Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday March 23, 2017 11:22 AM CDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 2:45PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 1056 Am Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Tonight..East winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. A light chop becoming choppy.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A moderate chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1056 Am Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis..An area of high pressure will build over the mid-atlantic and western atlantic while and area of low pressure develops over the plains through the end of the week. As a result, a moderate to strong onshore flow will develop along with increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 231130 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
630 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance...VFR conditions overnight will become MVFR during
the day on Thursday. Light northeast winds this morning shift to
southeasterly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots Thursday
morning and afternoon. /13

Prev discussion /issued 503 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
near term /now through Thursday night/... An upper level ridge
will build eastward across the central gulf coast today and
tonight. Meanwhile, a sfc ridge of high pressure will build across
the mid-atlantic states and eastern seaboard with an associated
ridge axis building southwestward across the area today. This will
allow an east to southeast flow to develop and increase as the
sfc gradient tightens. The southeast flow will bring increased
moisture into the area, especially eastern areas. This will result
in increasing clouds and the possibility of a very isolated
shower over mainly eastern portions of the area where the best
moisture will reside. However, the coverage is expected to remain
well below mentionable levels and will keep today dry. The
southeasterly flow and increasing clouds will keep temps slightly
cooler today, especially across eastern zones. Highs will range
from the low to mid 70s in the east to upper 70s and low 80s
across the western half of the area. Lows tonight will range from
the mid and upper 50s to around 60 inland to low 60s along the
coast. /13
short term /Friday through Saturday night/... An upper level
ridge axis extending from the western gulf of mexico through the
central gulf coast region and southeastern states early Friday
morning will gradually shift eastward Friday afternoon through
Friday night as an upper level low and associated trough axis
translates eastward across the central and southern plains states.

The surface ridge of high pressure will also shift eastward into
the western atlantic ocean through Friday night as the surface low
advances from the plains toward the mid-mississippi valley region
and the trailing cold front pushes eastward across the arklatex
region and toward the lower mississippi valley. Our forecast area
will largely remain under the influence of the eastward moving
upper level ridge Friday, but weak lift underneath increasing
southwest flow aloft may result in the development of isolated
light rain showers over southeast ms by Friday afternoon. Will
continue to trend high temperatures near or a little above the
warmest guidance values Friday, with forecast readings in the
upper 70s to around 80 over inland areas and mid 70s along the
coast and beaches.

Large scale ascent ahead of the eastward moving upper level
low/trough and the eastward advancing cold front will aid in the
organization of a line of showers and thunderstorms across the
lower mississippi valley region Friday evening. This line will
continue to move eastward across ms and eastern/southern la
through late Friday night, but short range guidance keeps the bulk
of this convection to the west of our CWA prior to 12z Saturday
morning. However, isolated to scattered cells could develop over
southeast ms and adjacent far southwest al overnight Friday night
in advance of this approaching line. We will therefore maintain a
20-30% chance of showers and storms mainly west of a grove hill to
mobile line after midnight. Better instability and shear stays
focused well to our west, so the severe threat late Friday night
appears minimal/unlikely. Lows Friday night should mostly range
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The upper level low will continue to lift across mo during the day
Saturday, while its associated trough axis/surface boundary
progresses eastward from the lower mississippi valley toward the
central gulf coast region. A shortwave trough embedded in the base
of the larger scale trough axis will lift across southeast ms and
into southwest/south central al during through the day Saturday,
aiding in the continued development of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over our region. We will keep the likely
coverage of pops focused over southeast ms and adjacent southwest
al Saturday morning, with increasing coverage spreading eastward
over most of the remainder of the region by Saturday afternoon. A
moist and fairly unstable airmass will be in place across our
forecast area Saturday, though the amount and eastward extent of
instability remains somewhat uncertain. Still, with potential
mlcape values up to between 500-1000 j/kg, 25-35 knots of 850-700
mb flow, and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity, there is
potential for some storms to produce strong to locally damaging
wind gusts Saturday. Isolated severe threat may be most pronounced
generally to the west of i-65 Saturday, where guidance indicates
the best coincident shear and instability, but again the eastward
extent of shear/instability still remains uncertain. The new spc
day 3 outlook places most area within a slight risk of severe
weather Saturday which agrees with this thinking. Will continue to
mention the potential for a few severe storms Saturday in the hwo
and also local graphics. A chance of showers and storms may
linger at least into the evening hours Saturday before a drier mid
level airmass moves in late Saturday night. However, the overall
severe threat diminishes along with decreasing instability and
shear. Highs Saturday should range in the mid to upper 70s, with
lows Saturday night once again mostly in the upper 50s to lower
60s. /21
long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... A drier mid level zonal
flow pattern returns across the forecast area Sunday, though the
ecmwf and to some extent, the GFS indicates residual weak lift
which could support lingering isolated convection. We will
maintain a 20% pop Sunday over most areas. The next in a series of
upper level troughs is progged to translate across the mississippi
valley region Monday. Increasing ascent and sufficient instability
could support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region Monday and Monday night, a few of which could be
strong over the interior. Some uncertainty on the evolution of the
mid level pattern Tuesday-Wednesday, with potential for increased
ridging aloft, but enough instability/weak shortwave impulses
could support at least isolated thunderstorms both days. Will keep
low pops in the forecast both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
should continue to remain quite warm each day through the extended
forecast period, with highs each day averaging in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Marine... An area of high pressure will build over the mid-
atlantic and western atlantic while and area of low pressure
develops over the plains through the end of the week. As a
result, a moderate to strong onshore flow will develop along with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by this weekend.

/13

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am cdt
Saturday for gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi52 min E 1.9 G 6 69°F 69°F1025.6 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi52 min E 8 G 11 71°F 68°F1025.4 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi52 min ESE 8.9 G 12 71°F 69°F1025.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi92 min ESE 16 G 18 69°F 68°F3 ft1023.9 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi27 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F58°F62%1025.6 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi84 minE 10 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F55°F57%1024.5 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi29 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast72°F62°F71%1025.2 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi29 minE 8 G 1510.00 miFair75°F57°F54%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N6S10S11SW9S9S6SE21N6N5N7N6NE8NE7NE6NE7NE8NE8E6E7E9E8E8
1 day agoS11S9SW9SW9
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SW9SW5SW5SW7W5W5W4W5W4SW3W6W4CalmCalmNW5CalmNW7NW4N9
2 days agoSE4S7S10S10S10SW11S9SW5SW5SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW6NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:48 PM CDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.20.20.10-0-0-0.1-0.1-0-000.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.70.50.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.60.70.80.911.11.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.