Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Clear, AL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:08 AM CDT (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 8:42AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 435 Am Cdt Thu Jun 20 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 435 Am Cdt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong southwest wind flow and moderate seas looks to persist today through this evening. Southwest flow continues through the remainder of the forecast with high pressure continuing to the south, but winds lighter. Brief strong gusty winds, frequent cloud to water lightning, visibility reducing heavy downpours and isolated waterspouts will be possible in and near scattered storms today. /10


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Clear, AL
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location: 30.42, -88     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 201137 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
637 am cdt Thu jun 20 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... Radar shows isolated to scattered shra tsra
advancing east northeast over the central gulf coast with bulk of
activity initially over the coastal waters. Another area will
approach the interior this am. Shra tsra coverage is forecast to
increase from west to east today. CIGS lowering to MVFR, perhaps
ifr categories and vsby lowering to ifr categories with passage of
strongest convection. Brief strong winds and frequent lightning
in and near tsra. Away from storms, southwest flow expected to
trend gusty today. 10

Prev discussion issued 437 am cdt Thu jun 20 2019
near term now through Thursday night ... Upper air analysis
this morning shows a vigorous mid upper trof moving east over
western ar. Ahead of this feature, a couple of notable areas of
deep convection. The first and closest to the area has been a cold
pool dominated squall line that has raced eastward at some ~45
knots over the northern al. Cloud tops have warmed with this
feature and lightning activity has been diminishing. The more
significant convective complex where cloud tops are coldest has
been sagging east southeast over northern la. For today, the upper
level trof feature makes steady eastward progression across the
tn valley. The latest high resolution convective allowing models
(cam's) show an initial gradual decay of upstream convection as it
approaches the deep south this morning but shows little
development through the day. However, with the passage of the mid
level feature to our north, forecasters anticipate a pronounced
convective outflow boundary to move over the region which would
favor a better response in new development than the cam's are
suggesting. This feature also interacting with sufficient
instability and deep layer moisture leads to scattered convection.

Tricky forecast as although a weak capping inversion between 800
and 700 mb this afternoon would suggest convection being somewhat
inhibited, feel surface mesoscale boundaries will provide enough
lift to overtake it.

A preliminary look at the convective wet microburst assessment over
the interior zones indicates a higher potential of strong storms
producing brief strong to perhaps damaging winds in excess of 60 mph
over the interior zones, where a marginal risk of severe storms is
outlooked. Also of note favoring the marginal risk area is that the
latest near term guidance has increased 0-6 km bulk shear values
(ranging 25 to 35 knots).

Before storms get going, daytime highs heat up into the lower to mid
90s along and north of i-10. Rain chances trend lower going into
tonight as best upper support will be lifting out to the east. Over
night lows change little. Muggy with mid 70s interior to upper 70s
to near 81 along the beaches.

A high risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents
continues along area beaches. 10
short term Friday through Saturday night ... An upper ridge
oriented along the mississippi river valley amplifies while
shifting a bit further eastward into the eastern states through
Saturday night. A surface ridge over the northern gulf maintains a
moist southwest flow over the forecast area through Saturday night.

Subsidence effects associated with the slow eastward advance of
the upper ridge will have a progressively greater impact on the
area Friday into Saturday. Expect convective coverage with daytime
heating to be limited to isolated at best over much of the area
on Friday, although kept chance pops mainly over portions of south
central alabama where subsidence effects will be the least. For
Saturday, have kept slight chance pops mainly over south central
alabama and parts of interior southwest alabama where subsidence
effects will be the least while the remainder of the area should
be dry. Some storms may become strong to possibly severe each
afternoon. Heat index values on Friday will be around 106 and
will need to monitor as some spots may reach heat advisory
criteria of 108. Heat index values on Saturday look to be more
around 104 or so due to a modest decrease in surface dewpoints.

Highs each day range from the mid 90s inland to the lower 90s near
the coast. Overnight lows range from the lower mid 70s inland to
the upper 70s at the coast. A high risk of rip currents continues
through Friday evening after which a moderate risk of rip currents
will be in effect through Saturday. 29
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... A highly amplified upper
ridge over the eastern states weakens and moves off into the
western atlantic during the period in response to an upper trof
which advances across the plains and into across the interior
eastern states. A surface low associated with the upper trof
passes well north of the region although will also bring a surface
trof into the extreme southeast states late in the period. A
surface ridge over the northern gulf meanwhile shifts northward
into the central gulf coast states, which when combined with the
surface trof results in southerly winds over the forecast area
becoming westerly on Tuesday then northerly on Wednesday - unusual
for this time of year. Have continued with a dry forecast for
Sunday due to subsidence associated with the upper ridge, then
slight chance to chance pops return to the area Monday into
Tuesday as the upper ridge moves off into the western atlantic.

Rain chances on Wednesday look to be slight chance at best given
the somewhat drier surface northerly flow. Highs on Sunday range
from the mid 90s inland to the lower 90s near the coast, then
highs for the remainder of the period will be mainly in the lower
90s. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 70s inland to the
mid upper 70s near the coast then trend a bit cooler through the
period with lows Wednesday night ranging from the upper 60s inland
to the lower 70s near the coast. 29
marine... Ridge of surface high pressure over the southwest atlantic
noses west into the central gulf. Meanwhile, a wave of frontal low
pressure lifts east northeast up into the new england states today
with an attendant front sagging southward over the mid-south. A
moderate to strong southwest wind flow and moderate seas looks to
persist today through this evening. Southwest flow continues through
the remainder of the forecast with high pressure continuing to the
south, but winds lighter. Brief strong gusty winds, frequent cloud
to water lightning, visibility reducing heavy downpours and
isolated waterspouts will be possible in and near scattered storms
today. 10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Friday evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 9 mi83 min 83°F 1014 hPa78°F
MBPA1 9 mi50 min 84°F 78°F
WBYA1 9 mi50 min 82°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 11 mi98 min WSW 16 84°F 1013.9 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 11 mi68 min WSW 11 82°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.7)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 12 mi68 min WSW 7 G 9.9 81°F 1014.1 hPa (+0.9)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 13 mi50 min WSW 12 G 13 82°F 1014.2 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 16 mi50 min WSW 4.1 G 7 84°F 85°F1013.4 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 16 mi68 min W 17 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 17 mi38 min SW 6 82°F 1013.2 hPa
PTOA1 17 mi50 min 83°F 78°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 20 mi56 min 85°F 85°F1013.4 hPa
GBRM6 21 mi128 min 83°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi83 min W 9.9 83°F 1015 hPa77°F
PPTA1 25 mi128 min 83°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 30 mi56 min 85°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 30 mi56 min WSW 13 G 16 85°F 1013.4 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 34 mi88 min 5 ft
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 42 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 8 85°F 85°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Dauphin Island, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL7 mi73 minWSW 310.00 miFair81°F78°F94%1013.9 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL16 mi75 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F79°F82%1013.9 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL20 mi73 minWSW 910.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity85°F78°F81%1014.2 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi72 minWSW 67.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F78°F85%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW6SW4SW5SW6SW7SW9S7SW7
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1 day agoS7CalmCalmW4
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CalmCalmCalmSW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW6SW4SW4CalmCalmSW3
2 days agoSE6S8SE10SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:52 PM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.1-0.100.20.40.60.80.91.11.21.41.61.71.71.71.61.41.10.90.60.40.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:20 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:55 AM CDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:57 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:44 PM CDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.20.30.81.31.61.92.12.12.11.91.51.10.6-0-0.6-1.2-1.6-2-2.2-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.