Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mary Esther, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday August 24, 2017 5:38 AM CDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:06AMMoonset 9:25PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 429 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 429 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis..Surface front eases southward into the coastal waters today and stalls over the northern gulf tonight and Friday. Surface high pressure building over the upper mid west today, expands eastward this weekend, resulting in a more established east to northeast flow over the coastal waters. Meanwhile, tropical storm harvey over the southwest gulf is forecast to intensify to a hurricane before making landfall on the texas coast Saturday morning. Long period swell emanating out from the storm should begin arriving by Friday and will likely continue into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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location: 30.41, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 240930
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
430 am cdt Thu aug 24 2017

Near term now through Thursday night Surface front has made
it southward and was draped from off the southeast us coast to
near the hwy 84 corridor over our interior zones, west to the
upper texas coast. Satellite shows a shield of broken to overcast,
mainly high based clouds over the central gulf coast. The frontal
zone is progged to sink a bit more south today and is progged to
slip off the coast in the near term. The slightly better chances
of showers and storms will be aligned east to west over the
southern half of the local area closer to the frontal boundary and
associated better ascent. The front is also noted to be embedded
within a better, but narrow east to west deep layer moisture
profile (pwat's ~2.0 inches). The far northern zones see pwat's
trend lower to ~ 1.6" thru the course of the day and a net lower
precipitation chance (10% or less) is advertised there. Today's
highs generally in the lower 90s. With the frontal boundary off
the coast tonight, a slight chance of showers and storms is
highlighted over the marine area, with land zones looking to
remain rain-free. Overnight lows possibly dipping into the upper
60s far northern zones, while mid to upper 70s hold near the
coast.

Special feature of the day is tropical storm harvey over the
southwest gulf. Satellite representation of harvey this morning is
much improved and the national hurricane center calls for harvey
to continue to intensify over the warm waters of the gulf of mexico,
while tracking northwest, closing in on the texas coast. 10

Short term Friday through Saturday night An upper trof over
the interior easternmost states weakens slightly through Friday
night as upper ridging strengthens a bit over the northeastern
gulf and tropical system harvey nears the southern texas coast.

Upper ridging over the northeastern gulf weakens Saturday into
Saturday night as harvey is expected to move slowly into and
meander over southern texas while the upper trof strengthens over
the eastern states. A weak frontal boundary remains over the far
northern gulf through the period. Friday continues to have the
least convective coverage of the entire forecast with the nearby
upper ridging strengthening a bit over the northeastern gulf and
have gone with mostly isolated convection except for isolated to
scattered convection for the southern fourth of the area. For
Saturday, with harvey lingering over southern texas rather than
beginning to be absorbed into the strengthening eastern states
upper trof along with the frontal boundary being located over the
northern gulf, coverage of convection looks to be at best
scattered and have gone with low end chance pops well inland
ranging to good chance pops closer to the coast. With the steering
flow remaining weak, the stronger storms that develop each day
will be capable of locally heavy rains. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. An elevated rip
current risk is expected during the period due to potentially
long period swell from harvey impacting the area. Highs on Friday
will be in the lower 90s then in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday
due to abundant, thick cloud cover. Lows will be mostly in the
lower 70s except for mid 70s at the coast. 29

Long term Sunday through Wednesday The forecast during the
long term period remains especially challenging. With harvey
expected to linger over southeastern texas into Monday per the
latest NHC track, this has resulted in some downward adjustments
to pops in the beginning of the long term period - really just
keeping pops in the scattered category and eliminating likely
pops. Harvey (or the remnants of) moves slowly east-northeastward
during the remainder of the period but the bulk of the convection
associated with this feature may remain west of the forecast area
except for possibly late in the period depending on how quickly
the system begins to advance. Have continued with good chance pops
for the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe for now. There remains
at least some potential for a heavy rain and or severe weather
event to occur over the area, but now looks to be delayed until
late in the period at the earliest - with very low confidence on
this timing - and is entirely dependent on how and when harvey
moves out of texas. An elevated risk of rip currents will continue
through the period. 29

Marine Surface front eases southward into the coastal waters
today and moves south of the marine area tonight and Friday before
stalling. Surface high pressure building over the upper mid-west
today, expands eastward this weekend resulting in a more established
east to northeast flow over the coastal waters. Meanwhile tropical
storm harvey is forecast to intensify to a hurricane before
making landfall on the texas coast Saturday morning. Long period
swell emanating out from the storm should begin arriving by Friday
and will likely continue into the weekend. 10

Preliminary point temps pops
Mobile 91 72 92 74 40 10 30 30
pensacola 90 74 92 75 30 10 30 30
destin 90 78 92 77 30 10 30 20
evergreen 91 69 92 72 10 10 20 20
waynesboro 91 68 91 71 20 10 20 20
camden 91 69 91 73 10 10 10 20
crestview 93 72 94 73 20 10 30 20

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi57 min 78°F 87°F1011.6 hPa
PPTA1 45 mi69 min NNE 6 78°F 1011.9 hPa
PCBF1 47 mi51 min NNW 6 G 8 79°F 1011.1 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi49 min NNE 12 G 12 83°F 87°F1 ft1011.1 hPa (-0.5)74°F
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi51 min N 5.1 G 5.1 82°F 90°F1011.1 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL3 mi1.7 hrsN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F72°F91%1011 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL12 mi1.7 hrsN 410.00 miOvercast76°F72°F89%1011.7 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi46 minN 510.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4N6N6N6CalmS8S8S7S7SW8NW4CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN7N5NE3CalmN7N5N5
1 day agoN3N4NE5E7CalmS9S9N113CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN4N4N5N4N4
2 days agoCalmNE5CalmNE533SE8S9W7E10
G16
N7NE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM CDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:43 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.80.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.911.11.21.21.31.31.31.21.21.1110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM CDT     0.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:42 AM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:37 PM CDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.