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FXUS64 KEWX 181133 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 633 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Based on webcams trends and GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics imagery, we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Fayette, Gonzales, Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties through 9 AM this morning.
Visibility is reduced to 1/4 mile less in areas of dense fog across this region.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The base of the upper level trough axis is currently moving through central Texas and will continue east through the morning. Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area this afternoon through Sunday, producing dry, mostly clear, and much warmer temperatures. Fog development is expected through the remainder of the overnight hours near and east of I-35 and I-37, mixing out after sunrise. Some areas of dense fog will be possible and we will monitor the region through the remainder of the overnight for a possible Dense Fog Advisory.

High temperatures today and Sunday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, and 100 to 104 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

An upper level ridge will dominate across TX during the beginning of next week. The low level flow will be mostly southeasterly through Wednesday. Hot temperatures will continue into next week. Highs will be from the 90s to near 105 each day through Wednesday. Record highs may be possible along the Rio Grande, and we may see our first 100 degree day in the central part of the CWA Tuesday. We may need to issue some heat products starting Tuesday. Tuesday night the upper ridge will shift toward the east, and the flow over TX will become west-southwesterly. There will be low chances for convection during the afternoons and evenings Wednesday and Thursday over the northern part of the CWA Wednesday a shortwave trough will move through the upper pattern and a frontal boundary will stall across Central Texas and this combination may provide enough lift to generate some showers and thunderstorms. Thursday another shortwave will move through and help generate convection along a dryline that will move into the western part of our CWA Most of the activity will be north of our CWA, but some storms could develop in our area. However, most of the area will stay dry both days. Temperatures may drop a couple of degrees Thursday with any cloud cover and precipitation.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in low stratus and fog exist early this morning east of I-35. Along and just west of the I-35 corridor, stratus and fog is a little more patchy, however some locations were seeing IFR to MVFR conditions. The low stratus and fog should mix out around 14Z-15Z with VFR conditions through the remainder of the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 93 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 91 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 76 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for De Witt-Fayette- Gonzales-Karnes-Lavaca.

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Central Texas,