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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 339 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers. Sunday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 339 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure well to our northeast and a deepening surface low along the lee side of the rockies is helping build winds across the local waters. A surface low will develop today and deepen as it moves across the plains and into the upper mississippi valley on Sunday. Additionally, the high over the western portions of the atlantic will slide south and become centered east of the carolinas. This should maintain or even strengthen the gradient across the area leading to additional strong southerly winds. This will keep small craft advisory conditions in place through Sunday night. Also, the persistent southerly flow will produce a large fetch across the gulf with seas likely higher than typical as long swell develops.

FXUS64 KLIX 272326 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 626 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Generally speaking, upper level ridge is in place across the eastern third of the country and an upper trough covers the rest of the country. The CWA is currently on the western side of the ridge.
Steadily onshore flow has brought in quite a bit of low level moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Due to this and NBM being slightly too cool last night, went ahead and bumped up overnight lows slightly. That'll give us a warm start to Sunday with most locations having lows around 70 degrees. Model soundings show PW's still quite low, not much over 1", except for along the MS coast. It's here that slightly higher column moisture as well as moisture convergence along the coast combined with diurnal heating will allow for scattered showers to develop. Based on this and agreement from global models, have increased the areal extent of last night's forecast rain on Sunday.

A bit more complex setup looks to develop on Monday related to the upper level trough currently draped across the Rocky Mountains.
Models show the base of this trough rotating northeast Sunday with a closed low moving through the upper Mississippi Valley Monday. At the same time, a piece of energy breaks off the southwestern side of the trough and heads due west towards the Lower Mississippi Valley.
It's this shortwave that'll initiate stronger convection in north Louisiana Monday morning. All the CAMs, and even the global models, show an MCS developing there, cold pooling and diving southeastward.
The 2 questions are what's its actual trajectory going to be and how strong will it be when it gets closer to the Gulf Coast. Model soundings show sub-severe wind shear but more than ample CAPE.
That's completely expected with a weak shortwave driving the show and late spring temps in place. Thus, think timing will play a big factor in if the MCS is able to capitalize on instability in place.
How soon it starts to cold pool will be a big factor on if it dives south across southwest LA or southeast LA and southern MS. Thus, SPC's marginal outlook is quite appropriate for this potential event.



LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Tuesday sees us right in the middle of upper level northern and southern flows with very gentle troughing over the western CONUS and weak ridging over the eastern Pacific across northern Mexico and into the northern Gulf. At the surface we have the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic and low pressure over the western US down into Mexico. Several shortwaves move through the upper levels as the week progresses, drawing moisture into the area and giving us several chances for rain. The greatest chance is on Tuesday with PoPs around 50% and forecasted amounts generally around 1/3 of an inch. It doesn't look like any severe weather will accompany the rain. Temperatures start a bit above normal with lows in the mid- 60s to low 70 and highs in the low to mid 80s. By the weekend we are looking at highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds should be out of the south to southeast and 10-15mph.



AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong east-southeasterly flow will continue to impact all terminals for the entire forecast period. Winds will shift slightly more southeasterly as the approaching cold front get closer towards the end of the period. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the front could cause some patchy MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning before daybreak. Once the sun comes up, those low ceiling should break up and VFR conditions return for the rest of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A surface ridge centered in the western Atlantic Ocean just off the East Coast. It'll remain there throughout the forecast period.
That'll keep onshore flow entrenched. The local pressure gradient between that feature and deepening low in the Central Plains has increased winds and seas/waves into Small Craft Advisory. Expect those conditions to persist through this weekend. Have made a 12 hour extension to the advisory based on latest forecast winds.
Otherwise, a slight weakening in the gradient will allow for winds to fall into Exercise Caution next week.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 82 68 80 / 0 20 10 80 BTR 71 88 73 85 / 0 10 10 80 ASD 69 83 70 84 / 0 20 0 50 MSY 72 84 73 85 / 0 10 0 60 GPT 70 80 70 81 / 0 30 0 30 PQL 67 82 68 84 / 0 20 0 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ058-070-076- 078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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