow
aloft continuing in advance of the deep upper level low/trough
over the southern rockies and adjacent plains states. Weak ascent,
available instability and a slight increase in deep layer moisture
will favor development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms around the region Saturday, and will keep 20-30%
pops in place. Coverage should tend to decrease by Saturday
evening. Highs Saturday are once again forecast to range in the
mid to upper 80s inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated
again along the immediate coast and beaches. /21
long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... We are still expecting a
potential severe weather and heavy rainfall event to impact much
of our forecast area Sunday into Sunday night. The aforementioned
deep upper level low will lift northeastward across ok/ks during
the day Sunday, while an associated cold front advances eastward
across the mississippi valley region. Deep layer forcing/synoptic
scale lift will spread across the mississippi valley during the
day Sunday, allowing for the organization of an intense
complex/line of thunderstorms to spread eastward from ar/la into
ms during the day Sunday. A rather strong low level jet still
looks to develop across our forecast area ahead of the upper level
storm system Sunday, especially along and west of i-65 where 40-55
knots of 850 mb southerly flow is expected. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms should develop over much of the area ahead of
the main line to our west during the day Sunday, with the best
coverage along and west of the i-65 corridor. There are still some
timing differences noted in the operational medium range guidance,
but it generally appears that the main complex of showers and
thunderstorms should continue to advance eastward across our
forecast area Sunday evening into late Sunday night, before
progressing east of our area for the most part by late Monday
morning. The combination of the strong low level jet, favorable
0-6 km shear, up to around 1000-1500 j/kg of mlcape, and 0-1km srh
values up to 200-300 m2/s2 will be supportive of severe storms,
with all modes possible. Right now severe potential looks most
favored along and west of i-65 where shear/instability parameters
are most coincident, and this is where the latest day 4 outlook
from SPC highlights a 15% severe risk. Would not be surprised to
see this risk level increase with time and will continue to
monitor closely. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding may
become a concern as precipitable water values rise between 1.75"
and 2.25", which is very impressive. Rainfall amounts between 2-4"
with locally higher totals will certainly be possible with this
event, and will also mention potential heavy rain/flooding
concerns in the hwo Sunday into Sunday night. Drier zonal flow is
anticipated Monday into Tuesday. However, yet another round of
showers and storms returns Wednesday into Wednesday night as the
next system moves across the region. /21
marine... Southerly winds will decrease today as a cold front stalls
over northern portions of marine area. Winds will increase again
along with building seas this weekend ahead of another approaching
cold front. This front is expected to move across the marine area
Sunday night into early Monday. /13

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Friday morning for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday morning for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi49 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 80°F 74°F1010.3 hPa (+0.5)
PPTA1 45 mi49 min S 6 79°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.0)
PCBF1 47 mi49 min S 14 G 16 75°F 75°F1011.8 hPa (+0.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi59 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 74°F5 ft1009.9 hPa (+1.2)75°F
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi49 min S 17 G 25 77°F 75°F1011.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi1.9 hrsS 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F79%1010.6 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi1.9 hrsSSW 135.00 miFog/Mist77°F72°F87%1011.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi56 minVar 67.00 miLight Rain79°F79°F100%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S14
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1 day agoS11S11S11
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S10SW8SW9SW4SW5SW5SW5SW4SW6S5S6S7S8S11S11S11S14S11S14S15
2 days agoNW11
G18
NW13--NW11NW12
G15
W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3Calm33W5S9S11

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:27 PM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.70.811.11.31.41.51.51.41.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:07 PM CDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-000.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.50.50.40.40.30.20.10-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.