Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:13 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 330 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late this evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 330 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis - A moderate to strong southeasterly flow persists over the marine area through tonight. Southeasterly winds begin to diminish along with subsiding seas through the early part of this week. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then prevail through the middle to late part of the the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 282308 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 708 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure off the Carolinas keeps southeasterly breezes in the forecast through at least Monday. Moisture in the lower levels is forecast to increase enough to possibly get a shower or two going Monday afternoon. Some of the hi-res guidance is suggesting the best opportunity for that being in the western Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. These trends will be monitored, but a quick look at forecast soundings show enough moisture below H7 for a 10 to 20 percent chance for the areas mentioned earlier.

Temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler than the past couple of nights, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with the middle to upper 60s along the immediate coast. Forecast highs are expected to reach into the middle 80s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A shortwave vorticity maxima across the mid levels that has detached from the main jet stream is expected to propagate eastward through northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia Monday night through Tuesday night. This will bring the weeks only rain chances to portions of the region across SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. PoPs have slightly increased once again from yesterday to now 30-35% across the aforementioned areas.
This is likely due to the increased confidence of the event, along with slightly higher PWATs forecast in the 1.2 inch range. These PWATS will allow for more rainfall to reach the surface than previously forecast/anticipated. Showers will still remain isolated in nature, and QPF will generally remain around 0.25 inches or less.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The forecast area will generally return to dry conditions in the wake of the mid level disturbance that is expected to exit the region prior to Wednesday morning. In the shortwaves wake, mid and upper level ridging is expected to build back over the southeast.
The upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the region through the end of the work week before an upper level trough digs equatorward through the middle Mississippi valley, which will help stream moisture back into the area. Although the trough is expected to lift to the northeast, which will keep much of the forcing for ascent well north of the region, the excess moisture will help lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday. Looking into next weekend, another shortwave impulse in the southern stream looks to exit northern Mexico and Texas, which could lead to some scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday next week. Overall, as the upper level ridge builds over the southeast, temperatures will run much above normal, with highs climbing into the low 90s, and lows dipping into the low 60s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Easterly winds this evening will become southeasterly overnight and more southerly by Monday afternoon. Winds will likely be gusty (up to 20kts) again for the ECP terminal during the afternoon hours. Clouds are expected to be few to scattered throughout the TAF period, remaining VFR with fair weather cumulus developing during the afternoon. There is a minimal chance for light showers around the DHN terminal following 18z Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Elevated southeast winds will continue across all marine zones through the remainder of the afternoon and evening today. Another easterly surge of winds is expected tonight into Monday morning with exercise caution to near advisory level winds. Winds and seas will relax to more favorable conditions starting on Tuesday and continuing through the week as the pressure gradient currently over the region relaxes.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue Monday as moisture levels tick up the next couple of days. There may be enough moisture to squeeze out a shower or two, mainly over the western Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama Monday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue with widespread wetting rains not anticipated through at least the middle of the week. Locally high dispersions remain a concern for across southeastern Alabama.
When coupled with the recent dry spell, this could lead to slightly elevated fire weather conditions Monday. Dispersions are forecast to remain high for portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Seven day areawide rainfall totals are forecast to be generally less than half an inch, with even less forecast across all Florida Zones. Overall, there are no flooding concerns over the next week.
Portions of the Suwannee are still in minor flood, but should drop below flood stage in the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 61 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 20 Panama City 66 81 66 81 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 62 84 63 85 / 0 20 10 40 Albany 60 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 30 Valdosta 61 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 58 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 71 76 67 78 / 0 10 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Sun -- 02:03 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:37 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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