Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:53PM Thursday June 21, 2018 3:21 AM CDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:02PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 1004 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1004 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate southwest flow will generally prevail over the marine area through early next week as high pressure ridges westward across the northern gulf. Southwesterly flow will increase Thursday night into early Saturday with a slight build in seas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 210448
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1148 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...VFR conditions and light southwest winds prevail.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during afternoon and
evening hours tomorrow. Stronger storms may be capable of
producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. CIGS vis will be
locally lower in and around heavy downpours as well. Activity
tapers off after sunset withVFR conditions again expected
tomorrow night. 49

Prev discussion issued 358 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
near term now through Thursday ... Currently, upper level high
pressure is centered over the northeastern gulf of mexico, with an
upper ridge stretching north along the mississippi river. An upper
trough stretches south across the central southern plains from an
upper low over the northern plains. A surface ridge stretches north
over the eastern gulf of mexico, over the lower mississippi river
valley and western portions of the southeast. Looking at moisture
levels over the area, analysis' show a band of higher precip h20
levels (>2") stretching southwest across the forecast area attm. A
northward moving seabreeze off the gulf is initiating isolated tsra
along the i10 corridor in this band of higher moisture levels. A
bay breeze moved off mobile bay and is spreading east west from the
bay mobile river.

Looking ahead in time, guidance is advertising our usual summer
progression this afternoon into this evening, with shra tsra
developing inland as the gulf breeze outflow boundaries spread
inland. Coverage is expected to be generally isolated over most of
the forecast area, with a bit of an increase in coverage as one
moves northwest due to less influence from the upper high counter-
balancing the high moisture levels. More activity is expected to
develop south of the coast tonight as a land breeze sets up and
moves south of the coast. For tonight's lows, with the upper
high ridge maintaining control, above seasonal temps continue.

Thursday, guidance is advertising a lobe of energy swinging around
the base of the northern plains upper low, pushing the upper trough
west of the forecast area eastward. With that comes increased cloud
cover and rain beginning to affect western portions of the forecast
area. Helping to limit rain chances east of the alabama river is a
band of drier air (well, precip h20 levels < 2") along the upper
ridge. Guidance is inconsistent with the eastward location strength
of the approaching upper trough, with the GFS the wettest farthest
east, the ECMWF the driest farthest west. Have leaned towards the
middle of the road NAM and added in a bit of the ecmwf, with the
upper ridge remaining a slowing factor to the eastward moving upper
trough. With that in mind, a gradient of pops maxts is in the grids
for Thursday, with higher pops lower maxts northwest, lower
pops higher maxts southeast. Looking at model soundings, enough
instability will be present Thursday for the usual possible strong
to severe storm or two, with stronger winds the primary issue.

Wetbulb "0" heights remain above 14k', so damaging hail will be hard
to realize on Thursday afternoon.

16 sam
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... Broad upper
trough remains over the region through most of the short term
period. This weakness aloft, combined with continued deep layer
moisture in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere will continue
the trend of mostly afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Expect mainly chance pops through
the period, as low level ridging keeps convection scattered in
nature across the area. Will have to monitor for any shortwave
energy rounding the base of the upper trough, as timing and
strength of these potential systems could aid in the development
of slightly better coverages of showers and storms than what we
have advertised. Otherwise, continued summer pattern. Hot daytime
temperatures primarily in the lower 90s through the period, with a
few upper 80s along the immediate coast. Heat index values will
continue to top out in the 100-104 range in many areas each
afternoon. Nighttime lows in the low to mid 70s. 12 ds
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... The upper trough begins to
lift out late on Saturday with upper ridging building back over
the area through Wednesday. This will return the area to a more
isolated to low-end scattered diurnal pop pattern. Highs will
remain in the low 90s with heat index values in the 100-105 range
each day. 12 ds
marine... An approaching upper trough will shift a surface ridge
over the eastern gulf southward, to a westward stretching surface
ridge over the central gulf. Flow remains a light to at time
moderate southwesterly the rest of the week through the weekend as a
result. Upper level high pressure will develop over the northern
gulf coast Sunday night into Monday, bringing weak surface high
pressure over the northern gulf and light and variable winds for the
beginning of the week. 16 sam

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi51 min WSW 2.9 G 6 83°F 86°F1013 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi51 min W 14 G 15 83°F 81°F1013 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi51 min W 8 G 9.9 83°F 87°F1013.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi41 min SW 12 G 14 84°F 1012.9 hPa76°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi26 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F73°F87%1013.4 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi25 minW 510.00 miFair82°F75°F82%1012.3 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi28 minVar 410.00 miFair83°F75°F79%1012.6 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair76°F72°F88%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3NW2NW33CalmCalmCalmS9S8SW9SW6SW7W5NW5SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN2N2N5N5N7N7NE7NE5NE6NE6SW8SW7SW8SW7SW65444CalmW4CalmW3NW2
2 days agoCalm--------NE5NE4S3SE3SE4S3SW7S7S7SW4W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN2NW2

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:33 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:08 AM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:43 PM CDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:33 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:32 AM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.50.50.50.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.60.60.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.