Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 12:58 PM CST (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 6:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1006 Am Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm cst this afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 18 to 23 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of rain in the evening, then snow and light freezing rain likely after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..North winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday night..Winds light. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1006 Am Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis..Generally light east flow increases and shifts to northerly into this evening behind a strong frontal passage. Strong offshore flow will continue through Wednesday night, then diminish and become more east to southeasterly later this week and over the weekend as high pressure builds east of the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 161728
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1128 am cst Tue jan 16 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... MVFR CIGS visbys will drop through the afternoon
into the evening hours as colder air precip coverage increases.

Shra will gradually see increasing ip fzra mixing in before
finally transitioning over to sn this evening over area TAF sites.

A light ice coverage is possible on equipment this evening. By
sunrise Wednesday, skies will begin to clear out across the area,
withVFR CIGS visbys from there under moderate northerly winds.

16

Prev discussion issued 1121 am cst Tue jan 16 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Surface observations show the strong cold front making
its way across southeast ms and interior portions of southwest al
this morning. Temperatures are already falling into the mid to
upper 30s behind the front. A zone of large scale ascent and
associated wintry precipitation behind the frontal boundary
extends from southeastern tx through much of la ms and into tn.

We have made a few adjustments to the forecast this morning based
on high resolution model guidance and observed upstream trends. We
still expect that the wintry mix of precipitation will arrive in
our far northwestern zones between 1-3 pm, before gradually
advancing to the i-65 corridor by 6-9 pm, then into our eastern
and southeastern counties after 9 pm.

There are some indications, particularly in the wrf-arw and hrrr
that precipitation may become enhanced along the vicinity of the
i-65 corridor this evening and late tonight over our eastern and
southeastern zones. Forecast soundings are supportive of
precipitation starting in the form of a wintry mix of light
freezing rain and sleet, then transitioning to sleet snow, and
perhaps all light snow before precipitation ends. We have
increased snow (and sleet) amounts a bit from the previous
forecast, generally between one half and one inch, with isolated
higher totals. Also added light ice accumulations of less than one
tenth inch (few hundredths) over our southern zones. We will need
to monitor precipitation trends, particularly closer to the
coast southern zones, where forecast soundings trends indicate
potential of light freezing rain and some sleet accumulation prior
to switch over to light snow, which could quickly cause some
travel problems. The winter weather advisory has been extended
across our coastal zones and now includes our entire area. Pops
have been increased across the region, and updates have been sent.

21
prev discussion... Issued 526 am cst Tue jan 16 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... MVFR ceilings gradually move in this morning ahead
of a cold front. The frontal passage occurs from northwest to
southeast late this morning through this afternoon, with winds in
its wake increasing to around 15 knots with higher gusts. Some
light showers, transitioning to a wintry mix, will be possible
along and behind the front this afternoon and evening. Skies then
gradually clear late tonight, withVFR conditions returning
across much of the area towards the end of this forecast period.

49
prev discussion... Issued 511 am cst Tue jan 16 2018
near term now through Tuesday night ... An amplifying upper level
trough over the great lakes rotates across the eastern conus
through the near term period. This pushes a strong cold front
southeast into the deep south and through the local area late this
morning and afternoon. Expect today's highs to be reached ahead
of this frontal passage, as temperatures in its wake will quickly
plummet with the onset of strong cold air advection. A broad area
of large-scale forcing associated with the upper trough will
support a band of precipitation following the frontal passage.

Model guidance continues to indicate these showers beginning as a
wintry mix of rain and snow, then quickly transitioning to all
light snow as temperatures fall below freezing. This band is
progged to reach our interior SE ms SW al counties early this
afternoon, the i-65 corridor between 6pm and midnight cst, and
eventually exit our area to the southeast late tonight. Only minor
snow accumulations are expected, with most only seeing up to half
an inch, though some inland areas could see isolated amounts up
to or just over an inch. A winter weather advisory remains in
effect for all areas along and north of the i-10 corridor from
noon today until 6am cst Wednesday. Given the generally light
accumulations, not anticipating any significant travel impacts
from this system. That said, any localized heavier snow bands will
be capable of producing slick spots on roads, especially on
bridges and overpasses.

