Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

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What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:25PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:09 AM CDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 322 Am Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Today..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 322 Am Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis..An mid and upper level trough of low pressure will extend across the coastal waters today. Surface high pressure over the southwest atlantic waters will extend westward into the eastern gulf of mexico. Moderate southwesterly low level winds will continue through the weekend into early next week before diminishing in intensity as an upper level high pressure builds by the middle of next week. Seas should remain around 2 feet offshore with 1 foot in the bays today into early next week and should gradually diminish to 1 foot or less by mid week. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms can be expected today, becoming isolated to scattered into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191150
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
650 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Discussion Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Prev discussion issued 634 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Aviation
12z issuance... A mix ofVFR and MVFR CIGS will persist through the
forecast period with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
to impact terminals this morning through early this evening. Vsbys
will also be reduced in heavier rainfall. Winds should range from
7-9 kts from the southwest at all terminals, but variable and
gusty in thunderstorms.

Storm coverage should diminish later this evening as skies scatter
out. Low level stratus along with scattered showers and storms may
redevelop late tonight at kpns. Winds should become light
southerly overnight. Jlh

Prev discussion issued 441 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Near term now through Sunday night A middle and upper level
trough will remain across the forecast area today, with deep
moisture in place. Pwats should exceed 2 inches across the entire
region. A low level boundary was stretched across northern
portions of the CWA early this morning with convection developing
in the vicinity of this boundary. In addition, convection is also
developing across the coastal waters, where the atmosphere remains
unstable.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide today,
with the greatest coverage this morning across coastal areas,
shifting inland by late morning and afternoon as instability is
maximized. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning will be possible with any thunderstorms today. High
temperatures should be held down due to enhanced cloud cover and
rainfall, with most locations reaching the middle to upper 80s.

Persistent moderate onshore flow will result in a continuation of
a moderate rip current risk.

Late afternoon convection should gradually shift back towards
coastal areas during the evening, before diminishing in coverage
and shifting into the coastal waters overnight. Convection should
again develop prior to sunrise Monday morning and shift back onto
the beaches through the predawn hours. Jlh

Short term Monday through Tuesday night A strong upper
closed low pressure system over the central great plains Monday
morning will move eastward and evolve into an open wave as it
reaches the lower great lakes region. The southern extension of
the open wave will reach as far as southern louisiana by late
Monday night, and continuing moving east across the region on
Tuesday. An associated surface low pressure system will form
across the central plains by Sunday evening, and then lift east-
northeast across the lower midwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure extending from the western atlantic across the florida
peninsula and gulf of mexico will remain in place, keeping a light
southerly and moist wind flow across the forecast area through
Tuesday evening. A welcome change will occur late Tuesday night
as an upper high pressure ridge builds in from the west, setting
the stage for the beginning of a much drier weather pattern in the
long term.

Will keep numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the
area during the day on Monday and Tuesday, with isolated to
scattered coverage for much of the overnight periods. Additional
widespread rainfall amounts through the short term will range from
0.5 to 1.0 inch, with isolated locations affected by the stronger
thunderstorms picking up to two to three inches of rain. 22

Long term Wednesday through Saturday The upper high pressure
system will continue to build in from the west while a frontal
boundary approaching from the northwest moves into the forecast
area bringing in a drier airmass with pw values dropping from 2.25
inches to 1.25 inches. The GFS is more aggressive moving the
boundary through the forecast area and off the coast by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF hangs the front up across the forecast
area mid week and beyond. Much lower rain chances are forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday with isolated daytime showers and
thunderstorms at best. A gradual return to more seasonable
coverage is expected by late in the week. 22

Marine Southwesterly winds between 8-13 kts can be expected
over the coastal waters today through Monday night. Seas should
average between 1 and 2 feet from just offshore out to 60 nautical
miles. Seas of 1 foot or less can be expected in area bays.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across all of
the coastal waters today, diminishing to scattered coverage
tonight and Monday. Winds, waves, and seas will be higher in and
near thunderstorms. Latest mesoanalysis data as of 11z suggests
moderate values of the non supercell tornado parameter. Building
low level instability and weak shear may support a few morning
waterspouts.

Winds should shift more westerly and eventually northwesterly by
the middle of next week. Wind speeds should gradually diminish as
well, with deep layer high pressure building back over the marine
areas for the middle to end of next week. Seas should lower to
around 1 foot across the offshore waters from next Wednesday
afternoon through the end of next week. Thunderstorm chances
should also gradually diminish by the end of the forecast period.

Jlh

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi45 min WSW 8 G 16 78°F 84°F1017.2 hPa
PPTA1 36 mi39 min 77°F 1016.6 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 43 mi29 min NW 16 G 21 77°F 1017.6 hPa75°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi84 min 75°F 1016 hPa74°F
WBYA1 48 mi39 min 83°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi73 minN 010.00 miLight Rain75°F68°F80%1016.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi76 minSSW 610.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity77°F73°F88%1016.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi73 minSSE 310.00 miLight Rain75°F75°F100%1015.4 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi73 minSSE 310.00 miLight Rain74°F73°F100%1015.4 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi73 minWSW 37.00 miLight Showers Rain76°F71°F87%1017.5 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi76 minNW 7 G 141.25 miRain78°F73°F85%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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NW3CalmCalmS6SW6SW7SW5SW3SW2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalm
1 day agoS4S3E5S7S5S8S8----S9SW4SW5SW4S6S3S4S3S6S4SW3--CalmNE5N13
G17
2 days agoS4W3S5S11SE14SE14S13S9S5S6S8CalmCalmS8S9S6SE4SE5S3N4CalmCalmS4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM CDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 PM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.31.41.61.71.81.81.81.71.61.41.210.90.70.60.50.40.40.40.50.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:37 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:52 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.61.61.61.61.51.31.210.80.70.50.40.40.40.40.40.50.60.70.911.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.