Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeport, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 9:28 PM CST (03:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 3:07AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 336 Pm Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Tonight..Winds light becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Winds light. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 336 Pm Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..A surface low pressure system intensifies as it tracks east over the deep south Thursday, lifting up across the appalachians Thursday night and Friday. As the low passes by to the north and east, strong west to northwest flow sets up resulting in much higher seas. Gale conditions likely to develop over the open gulf waters and perhaps the southern portions of mobile bay Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeport, FL
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location: 30.43, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 190138
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
838 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Update
No major changes needed to the forecast. It will be a cloudy night
which will hold lows in the low to mid 40s.

Aviation
[through 00z Thursday]
mid and high cloud will be plentiful this period which should
hamper fog production overnight across most sites. Vld may
experience MVFR vsbys and increased ll moisture advects from the
east. Otherwise,VFR conditions will rule.

Prev discussion [329 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
Mid and high level cloudiness will increase tonight with high
pressure situated across the area at the surface. The cloud
cover will make for a relatively warmer night, with lows in
the 40s region-wide. Cannot rule out some patchy fog across
the eastern big bend and portions of southwest georgia, but
this potential will be largely tempered by increasing clouds.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday]
Expect increasing cloudiness on Wednesday with the approach
of the next storm system. Cannot rule out a shower mainly
west of the chatahoochee and apalachicola rivers late in the
day. High temperatures near normal.

The next chance of significant rainfall and thunderstorms
continues in the Wednesday night and Thursday time frame.

In terms of rainfall amounts, these will be dependent on the
development of a secondary low pressure and the placement of
a warm front, as well as the evolution of convection within
the warm sector. Overall, rainfall amounts ranging from 1-2
inches with isolated 3 inch amounts are possible, especially
the eastern portion of the area. Any severe weather threat
remains mainly south of the area and over the gulf waters.

In terms of coastal impacts, a strong onshore flow Thursday
into Friday mainly west of apalachicola is expected to lead
to high surf, and a potential for significant beach erosion.

Minor coastal flooding is also possible in the southeast
big bend Thursday night into Friday.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
Cyclonic flow aloft will persist Thursday night into Friday
with cold air advection in the low-levels. This will maintain
considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers during this
period. Highs on Friday will not make it out of the 60s. Model
soundings also indicate mixing up to around 900 hpa Friday
afternoon. Momentum transfer near this level would support
the potential for west-northwest wind gusts around 30-35 mph.

Looking ahead... Finally a nice looking weekend for a change! High
pressure is expected to settle over the region on Saturday and
Sunday with dry weather expected. The high gradually shifts east
on Monday and Tuesday, and with limited moisture, expect a mainly
dry period. Temperatures returning to near normal during this time
frame.

Marine
Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching
low pressure system and reach advisory levels by Thursday. A
strong cold frontal passage is expected across the coastal waters
on Thursday night. Winds will rapidly increase out of the west
with strong gale force gusts up to around 40 knots after midnight
Thursday night into Friday evening. Seas will build 10 to 15 feet
with occasional seas up to 19 feet on Friday. Winds and seas will
be less over apalachee bay. Winds and seas are expected to
gradually improve Friday night into Saturday, with more tranquil
boating conditions by Sunday.

Fire weather
Aside from low dispersions on Wednesday, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected over the next several days.

Hydrology
There are numerous river locations across the eastern half of the
region still in minor flood. The chipola river at altha and the
ochlockonee river near thomasville are expected to drop below
flood stage later today. Further down the ochlockonee river, water
levels will continue to rise with concord cresting just below
moderate flood stage later this evening.

Within the suwannee system, minor flood conditions are now
expected on the withlacoochee river near quitman (us-84) due to
another event above minor flood above valdosta and increased
flows moving down the little river. This in turn will result in
further rises down river into florida, though pinetta will stay
just below flood stage.

A extended period of river flooding is expected for our suwannee
river forecast points from ellaville through wilcox over the next
seven days, even before taking into account any additional
rainfall. For now, it appears that all flooding within our portion
of the suwannee basin will be in the minor category.

For the incoming system on Thursday into Friday, widespread
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is possible with isolated maximum
amounts up to 3 inches, mainly in the eastern half of the region.

These amounts should present a limited flash flood threat, but the
heavier amounts will result in our faster responding rivers
(chipola @ altha, ochlockonee, upper withlacoochee) rising into
the weekend, with minor flooding expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 43 68 55 67 49 0 10 80 100 50
panama city 49 68 57 65 49 0 10 90 80 60
dothan 44 65 51 63 44 0 0 80 90 60
albany 42 64 51 63 47 0 0 80 90 50
valdosta 43 68 54 69 50 0 0 80 90 50
cross city 43 71 57 70 53 0 10 80 100 60
apalachicola 48 67 59 69 50 0 10 90 90 60

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Scholl
near term... Lf
short term... Lf
long term... Lf
aviation... Scholl
marine... Lf
fire weather... Lf
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 23 mi40 min N 6 G 6 56°F 63°F1019 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 34 mi40 min ENE 1 G 1 57°F 60°F1019.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 54 mi40 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 58°F1019.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 76 mi38 min 1.9 G 3.9 1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair52°F46°F83%1018.9 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL18 mi93 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F45°F85%1019.3 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL22 mi35 minNW 310.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N7N7N6N4W3N5N4N3N4NE5N4N4N4CalmS56SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN7NW7NW8N9N10N9N8N8N10N7N8N9N5N6N6N5N8N5NW3NW3CalmNW4N6N5
2 days agoNW4NW6NW6NW10NW7NW9N6N12N9N9NW8N9N11N12NW10N11N10N8N8N5CalmCalmCalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM CST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CST     0.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.10.10.100000.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:06 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.50.70.80.911.11.110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.