Monday, September25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Hudson Bend, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:25PM Sunday September 24, 2017 11:13 PM CDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 9:33PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hudson Bend, TX
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location: 30.41, -97.93     debug

Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 250105
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
805 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017

Convection across central and eastern areas will continue to
gradually weaken through the evening and dissipate. Elevated showers
also moving northeast through the western and northern hill country
will gradually weaken. Better chances for showers and thunder
overnight will be along the rio grande and southwest edwards plateau
closer to larger scale forcing. A few of the hi resolution models did
indicate streamer type convection develop early Monday morning
farther east, roughly near and west of the i-37 corridor into the
central and western hill country, but this should be shallow.

Prev discussion issued 656 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017
aviation... 00z_tafs
isolated convection that has been affecting the i-35 TAF sites is in
the process of dissipating with additional development not expected.

Vfr conditions are expected at all sites this evening as southeast
5-10 knot flow persists with some brief stronger gusts during the
early evening hours. Moist onshore flow will allow for MVFR ceilings
at Sat by 5z and ssf by 7z, earlier than model guidance suggests but
a bit later than the past few evenings. Winds will continue to be
weaker at aus to delay the onset of MVFR ceilings or patchy fog until
closer to 9z, with ifr visibilities and ceilings between 11-15z.VFR
conditions should return between 17-18z at the i-35 sites, with
isolated to scattered convection expected through the afternoon.

Shower activity near drt is ongoing, so we will continue to carry
vcsh there through 2z. The ceiling forecast is trickier at drt due to
having more midlevel cloud cover ahead of the trough and front that
is located further west. MVFR ceilings should develop late in the
overnight hours and may persist into the early afternoon hours unlike
today. Shower activity should be more widespread tomorrow afternoon
than it was today, but we kept drt at vcsh instead of prevailing
showers. Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase into the
evening hours just beyond the end of their TAF period.

Prev discussion... Issued 324 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017
short term (tonight through Monday evening)...

the long awaited milder weather pattern is on the way as a tropical
storm influenced air mass looks to cloud up the skies for much of the
day Monday with a cooling trend going forward. High temps should be
4-8 degrees cooler than those from today.

The bigger story is that a significant pacific tropical storm related
rain event is going to unfold which will be further elaborated in
the next long term section. Scattered showers continue to stream over
the coastal prairies into areas along hwy 281 and are peaking at the
current time due to good insolation and pwat values of around 1.7
inches. Higher amounts of cloud cover have already taken over the
areas west of hwy 83 where intermittent showers and pwat values
around 2.0 inches exist. Initial rains are expected to create only
isolated and minor run-off concerns through midday Monday, although a
few of the higher resolution models yesterday signaled an isolated
pocket of heavy rain already into the drt area by daybreak Monday. By
Monday afternoon, a ffa will likely be needed as areas along and
west of hwy 83 begin to see scattered slow moving heavy showers and
storms with some potential MCV activity going into the evening hours.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)...

by late Monday night, the full impact of tropical storm pilar will be
felt over our western counties and the pattern is expected to be near
stationary through Wednesday night as a slow moving upper trough
pulls the moisture over our western counties like a conveyor belt.

A persistent complex of convection is expected in the early morning
hours Tuesday with areas of 4+ inch rains possible mainly along and
west of hwy 83. In general, the western half of south central texas
has been well below normals in terms of late summer early fall
precip. The first 24-hr impacts and flash flood threats are thus
expected to be localized. However, the multi-day rain event has the
potential to last into at least Thursday morning, leading to a high
chance for river rises along and west of highway 281 with the rivers
near highway 83 possibly receiving the most water.

By 12z Wednesday, the cold front associated with the upper trough
should enter the southern edwards plateau counties, while a backdoor
fropa is expected to spread into the i-35 corridor from the east.

With constant training of convection and tropical air expected to
continue moving through the highway 83 corridor, the cold front
progress may be upended slightly, as model data shows a kink in the
surface pressure patterns over the rio grande plains and SRN edwards
plateau into Wednesday evening.

Models have trended more progressive with the front Wednesday,
resulting in lower high temps by this time. By late Wednesday night,
the continued fetch of moisture from pilar is forecast to be
weakened, as the NHC has the system weakened to a depression and near
the coast of mexico over 24 hours earlier. Storm total rains to
justify the anticipated ffa watch is thus concentrated from 12z
Monday through 12z Thursday, with common amounts introduced in the
3-6 inch range and higher isolated totals around 8 inches. Rainfall
amounts expected after this period should generally be less than 1 2
inch given the latest model handling of the cold front.

Rain chances in a more modest overrunning pattern should continue to
be high through Friday, especially over the areas to the west where
frontal depth is more shallow. The mid level pattern is significantly
compromised by next weekend, but there remains abundant moisture and
possibly a portion of elevated dynamics left from the remnants of
pilar possibly continuing light rain chances. Will keep with a milder
and more moist pattern for late next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 72 89 73 87 72 10 20 20 50 50
austin bergstrom intl airport 71 89 72 86 71 10 30 20 50 40
new braunfels muni airport 72 88 73 86 72 10 40 20 50 50
burnet muni airport 70 86 71 83 70 10 20 20 50 60
del rio intl airport 74 87 73 84 71 50 70 80 80 80
georgetown muni airport 71 88 72 86 71 10 20 20 40 40
hondo muni airport 73 91 74 87 73 20 40 50 70 70
san marcos muni airport 72 88 73 86 71 10 30 20 50 50
la grange - fayette regional 72 89 73 89 73 10 30 20 30 30
san antonio intl airport 73 88 74 85 73 20 40 40 60 60
stinson muni airport 74 89 75 86 74 20 40 40 60 60

Ewx watches warnings advisories

Mesoscale aviation... Lh
synoptic grids... Runyen
public service data collection... 33

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX6 mi19 minSE 610.00 miFair78°F69°F76%1012.9 hPa
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry, TX11 mi23 minSSE 410.00 miFair78°F70°F76%1011 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX19 mi39 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1012.2 hPa
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, TX21 mi21 minSE 410.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1010.7 hPa
Georgetown, Georgetown Municipal Airport, TX23 mi18 minSE 410.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1011.8 hPa
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX24 mi19 minSE 510.00 miFair77°F67°F72%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from RYW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6SE5SE7SE5S6SE6S6S6SE5
1 day agoSE6SE5S6S4S3S3S6S5S5S5S6SE7SE7SE8SE6SE7SE6
2 days agoSE4SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.