Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:54PM Monday June 26, 2017 3:38 AM CDT (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 256 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth.
Tuesday..Winds light becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 256 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis..A surface front will continue moving south over the northern and central gulf through this morning. In wake of the front, a moderate offshore flow is expected each night through early Tuesday. A light to moderate southerly wind flow will become better developed late Tuesday into Wednesday as a broad surface ridge of high pressure shifts east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through midweek.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 260446 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1146 pm cdt Sun jun 25 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through 27.00z. Could see a
brief period of MVFR CIGS in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast pd. Winds will continue from
the north northeast at 4 to 8 knots through the Mon morning then
shift northeast to east at 3 to 8 knots through Mon afternoon.

32 ee

Prev discussion issued 721 pm cdt Sun jun 25 2017
discussion... See updated information below.

Update... Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to reflect current radar trends across the region and to adjust
pops a tad for later this evening and overnight. Latest hi-res
data conditions to show less coverage of precip for later this
evening and overnight generally inland from the coast, maintaining
scattered coverage along the immediate coast and offshore this
evening then shifting further to the south or offshore overnight
through Mon morning. 32 ee
marine... Did a quick update to the current marine forecast
mainly to reflect current conditions and increase winds from the
north northeast overnight through Mon morning similar to today.

Most of the current model guidance depict a moderate offshore
over the marine area through Mon morning. Seas will range from 2
to 3 ft over the open gulf waters later this evening through mon
morning. 32 ee
aviation...

00z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through 27.00z. Could see a
brief period of MVFR CIGS in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast pd. Winds will continue from
the north northeast at 4 to 8 knots through the Mon morning then
shifting northeast to east at 3 to 8 knots through Mon afternoon.

32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 323 pm cdt Sun jun 25 2017
near term now through Monday ...

forecast not exactly straight-forward in the short term. While a
cold front is forecast to move offshore tonight with weak lower
tropospheric dry air advection, latest satellite and upper air data
indicate a filling upper low that is about to also open up over the
nw gulf of mexico. A very notable southerly wind flow on its east
side is advecting mid and high level moisture back into the
region. We think this will tend to shut off somewhat tonight as
winds in that deep layer go more westerly and advect the moisture
more along and to the rear of the low level front. After dark,
cooling of the land will act to accelerate the low level front's
southern progression once again. Thunderstorms will mainly affect
the i-10 corridor and points further SE through this evening and
then again in the heat of the afternoon tomorrow. Rain chances
will be decidedly lower along the coast tomorrow, but it will not
be totally dry either. Most areas north of the i-10 corridor will
remain dry. Lows tonight could fall to near 60 deg(f) north of the
highway 84 corridor (especially the far northern reaches of
wilcox and choctaw counties of alabama). Highs tomorrow in the
upper 80s. 23 jmm
short term Monday night through Wednesday night ...

the upper trough over the eastern united states will weaken as it
moves offshore the eastern seaboard Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
weak northwesterly flow aloft will aid in advecting slightly drier
air into the region for the short term. Precipitable water values
briefly drop below 1.5 inches across inland areas before quickly
moderating toward seasonal values (between 1.7 and 1.8 inches)
Wednesday.

Overall, I think convective coverage should be limited during the
short term given (slightly) drier boundary layer conditions.

Still, though, some diurnally-driven convection is expected given
mesoscale processes, ample ground moisture, and the continued
presence of a weakness in the upper ridge over the northwestern
gulf of mexico. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, I suspect we'll see
a slightly greater convective coverage Wednesday. 02
long term Thursday through Sunday ...

generally speaking, good agreement within the medium range ensembles
is leading toward better than average forecast confidence for the
long term portion of the forecast.

A large-scale zonal pattern is expected to continue across much of
the country through the end of the week. The previously-mentioned
weakness in the upper ridge, over the northwestern gulf of mexico,
is forecast to retrograde and weaken over the mountains of northeast
mexico. This should allow ridging to rebuild across the southern
part of the country, leading to afternoon temperatures warming
slightly (overall) as soil moisture continues decreasing.

Question then revolves around convective coverage. Increased
subsidence, plus the heavy reliance on mesoscale processes, will
likely result in a lower convective coverage (broadly speaking) for
the long term portion of the forecast. However, a strengthening low-
level ridge, centered in the atlantic off the southeast u.S. Coast,
will allow moisture from the gulf of mexico to increase across the
region during the period. With a southeast to south wind, we'll
likely see at least climatological odds of seeing some diurnally-
driven showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze through the
period. 02
marine...

a cold front moves further south into the marine waters and then
stalls. Surface winds become northeast then east to northeast
through late Monday and increase a bit into the 8 to 13 knot range.

Seas should remain 2 feet or less. Scattered thunderstorms and
rainshowers remain a possibility both ahead of and behind the front
this evening through late tomorrow. 23 jmm

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi56 min 74°F 81°F1019.1 hPa
PPTA1 36 mi68 min NE 8.9 75°F 1019 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 43 mi48 min NE 14 G 16 79°F 82°F2 ft1018.2 hPa (-0.8)67°F
WBYA1 48 mi50 min 80°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi68 min ENE 11 75°F 1018.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 56 mi68 min N 2.9 72°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi43 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds71°F61°F71%1018.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi45 minNNE 710.00 miFair74°F60°F62%1019 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi42 minNE 510.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1017.5 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi42 minNNE 310.00 miFair68°F60°F76%1017.5 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi42 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds71°F65°F83%1019.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi42 minNNE 6 miFair72°F61°F68%1018.9 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi45 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast77°F73°F88%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNW3N3NW4N6N6N7NW6SE12SE4SE5CalmN5N4CalmSE5CalmCalmCalmN8N4N5N4
1 day agoS6S7SW5SW6SW8SW8
G16
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SW8SW8
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SW4SW6SW7SW8SW7SW6SW4SW3SW3CalmSW3W3
2 days agoS11S11S11S11S12S11S14S14S10
G17
S13SE14S12S13--S12S9S7S8S10S9S7S6S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:43 PM CDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.40.60.91.21.51.71.92221.81.61.310.70.40.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM CDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:33 PM CDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.20.10.30.60.81.11.31.61.71.81.81.81.61.410.70.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.