Thursday, October19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday October 19, 2017 4:22 AM CDT (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:35AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1030 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..West winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1030 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow will persist through the remainder of the week as a strong surface ridge remains across the southeast states. There is an increased chance of Thunderstorms beginning this weekend as winds turn to the southeast, and a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Seas will gradually increase to around 6 feet by the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 190504 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1204 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

06z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Light northeast winds will generally range between 4-8
knots. 22

Prev discussion issued 401 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
near term now through Thursday ... A relatively dry airmass
associated with a light to occasionally moderate northeast to
easterly surface wind flow will continue tonight and Thursday, as
surface high pressure continues to ridge into the forecast area from
the north and east. Aloft, a developing ridge over texas and the
western gulf of mexico this morning will drift east, with the axis
of the ridge essentially north-south across our forecast area by the
end of the day Thursday. While surface dewpoints will be increasing
slightly through the period, the pattern mentioned above will
maintain an even drier mid level airmass through Thursday. Clear to
mostly clear skies expected through the period with no rain, but
with the slightly increased dewpoints and light wind-clear sky
radiational cooling tonight, could see some patchy light fog (vsby 3-
5 miles), especially interior locations. Lows tonight generally
around the mid 40s over most inland locations, ranging to the mid
and upper 50s closer to the coast, with a few lower 60s at a few
immediate coastal locations (mainly barrier islands). MAX temps a
little warmer on Thursday, reaching upper 70s to near 80 over far
over far northern interior locations, and lower 80s for most
areas closer to the coast. 12 ds
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... Shortwave
energy moving through an upper trough over the western conus
pushes an upper high centered over the northern gulf coast and its
associated upper ridge to the east. By Sunday morning, it ends up
over the east coast, with a digging upper trough moving east over
the plains. This shifting of the upper high ridge pushes a
surface high (and its surface ridge stretching southwest over the
southeast) over the mid atlantic region east, off the east coast.

This shifting the the surface ridge shifts the low level flow from
a general northeasterly to easterly by Saturday morning, the
southeasterly by Sunday morning, bringing back gulf moisture.

For the forecast, the short term portion starts with around
seasonal lows Thursday night, with an upward moderate of
overnight lows as the flow becomes more southeasterly (and
bringing in warmer moister gulf air). By Saturday night, overnight
lows have warmed from general 50s Thursday night (low 60s along
the coast) to general 60s Sunday morn. Highs through the period
remain above seasonal, even with decreasing subsidence, generally
topping out in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday. Some
shortwave energy passing northwest of the forecast area Saturday
into Saturday night brings a return of rain to the area. With the
energy passing to the northwest, best chance of rain will be over
northwestern portions of the forecast area.

long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Sunday into Tuesday,
guidance in general is in pretty good agreement, forecast wise.

Shortwave energy in the plains upper trough swings a bit south
before swinging east, organizing into a close upper low over the
lower mississippi river valley. There are differences in speed and
path, with the GFS digging the low a bit farther south and east
by Monday evening. Both form a surface low over the louisiana
coast Sunday night, then takes it northeast, with the low
crossing the forecast area Monday and post system cooler air
moving over the forecast area Monday night. Am concerned things
could get a bit rough as early as Sunday evening, with decent
instability moisture return ahead of the system and upper level
dynamics with the system passage. Am hesitant to say it will occur
for us, with inconsistency in path and timing in previous runs.

Just will have to keep an eye on things at this point. Best chance
of rain is Sunday night night Monday, with drier air moving over
the area by Monday night. Temps above seasonal expected Sunday
through Monday night, with the cooler air just pushing lows Monday
night closer to seasonal.

Tuesday through Wednesday is where the biggest cool-off is
expected to occur, a second strong shortwave dives into the mean
upper trough set up by the first system. This system is expected
to push significantly cooler air south across the area into the
middle of the coming week. Like upper 60s to low 70s for highs on
Wednesday. Ensemble guidance are hinting a bit warm solution, but
feel it is safe to say below seasonal temps return the end of this

marine... A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind
flow will persist through the remainder of the week as a strong
surface ridge centered over the mid atlantic region influences the
surface flow in the north central gulf of mexico. There's an
increased chance of thunderstorms late this weekend as winds will
become more southeasterly. These winds could generate waves in the 4-
6 foot range. 17 dj

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi53 min 66°F 75°F1020.9 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi53 min ENE 6 G 8.9 66°F 78°F1021.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi53 min ENE 4.1 G 8 65°F 77°F1021.4 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi93 min E 16 G 18 76°F 79°F3 ft1019.8 hPa (-1.5)66°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi28 minNE 510.00 miFair62°F53°F72%1021.6 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi27 minENE 610.00 miFair62°F55°F79%1020.5 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi30 minENE 510.00 miFair69°F57°F68%1020.7 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi30 minNE 310.00 miFair54°F51°F90%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
1 day agoN6N4N5NE10
2 days agoCalmN5N5N7N12N9N9N9N10N12

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Thu -- 02:43 AM CDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:36 AM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.