Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:30 AM CST (09:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 3:54AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:201901171545;;472098 Fzus54 Kmob 170341 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 941 Pm Cst Wed Jan 16 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-171545- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 941 Pm Cst Wed Jan 16 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Showers likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 10 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 7 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 941 Pm Cst Wed Jan 16 2019
Synopsis..Light to at times moderate onshore flow returns tonight into Thursday as surface high pressure shifts east of the area. Winds will become strong later Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold front approaches. Behind the fronts passage Saturday night, strong offshore flow is expected. Winds and seas ease Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Light to moderate onshore flow returns Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 170529
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1129 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Light winds and mostly clear skies prevail tonight.

Cloud cover increases and winds shift to southerly around 10
knots tomorrow as scattered light showers move in from the west.

Cigs remain atVFR levels during the morning and afternoon hours
before lowering to MVFR late tomorrow evening. 49

Prev discussion issued 358 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
near term now through Thursday ... Surface high pressure will
shift east of the forecast area overnight into Thursday, bringing
return flow off the gulf of mexico back to the area tonight into
Thursday. Thursday, a weak surface cold front moves towards the
forecast area from the northwest as a weak upper shortwave begins to
pass the area, bringing increasing mid level cloud cover to the
area. Thursday, the best combination of moisture return, upper
dynamics and the position of the surface front remain northwest of
the forecast area for rain development, but close enough to bring
isolated to scattered rainshowers to portions of the forecast area
generally northwest of the alabama river. Overnight tonight,
temperatures begin to rebound with the return of southerly flow,
with around seasonal low temperatures expected tonight (upper 30s
inland to low 40s near the coast). Thursday, the increasing cloud
cover will help to limit daytime heating, but am still expecting
daytime highs (generally 60 - 65) a bit above seasonal norms.

16 sam
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... A cold front will
move into the southeast and stall Thursday night as a stronger system
begins to develop to the west. The front will remain nearly stationary
over the southeastern states through most of Friday, then begin to
move north as a warm front late Friday and Saturday as low pressure
develops across the southern plains and moves east. Only isolated
to scattered pops expected Thursday night into Friday with limited
low level moisture and weak dynamics. Southerly flow will increase
Friday night through the day on Saturday as the low and associated
cold front approach from the west. This southerly flow will transport
deep layer moisture northward across the region, allowing for the
development of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
during the day on Saturday as the cold front moves east across our
area. This will be a fast moving front, therefore rain amounts are
not expected to be excessive.

Models still indicate that instability will be rather weak over
most of our forecast area due to widespread clouds and precip out
ahead of the front, but may have a small pocket of surface based
cape of 330-500 j kg over our coastal counties around midday
Saturday. However, models also still indicate rather strong
vertical wind shear over most of our area, which may allow for a
few higher wind gusts with any stronger storms that develop. The
current GFS is indicating an southwesterly 850 mb jet of 55 knots
to near 65 knots over our northwestern zones around midday. It
appears at this time that the better dynamics are slightly out of
phase with the better instabilities, so while an isolated strong
or severe storm is possible, widespread severe storms are not
expected. Showers and storms end west to east Saturday night.

On Saturday, during the period of strongest onshore flow, will be
looking at a probably high risk of rip currents along area gulf
beaches.

Highs will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday and
Saturday. More of a roller coaster ride for lows, with Thursday
night min temps in the low 50s inland to upper 50s coastal, Friday
night mid 50s to lower 60s. Quite a bit cooler again Saturday
night as the front exits, with lows ranging from the mid upper 30s
northwest counties to the mid 40s coastal areas and southeast
counties. 12 ds
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Cold but dry high pressure
will build east across the area early Sunday through late Monday.

Rainfree and cold conditions are expected during this time. By
Wednesday return flow off of the gulf sets up and a warming and
moistening trend begins. Daytime highs not warming much more than
mid upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday and Monday, then in the mid upper
50s to lower 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coldest night in long
term period will be Sunday night, with lows ranging from the upper
20s over most of the interior north of the i-10 corridor, to the
lower 30s south of i-10 with some mid to upper 30s along the
immediate coast. Nighttime lows gradually warming back into the
40s Monday and Tuesday nights, with a few lower 50s along the
coast Tuesday night. Early in the long term period, a breezy northwest
wind will may it feel even colder than the actual temperatures
are. As temps moderate slightly toward the end of the period, will
also be looking at a gradual increase in low mid level moisture as
return flow develops, along with a chance of rain returning to the
area. 12 ds
marine... Surface high pressure over the area will shift east
overnight, bringing southerly flow back to area waters later tonight
into Thursday. Winds will remain generally light into Friday, then
strengthen later Friday and especially into Saturday as a cold
front approaches the area, becoming moderate to strong Friday
night and strong on Saturday. Seas build in response to the
increasing flow, and we are expecting a small craft advisory to
be issued beginning late Friday night at the earliest. A strong
cold front moves over the area later Saturday into Saturday night,
bringing strong offshore winds to area waters by Sunday. Guidance
is advertising winds behind the front being strong enough for
occasional wind gusts to gale force Saturday night through Sunday,
and with strong cold advection behind the front, am agreeing.

Winds and seas begin to ease Sunday night as surface high pressure
moves towards the area, and return to onshore by Monday night as
the surface high moves east of the area. 16 sam

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi31 min NNW 5.1 G 7 46°F 55°F1025 hPa (+0.6)
PCBF1 41 mi31 min NE 7 G 8 44°F 61°F1024.6 hPa (+0.0)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi31 min N 1 G 1.9 46°F 57°F1024.9 hPa (-0.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi21 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 1024.7 hPa43°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi95 minN 310.00 miFair36°F34°F94%1024 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi95 minN 510.00 miFair36°F33°F93%1023.7 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi38 minN 310.00 miFair43°F41°F93%1024.6 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi38 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F92%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N3N3N5NE5----------SW8SW6CalmCalmCalmNW4NW7NW4CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
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2 days agoN9N8N10N7N10N8NE8N11N9N8N9N8N6N8N7N6N8N7N6N4NW6NW7N7N9

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:54 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM CST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.21.31.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.