Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Clear, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:52PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:03 PM CST (01:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 352 Pm Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 352 Pm Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis..A light to moderate northerly wind flow will persist over the marine area through early Tuesday as high pressure continues to build east over the north central gulf. A light east to southeast wind flow is expected by mid week as high pressure shifts east. Southerly winds and seas will build later in the week as a deep area of low pressure and associated cold front approach from the west. Showers and Thunderstorms area expected ahead and along the front with the best coverage occurring late Thursday through early Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Clear, AL
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location: 30.42, -88     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 102352 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
552 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... Ceilings over the north central gulf coast region
will fluctuate between 2500 feet (upper end MVFR) to 3500 feet
(vfr) through much of the night, followed by a gradual clearing
from west to east late tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds will be
mostly northwest to north at 5 to 10 knots over the next 24
hours. 22

Prev discussion issued 354 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018
near term now through Tuesday ... Persistent low stratus clouds
moving southward towards the coast will continue over much of the
forecast area through this evening before exiting to the east
late tonight and early Tue morning. This pattern is associated
with a deepen upper trof over much of the eastern CONUS generally
east of the ms river valley that is progged to move east of the
north central gulf coast region and forecast area late tonight
through tue. By late tonight and early Tue skies will be partly
cloudy to mostly clear followed by plenty of sunshine during the
day on tue.

Temperatures through the next 24 hours will continue to be 5 to 8
degrees below seasonal norms combined with a light north wind
leading to another cold night. A light freeze will also be possible
by early Tue mainly for most locations generally along and west of a
line stretching from wiggins ms to butler al. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 20s to middle 30s for areas generally along and
west of of the i-65 corridor and the middle to upper 30s for all
other inland areas to the east and south and the lower 40s along
area beaches. 32 ee
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... Broad upper
ridging shifts eastward across the region through Wednesday along
with a dome of cool surface high pressure over the area moving
off to the east. Expect to see a light freeze over much of the
inland portion Tuesday night, then a light southerly flow is
established on Wednesday which brings more seasonable temperatures
back to the area. A dramatic change to the pattern occurs later
in the period as a large upper trof advances into the central
states then forms an unusually deep upper low over texas on
Thursday which may cross the sabine river late Thursday night.

This is a whopper of an anomalously deep upper low, some 4-7
standard deviations below normal. An associated surface low tracks
along the red river valley Wednesday night into Thursday,
occluding with the upper system in the process, then progresses
slowly a bit further eastward Thursday night. Ahead of the
approaching surface low, a series of strong shortwaves and low
level warm air advection leads to the formation of a region of
enhanced deep layer lift, along with a prefrontal trof, which
approaches the forecast area from the west on Thursday. There are
some timing uncertainties, but at this point the strong deep layer
lift is expected to shift eastward across the forecast area
Thursday night, although may begin over southeast mississippi late
Thursday afternoon.

Despite the strength of the forcing, instability still looks
limited. MLCAPE values range from 100-200 j kg over interior areas
to 200-500 j kg over the coastal counties. Model soundings show
the limited instability is due to unfavorable lapse rates is
lowest 3 km (even extending higher). An impressive 850 mb jet of
45-55 knots results in high shear values, with 0-1 km helicity
values of 200-500 m2 s2. As long as the instability remains low
and lapse rates essentially unfavorable, the potential for strong
storms looks very low, although an exception to this is near the
coast where the (albeit low) instability is maximized. Have opted
to introduce the possibility of some strong storms near the coast
Thursday night in the hazardous weather outlook. Another concern
is the potential for heavy rain over the coastal counties, which
received heavy rain on Saturday the 8th. Guidance is advertising
1.5-3.0 inches of rain over extreme southwest alabama and 1-1.5
inches further to the east. Will also include mention in the
hazardous weather outlook for locally heavy rainfall. Dry
conditions continue through Wednesday with a return of slight
chance pops to the western portion of the area Wednesday night.

For Thursday, pops increase to likely over the western portion
with chance pops prevailing further to the east, then categorical
pops follow for Thursday night. 29
long term Friday through Monday ... The upper low continues
slowly eastward across the central gulf coast states on Friday
then moves well off to the northeast during the remainder of the
period. The associated surface low lumbers across the lower
mississippi river valley to near eastern tennessee through Friday
night, then likewise moves well off to the northeast with the
upper system. Will have likely pops over the easternmost portion
of the area on Friday, with chance pops further to the west, then
mainly slight chance pops for Friday night for lingering
precipitation. Dry conditions develop for the remainder of the
period. 29
marine... A light to moderate northerly wind flow will persist
over the marine area through early Tue as high pressure continues to
build east over the north central gulf. A light east to southeast
wind flow is expected by mid week as high pressure shifts east.

Southerly winds and seas will build later in the week as a deep area
of low pressure and associated cold front approach from the west.

Showers and thunderstorms area expected ahead and along the front
with the best coverage occurring late Thu through early fri. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 9 mi78 min 43°F 1024 hPa41°F
WBYA1 9 mi33 min 55°F
MBPA1 9 mi33 min 49°F 40°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 11 mi93 min WSW 1.9 46°F 1023.7 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 11 mi63 min N 2.9 48°F 1024 hPa (+1.4)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 12 mi63 min NNW 9.9 G 12 50°F 1024.2 hPa (+1.2)39°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 13 mi33 min N 13 G 15 50°F 1024.2 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 16 mi183 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 58°F1023.4 hPa (+0.5)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 16 mi63 min N 6 50°F 1024.7 hPa (+1.7)
PTOA1 17 mi33 min 47°F 42°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 17 mi63 min NNE 1.9 45°F 1025.4 hPa (+2.0)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 20 mi33 min 46°F 53°F1024.5 hPa
GBRM6 21 mi123 min 48°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi78 min NNE 2.9 49°F 1025 hPa43°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 30 mi33 min NNW 14 G 17 52°F 1025.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 30 mi33 min 60°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 34 mi33 min 14 G 16 1024.8 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 42 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 6 44°F 60°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Dauphin Island, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL7 mi68 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast43°F39°F87%1024 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL16 mi70 minNW 310.00 miOvercast49°F42°F77%1024.5 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL20 mi68 minWNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F37°F90%1024.4 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi67 minNW 310.00 miOvercast48°F39°F74%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5NW4NW4NW7N8N8NW6NW7NW6NW9
G14
NW6NW7N7NW7N7N5NW5N7
G14
NW5N3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS7
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W6NW6NE3CalmNW3CalmW7W5W3W6NW10
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2 days agoE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE5NE8NE10NE9
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CalmNE5E5SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:17 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:55 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.41.210.70.50.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.80.911.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:07 AM CST     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:17 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:21 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:52 PM CST     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:56 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.4-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1-2.2-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.7-0.20.30.81.21.51.81.921.91.71.41

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.