Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:04PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 10:16 PM CDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1008 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1008 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..An onshore flow increases through Thursday as a front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms increase in coverage on Thursday, then the front moves through early Friday morning with a moderate westerly flow in the wake of the front. An onshore flow returns late this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 282324 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
624 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance...VFR cigs/visbys will drop overnight into ifr
levels overnight as temps cool. Latest guidance is painting best
chance of ifr or lower cigs/visbys east of mobile bay and along
i-10 overnight. Did stick with previous forecast of lower values
over area coastal counties inland from the coast and problematic
western portions of mobile bay. After sunrise, any fog should mix
out quickly and do not anticipate any significant shra coverage
Wednesday.

/16

Prev discussion /issued 350 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
near term /now through Wednesday/... A bit early to see, but see
nonetheless, a coastal sea-breeze boundary being the source of
focus for a few showers and storms along the i-10 corridor over
the northwest florida panhandle. A few of these could linger into
the early evening, but chances are very slim (around 10%) as
instability decreases. Thereafter, chances of rain diminish to
less than 5% thru the remainder of the night.

Short-wave high level ridge moves eastward over the southeast
tonight with surface high from the northern bahamas to the central
gulf coast maintaining a light, warm, and moist southerly flow.

Due to the persistent type pattern, areas of fog likely to re-
develop overnight. Fog could become locally dense in some areas.

Overnight lows also will follow a persistence approach, ranging
from a mild to muggy mid to upper 60s. For Wednesday, look to be
in a transition between weather systems, with little in the way of
rainfall expected and highs ranging in the lower to mid 80s for
much of the local area. /10
short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/... A potentially
significant weather event is still forecast for Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong storm system approaching the region
from the west moves across the area. An upper level trough with
embedded closed low pressure area will advance eastward over the
southern great plains Wednesday night and Thursday. The closed low
is forecast to be over the eastern portions of kansas and
oklahoma Thursday morning and advance eastward, reaching the mid
atlantic states by Friday night. Meanwhile the southern portion
of the trough is expected to swing quicker to the east, aided by a
90 to 110 knot jet streak over the western gulf of mexico, and
possibly become slightly negatively tilted over the region late
Thursday night. A surface low pressure area is expected to be
over eastern oklahoma Wednesday evening and move eastward, also
reaching the mid atlantic states by Friday night. An associated
cold front approaching the region from the west Thursday evening
will sweep through the forecast area after midnight.

A deep southerly wind flow ahead of the system will advect
moisture northward across the region, with precipitable water
values climbing to between 1.5 to 1.8 inches Thursday afternoon
and evening. The severe weather parameters in the GFS and nam
models are similar, and both are higher when compared to the
ecmwf, with MLCAPE values between 700 to 1000 j/kg Thursday
afternoon and evening compared to 300 to 600 j/kg from the ecmwf.

Sfc-1km storm relative helicity values from all models range from
80 to 180 m2/s2. A 35 to 45 knot low level jet is also expected
to accompany this system. Mid and upper level lapse rates are
still expected to be in 7 to 7.5 c/km range. The pre-storm
environment still favors the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms throughout the day Thursday into Thursday night as a
line of numerous storms advances east through the region.

Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all
possible with this system. Heavy rainfall will also occur with
widespread 1 to 2 inches likely, with locally higher amounts.

It will be dry Wednesday night ahead of the system with patchy
fog developing across the area, and dry Friday afternoon through
Friday night in the wake of the cold front.

Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday nights will range from 58
to 62 degrees inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Low
temperatures Friday night behind the cold front will range from 52
to 57 degrees inland areas, with upper 50s along the beaches. Very
warm temperatures will continue on Wednesday with highs ranging
from 82 to 87 degrees inland areas, with upper 70s to lower 80s
along the coastal sections. Slightly cooler high temperatures are
forecast for Thursday and Friday, but still above normal. /22
long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... The dry period will then
persist through much of the weekend as an upper ridge and surface
high pressure dominate the southeast states. Precipitation
chances will increase once again starting Sunday evening as yet
another upper level trough develops to our west and advances east
over the southern plains, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms forecast for Sunday night through Monday night. At
this time it appears there could be some strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms associated with this system, along with heavy
rainfall. Above normal temperatures will continue through the
long term. /22
marine... Surface high pressure to the east maintains onshore flow
thru Wednesday, increasing on Thursday as a front approaches from
the west. Due to the increase and duration of the southerly fetch
Thursday and Thursday night, seas build. Thunderstorms increase
in coverage, bringing locally higher winds, waves, seas and
frequent cloud to water lightning activity. The front looks to
make passage early Friday morning, bringing a moderate westerly
flow during the day Friday in its wake. Onshore flow returns over
the weekend and shows a greater increase by Sunday. /10

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi47 min SSW 8 G 9.9 73°F 76°F1016.5 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi47 min SW 6 G 7 71°F 74°F1016.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi47 min S 6 G 7 70°F 74°F1016.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi87 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 72°F2 ft1015.7 hPa (+0.8)71°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi22 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F91%1017.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi19 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F68°F92%1016.4 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi24 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds74°F73°F97%1016.5 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi24 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F90%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S7S6S5S5SW3CalmCalmCalmSW2SW7SW8S9S13S14
G19
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1 day agoSE5SE4SE5SE5SE4SE3SE3SE5SE3SE8SE7E6SE10SE10SE10SE10SE10S8S11S9S6S7S6S6
2 days agoE6NE6SE7S7S1S5S6S3CalmSE8SE8SE12SE12S12SE11S10SE11S12S9S8S7SE6SE7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:54 AM CDT     0.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:58 PM CDT     0.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:50 PM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:21 AM CDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:59 PM CDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:10 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.60.60.50.40.40.30.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.