Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:39PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:15 AM CDT (13:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:22PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 407 Am Cdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 407 Am Cdt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis..Surface high pressure extends from the mid-atlantic to the eastern gulf. This continues through midweek, then gradually weakens late in the week as a frontal boundary stalls north of the coast. A light to moderate onshore flow will continue with this pattern through the forecast period. Little change in seas expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 251119 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
619 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018

Discussion See updated information below.

Update Isolated thunderstorms and numerous rainshowers will
pick up in intensity slightly as the morning progresses. Some
storms may produce up to two inches in an hour as they continue
streaming in from the gulf of mexico. We are carefully watching
those raindbands that set up over areas that have had heavier
rainfall in the past 24 hours for localized urban and small stream
and possibly very isolated instances of flash flooding. 23
medlin
for the remainder of today, expect a repeat of yesterday as the
greater rainshower and isolated thunderstorm coverage near the
coast gradually declines in the afternoon and increases further
inland. Coastal showers and thunderstorms will re-develop again
later this evening as the pattern is fairly persistent.

Marine Forecast appears on track as southeast winds 8 to 13
knots persist across the marine areas this morning. Special
marine warnings may later be required if storms further intensify
near the coast. Thunderstorm outflows have generally been holding
around 20-25 knots so far. Seas 1 to 2 feet can be expected this
morning across area bays and waterways with a hard chop and around
2 feet offshore. Southeast swell around 4-5 seconds will be
predominant. 23 medlin

Aviation
12z issuance... Mainly MVFR to occasionallyVFR conditions for
ceiling continues the next several hours as an areas of showers
and thunderstorms continue developing along the coast and moving
inland throughout the morning. Storms will pick up in intensity
slightly as the morning progresses. Expect a repeat of yesterday as
the greater rainshower and isolated thunderstorm coverage near
the coast declines in the afternoon and increases further inland.

Coastal shower and storms will re-develop again later this
evening as the pattern is fairly persistent. OtherwiseVFR with a
persistent light southeasterly wind flow. 23 medlin

Prev discussion issued 454 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
near term now through Tuesday night ... A deeply-reflected and
progressive longwave trough in the nation's mid-section forces a
surface cold front eastward from the upper midwest to the ohio
valley during the period. By the end of the period, the cold front
will have moved to a position from the eastern great lakes to the
tn valley and into N central tx (forced on its southern end by a
southward building anticyclone east of the rockies).

Unfortunately, our region remains in the warm and humid 'soup' and
under the influence of the SW extension of the azores high. This
continues the trend of lower static stabilities (i.E., not much
vertical resistance to weak and subtle upward forcing and hence
multiple rounds of precipitation), high absolute low-level
moisture values (14-15 g kg in sfc-850 hpa layer) and a low-level
converging wind field that keeps showers and isolated
thunderstorms streaming over our region within a persistent
moisture flux convergence axis that remains established over the
next few days. Soundings remain generally near saturated and deep
moist adiabatic (as all three g-16 WV channels show a deep
moisture plume currently flowing over our region). Rainfall
locally heavy at times as isolated showers with little thunder
have been observed and will continue to produce rainfall amounts
up to 2 inches per hour. Today's rain chances 70% most areas with
a 30-40% chance overnight. We will maintain a diurnal component
with higher rain chances over the interior during the afternoon,
but along the coast be prepared at almost anytime over the next
24 hours. Todays highs in the mid- and upper 80s region-wide
(slightly warmer over interior SW and sc al). 23 medlin
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... Upper level high
pressure remains centered off the georgia florida atlantic coast,
with a ridge of high pressure stretching west over the northern
gulf of mexico. This will help to deflect pieces of shortwave
energy northeast across the lower mississippi river valley and
southeast (and generally northwest of the forecast area), and
help to maintain a surface boundary low level convergence zone
that a first round of passing energy has pushed near northwestern
portions of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Guidance has been inconsistent where this boundary stalls
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the GFS advertising the
boundary stalling along the i65 corridor and the NAM and ecmwf
advertising just southeast of the natchez trace. Am leaning
towards the ECMWF nam solution at this point, with most of the
area under southerly flow. This boundary, combined with deep
layer flow off the gulf maintaining high moisture levels (precip
h20 values of 2.0-2.25"), will continue to create a wet forecast
into Friday. With the high moisture levels and training cells
possible, will need to keep an eye out for water issues. At this
point, feel mainly ponding to nuisance flooding issues will be the
main issue, especially over poor drainage issues, but will
continue to monitor. With the rain helping to temper instability,
do not feel issues with wind hail will be an issue. Looking at
temperatures, with the abundant rain and cloud cover, there will
be a decrease in high temps into Friday with the loss of heating.

Overnight lows above seasonal will continue, with high moisture
levels and abundant cloud cover limiting overnight radiational
cooling.

16
long term Friday through Monday ... Guidance begins to diverge
with the handling of the atlantic seaboard upper high, with the
gfs meandering it west over the northern gulf coast and the ecmwf
moving it north. This brings either a return of unseasonably warm
temps and a drier forecast (gfs) or a continued wet and a bit
warmer than seasonal (ecmwf). With either solution possible, and
the ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance showing little spread in their
respective solutions, have bumped the GFS solution towards the
ecmwf as a compromise. The result is temps around 5 degrees above
seasonal and scattered, mainly daytime evening showers and
thunderstorms.

16
marine... A rather persistent marine forecast this period with one
exception. The extension of a surface high pressure system over the
southwest atlantic continues a mostly southeast to southwest wind
flow this period. One brief digression occurs when a cold front
moves into the deep south late Wednesday but then stalls. Winds turn
more southwesterly and lighten somewhat as the front approaches. By
late Thursday night a southeast flow becomes re-established.

There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the
period, however conditions are expected to remain below exercise
caution levels with seas generally 2 feet or less (locally 2-4
feet in gusty thunderstorm outflows). 23 medlin

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi34 min 78°F 84°F1018.8 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi28 min 78°F 85°F1019.1 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi28 min 76°F 85°F1019.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi26 min SE 7.8 G 12 82°F 3 ft1018.2 hPa76°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi21 minNNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F95%1018.8 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi80 minN 010.00 miLight Rain74°F66°F77%1018.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi23 minN 010.00 miRain78°F75°F93%1018.6 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair76°F68°F77%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7E6SE8SE8S10SE7SE7SE7E53N3CalmNE4CalmCalmNE3NE4E3E4NE4CalmN3NE4
1 day agoCalmE8E6SE7S7SE10SE9SE9E10E5E4E4NE3CalmNE3NE3NE3E3NE4E5E4E4E3E5
2 days agoE5E4SE7SE7SE8S7SW7S7S4S6E3SE6E3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE4N3NE3N3NE5E3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.