A bitter cold night is in store for areas that see skies clear in
the wake of the front. A hard freeze warning is in effect starting
at midnight tonight, generally along and west of i-65 where low
temps will range from the mid teens to around 20 degrees. Elsewhere,
lingering cloud cover will mean lows in the low to mid 20's. One
concern regarding these bitter temperatures is the potential for
black ice early Wednesday morning, as any residual moisture left on
roads will freeze and cause slick spots. Also, the combination of
these temperatures and north winds around 10 to 15 mph will result
in single digit wind chill values for much of the area. Thus, a wind
chill advisory is in effect from midnight tonight until 11am cst
Wednesday. 49
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... A brisk northerly
wind will continue Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong 1040
mb surface high pressure area settles across the lower mississippi
river region. This high will then shift east across the southeast
states Thursday and Thursday night, bringing light and variable
winds to the area. A prolonged very cold air mass will persist
across the region through the short term. As a result, the hard
freeze warning has been extended to include all zones Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A wind chill advisory will also
likely be required Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The upper shortwave will move quickly east of the area Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, with a dry very cold air mass filtering
into the region from the north. This air mass will remain in place
through the remainder of the short term as upper flow becomes
zonal, keeping the area precipitation free.

High temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to reach just above
freezing by mid afternoon despite the sunny skies, ranging from
33 to 38 degrees. Again, these bitter temperatures may result in
the potential for black ice through early afternoon Wednesday, as
any residual moisture left on roads will freeze and cause slick
spots. Low temperatures Wednesday night will range from 13 to 18
degrees, and around 20 degrees at the beaches. Temperatures on
Thursday will reach the mid 40s, falling into the upper teens to
mid 20s overnight. 22
long term Friday through Monday ... The surface high pressure
will continue to move east across the western atlantic late in the
week, but a trailing surface ridge will remain across the
southeast states. An upper level shortwave shortwave will exit the
rockies on Saturday, and move east over the great plains on
Sunday. An associated surface low pressure area developing across
the western high plains late in the week will deepen and lift
northeast toward the western great lakes through Monday, while a
cold front approaches the region from the northwest. These
features will bring widespread rain back to the region early next
week, along with possible embedded isolated thunderstorms. 22
marine... A strong cold front pushes through the marine area this
afternoon, bringing increasing offshore flow and building seas late
today through Wednesday night. A small craft advisory is in effect
from 3pm cst this afternoon until 6am cst Thursday. Winds and seas
then gradually diminish Thursday, with light east to southeast flow
developing by the weekend as high pressure builds over the eastern
gulf. Onshore flow then strengthens late this weekend into early
next week as showers and thunderstorms return ahead of the next
approaching weather system. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday
for alz051>059-261>264.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for alz051>060-
261>266.

Wind chill advisory from midnight tonight to 11 am cst Wednesday
for alz051>060-261>264.

Hard freeze warning from 11 am Wednesday to 9 am cst Thursday
for alz060-265-266.

Fl... Hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday
for flz201.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for flz201>206.

Wind chill advisory from midnight tonight to 11 am cst Wednesday
for flz201-203-205.

Hard freeze warning from 11 am Wednesday to 9 am cst Thursday
for flz202>206.

Ms... Hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday
for msz067-075-076-078-079.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for msz067-075-
076-078-079.

Wind chill advisory from midnight tonight to 11 am cst Wednesday
for msz067-075-076-078-079.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst
Thursday for gmz630>636-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi46 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 49°F1028.4 hPa
PPTA1 36 mi58 min 62°F 1028.8 hPa (-0.3)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi73 min 52°F 1029 hPa40°F
WBYA1 48 mi40 min 56°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 56 mi58 min NNW 13 42°F 1029.8 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi62 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F50°F73%1028.3 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi65 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F48°F63%1028.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi2 hrsS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F45°F54%1028.4 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi62 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast51°F41°F69%1028 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi2.1 hrsESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F42°F58%1030.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi62 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F45°F54%1028.4 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi65 minSSE 710.00 miFair60°F46°F62%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5SW5S3SW3CalmN3N4N4N4N5N5CalmCalmE3NE3NE3CalmE3NE4E3SE7SE8SE7
1 day agoN7NE4NE7NE8NE7N5N5N5NE3N6N5NE4NE5E5NE3NE3N5N5N5NE4E6E4CalmSE6
2 days agoN14
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N15N11N11NE9N10N9N9N9N10NE10E8NE6N9

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM CST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM CST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:20 PM CST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:07 AM CST     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:01 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM CST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM CST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-1.1-1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.20.40.70.91.11.21.21.210.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.