Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 5:40PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 9:29 AM CST (15:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:21AMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 453 Am Cst Tue Feb 20 2018
Today..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Patchy fog. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 453 Am Cst Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis..A surface ridge over the northeast gulf coast will keep a light to moderate southeast to south wind flow throughout the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 201214 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
614 am cst Tue feb 20 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... Periods of lifr and ifr ceilings across the mobile
metro area will slowly improve this morning into the MVFR
category before noon. Meanwhile,VFR ceilings across the pensacola
metro area early this morning will slowly degrade into the MVFR
category by mid morning. A few showers are forecast to develop
throughout the day, so kept vicinity showers in for all TAF sites
beginning at 17z. Ceilings along the north central gulf coast will
degrade further into the lifr and ifr categories this evening.

22

Prev discussion issued 435 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
near term now through Tuesday night ... Another very warm day in
store across the forecast area with record high temperatures
north of i-10 forecast to range from 78 to 83 degrees, with mid
70s south of i-10. The forecast high temperature for mobile today
is 80 degrees, and the record high temperature is 79 degrees set
just last year. The forecast high temperature for evergreen today
is 82 degrees, and the record high temperature is 82 degrees set
just last year. The forecast high temperature for pensacola today
is 78 degrees, and the record high temperature is 80 degrees set
in 1981. All three locations could see record heat today.

A strong surface high pressure ridge and upper level ridge over
the southeast states and eastern gulf of mexico will persist over
the next 24 hours. A light southerly to southeasterly wind flow
will be maintained across the region along the western periphery
of the surface high pressure ridge. Low level moisture below 850
mb will also remain, with mainly mostly cloudy skies forecast
through the near term.

Isolated to scattered light rain showers are expected mainly this
afternoon and evening due to with boundary layer over-running
occurring on the backside of the surface high pressure ridge in
combination with decreasing stability from surface heating. Patchy
fog early this morning will dissipate by mid morning, and then
redevelop overnight, mainly across the southern half of the
forecast area. 22
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... The upper-level
pattern remains highly amplified to begin the short term, with
deep troughing in the western CONUS and strong ridging over the
southeastern states and western atlantic. Between these features,
a broad region of southwest flow extends from mexico up into
eastern canada, beneath which a surface cold front remains
stalled. Much of the rain associated with this pattern will be
focused along that stalled front and well to our northwest.

However, warm and moist onshore flow, coupled with additional
low-level ascent via a weak pre-frontal trough, will support
scattered shower development across our region throughout the day
Wednesday. While the nose of greatest instability is expected to
remain to our west, model guidance still indicate a modest amount
of destabilization occurring across our area, with around 500
j kg of SBCAPE (200-400 j kg mlcape) developing by the afternoon
hours. Thus, have included a slight chance for some rumbles of
thunder to mix in with the showers Wednesday afternoon. Rain
chances then taper off Thursday as the front begins to lift back
to the north and subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge building
over our area helps to suppress shower development.

Expect temperatures to remain well above normal through the short
term, threatening records both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Highs reach the upper 70s near the coast and low to mid 80s inland
each day. Lows only dip into the mid to upper 60s each night. 49
long term Friday through Monday ... Looks like the upper pattern
finally begins to shift as we head into the weekend and next week.

The blocking ridge that has remained parked over the southeast all
week finally begins to flatten and push south as the deep
troughing over the western CONUS progresses east. The mid-level
ridge sticks around over our area long enough to keep Friday
mostly dry, except for a few isolated showers possible across our
southeast mississippi counties. A potent shortwave digs into the
desert southwest Friday night, triggering rapid lee cyclogenesis
at the surface over western tx ok and forming a surface low over
the south plains by midday Saturday. This low quickly lifts
northeast into the great lakes region by Sunday, dragging another
cold front towards the southeast. With the surface ridge over the
western atlantic weakening and a more progressive pattern
developing aloft, this front should have less difficulty making
its way into our area by late Sunday or early Monday. Ahead of
this front, sufficient moisture and instability develops for
convective showers and thunderstorms. This is followed by a brief
reprieve from the rain Sunday night in the wake of the front. As
we look further into next week, a warm and moist southwesterly
mid-level flow sets up and overruns the shallow pool of cool air
left behind by the front, leading to increasing rain chances once
again Monday into early next week.

Temperatures continue to run warm Friday and Saturday, reaching or
even surpassing record highs each afternoon. Slightly cooler temps
(mid 70s) are expected Sunday as showers and overcast skies help
to mitigate diabatic heating. Temps then finally cool back to
around seasonal (mid 60s) Monday into next week in the wake of
Sunday night's frontal passage. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi48 min ESE 1.9 G 6 73°F 69°F1024.6 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi42 min ESE 19 G 22 70°F 66°F1026.1 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi42 min ESE 11 G 15 71°F 68°F1026.5 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi35 minSE 17 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1025.6 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi34 minESE 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F85%1024.9 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi37 minESE 13 G 2010.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1025.1 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi37 minSSE 9 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds74°F64°F74%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE10SE12S12SE11SE9SE12SE6SE7SE6SE5SE7SE7SE7SE8SE6E6E8E6E10SE9E8E10SE17
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1 day agoS5S5S6S7S8S6S5SW4CalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SE4S5S10S8S5SE3SE6SE9SE7SE13SE9
2 days agoSW7SW10SW8SW9SW8SW11SW7SW7--SW6SW5SW4----CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:01 AM CST     0.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:52 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:17 PM CST     0.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:19 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:27 AM CST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:59 AM CST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM CST     0.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:19 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.