Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 6:02 AM   Moonset 8:29 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 925 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 925 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday.

FXUS62 KTAE 080058 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 858 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 855 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

No major changes were needed on this shift. Fog chances look likely once again towards the early morning hours Wednesday. Some areas may see the potential for dense fog, especially in portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. These conditions are expected to lift around 9-10am EDT Wednesday morning. Another quiet weather day is on tap for Wednesday across the region.



NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The region will remain under the influence of high pressure tonight and on Wednesday. The main concern will be the potential for another round of fog late tonight into Wed morning. Confidence is highest in the FL Counties (particularly the Big Bend) into the I-75 corridor of GA. On Wed, cannot rule out an afternoon shower northwest of the FL Big Bend, such as the SE AL counties, but PoPs are NIL for now given the aforementioned ridging. A warm and humid pattern continues with lows around 70 tonight and highs around 90 on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper level low extending over the central plains will be traversing east-northeast through the day Thursday. Over the southeast U.S., the upper level ridge will be flattening while the aforementioned upper level trough moves east. Ahead of the trough, at the surface, a cold front is forecast to march its way east across the Apalachians and southeast Thursday into Friday.

Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop into a MCS with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes may be possible. The upper level support for Thursday afternoon is expected to lift to the north, allowing for these storms to possibly weaken as they enter into our region. There will be short calm before another MCS makes its way (due to a shortwave perturbation) early Friday with the same severe threats, but is more likely to hold together. The SPC has highlighted areas along and north of I-10 in a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather for Thursday night into Friday morning. The parameters for Thursday night into Friday morning are favorable as we will be in the right- entrance region of the jet stream, shear values will range 30-40 kts, and the instability will be around 2000 J/kg. It is also important to note that with PWATs approaching 2 inches and the east to west line in which the expected storms will be along the front, the WPC has placed a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall across our region for Thursday through Friday. PoPs for Thursday begin to increase during the afternoon hours with a 40-60 percent chance for our SE Alabama counties and SW Georgia counties. Our Florida counties will have a 30 percent chance and below. Friday's chances increase for the entire CWA with a 50-80 percent chance area- wide Friday morning into the afternoon.

The cold front is expected to complete its passage through our region during the day on Friday. Temperatures during this term will have highs in the low 90s on Thursday and cooling to the low 70s Thursday night. Friday's highs will be in the low-mid to upper 80s, with the warmer temps along and south of I-10. Friday night's lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The front has cleared and a surface high will begin building in behind the front. Upper level ridging will soon be building to the west over the weekend and we can expect seasonal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s and morning lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. We can expect dry conditions through Monday, except for the daily seabreeze showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the evening hours, but will quickly give way to fog/low clouds at nearly all terminals once again tonight. Expect IFR to LIFR restrictions at all terminals, with ECP, TLH, and VLD having the highest confidence in LIFR restrictions developing by 09UTC, and lingering through 13UTC. VFR conditions will gradually return to all terminals around 13 UTC, with south/southwest winds around 5-10 knots expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The next chance of wetting rains will be north of I-10 on Thursday and across much of the area on Friday. The main concern will be pockets of high dispersion across much of the region on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Daytime highs climb into the lower 90s away from the immediate coast each afternoon through Thursday with heat indices pushing into the middle 90s.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday and Friday, hence the WPC highlighting our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. This could lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas. Rivers are currently in good shape, and we are not expecting riverine flooding at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 70 90 72 92 / 0 10 0 30 Panama City 73 85 75 86 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 71 91 73 90 / 0 10 0 50 Albany 69 92 72 92 / 0 10 0 60 Valdosta 69 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 30 Cross City 67 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 74 82 75 84 / 0 0 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM CDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 10:51 PM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northwest Florida,