Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday October 19, 2017 9:34 AM CDT (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 6:30PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 430 Am Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft should exercise caution this morning...
Today..East winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 430 Am Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow will persist through the remainder of the week as a strong surface ridge of high pressure remains across the southeast states. There will be an increasing chance of showers and Thunderstorms over the marine area this weekend as a cold front approaches the marine area. Increasing offshore flow can be expected late Monday following the passage of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191133
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
633 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the period.

The goes-16 fog difference channel and surface observations are
indicating that some lower cloud decks are pushing inland over
southern portions of the area early this morning. A brief period
of scattered to locally broken decks around 4 kft agl will be
possible early this morning. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies
and northeast to east winds between 5-10 knots to prevail. 21

Prev discussion issued 454 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017
near term now through Thursday night ... A surface ridge of high
pressure will continue to extend from the mid-atlantic region and
southwestward through the tennessee valley and central gulf coast
region today and tonight. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
meanwhile build eastward across much of the gulf of mexico and
extend northward across our region through tonight. The deep layer
dry and subsident airmass will hold in place across the area today
and tonight, with precipitable water values remaining under an inch.

Pops will remain nil today and tonight underneath mostly clear
skies. Surface dewpoints may modify slightly today, but an overall
dry airmass will remain in place with continued northeast to east
surface flow. Highs today should trend a few degrees warmer across
the region, with readings generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Lows tonight remain fairly cool, ranging from around 50 to the mid
50s over interior areas and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s
closer to the coast. 21
short term Friday through Saturday night ... The upper ridge over
the area will move eastward as an upper trough approaches from
the west. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge of high pressure will also
shift eastward, allowing east to southeast winds to develop on
Saturday. This will bring deep layer moisture back northward into
the area. As moisture increases, chances for showers and
thunderstorms also increase by late in the day on Saturday. Highs
will be in the low to mid 80s with lows moderating as moisture
levels increase. 13
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Global models agree on
digging a deep trough over the plains and moving eastward with an
associated cold front moving through the area sometime on Monday.

The GFS sends the front through Monday morning while the ECMWF is
about 12 hours later as it cuts off the upper low farther west
than the GFS causing the slower motion. The euro solution also
develops a more expansive warm sector across the gulf coast with
some higher 850mb winds, which would favor the potential of strong
storms. Due to the large uncertainty, will maintain high rain
chances for the Sunday and Monday time frame. A deeper trough digs
over the east late in the period sending another cold front
southward across the area. While this front will not have any
moisture to work with, it will send a much colder and drier
airmass into the deep south for the second half of next week. 13
marine... A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east flow
will persist across the marine area through Friday as surface high
pressure continues to extend from the mid-atlantic region to the
northern gulf of mexico. Moderate southeasterly flow will return
this weekend as the surface ridge shifts eastward and a cold front
approaches the mississippi valley region. There will be an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over the marine area
this weekend, especially going into late Sunday and Monday as the
front approaches the marine area. A moderate to strong offshore flow
will follow the passage of the front, which currently looks to be
sometime late Monday or Monday night. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi46 min 66°F 74°F1023.3 hPa
PPTA1 45 mi64 min 68°F 1022.7 hPa
PCBF1 47 mi46 min NE 6 G 13 67°F 77°F1023.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi44 min E 16 G 18 75°F 79°F4 ft1021.8 hPa (+1.7)68°F
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi46 min ENE 8 G 13 68°F 77°F1023.2 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi1.7 hrsNE 410.00 miFair62°F54°F76%1022.5 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi40 minNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds66°F55°F68%1024 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi42 minENE 910.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E9E11E7E5E7E7E5E6NE4NE6N5NE6E6NE7NE7NE6NE7E6NE3NE7N4NE4NE4
1 day agoNE11E11E10E9NE11NE10
G15
NE12NE9NE7NE8NE6NE10NE7NE6NE4E4E8E7E6NE5NE7NE7NE8E9
2 days agoN13N10N12N14NE12N13N17
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NE8NE10NE7NE8NE8NE9NE13
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.31.31.21.110.90.80.70.70.70.60.70.70.80.80.90.9111.11.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:43 AM CDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:36 AM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.