Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 11:44 AM   Moonset 1:08 AM

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GMZ655 Expires:202405150330;;199902 Fzus54 Kmob 141507 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 1007 am cdt Tue may 14 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-150330- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 1007 am cdt Tue may 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: south 6 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 4 seconds and south 2 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 1007 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southwesterly winds - .occasionally stronger well offshore - .become west to northwest tonight. A light northerly flow develops Wednesday night then becomes southerly on Thursday. A moderate southerly flow is expected on Friday, then a light to moderate southwesterly flow follows for Saturday.

FXUS64 KMOB 141133 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 633 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Back edge of precipitation aligned along the Gulf coast from Baldwin county eastward to the western FL Panhandle will continue a slow eastward translation this morning. Cig bases generally at MVFR categories. Vsby ok. /10

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Radar shows axis of precipitation is making headway to the east and with the threat of flooding rainfall ending, the flash flood watch has been cancelled. A wake low is forecast to move across the deep south this morning which will contribute to a short term duration wind event, mostly impacting the coastal counties where winds will likely gust to wind advisory criteria. The wind advisory goes to noon and expect winds to decrease into the afternoon as the low moves away. Cold front makes passage tonight with drier air filtering in across the forecast area. Wednesday is rain-free.

Daytime highs in the lower/mid 80s today warm into the mid/upper 80s Wednesday. Overnight lows in the lower half of the 60s interior and in the lower 70s closer to the coast. /10

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The dry weather pattern will persist through Thursday as an upper ridge to our west slips eastward over the southeast states. The next storm system will move in from the west Thursday night and an upper trough over the Great Plains shifts slowly eastward.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across the forecast area through the overnight period as several upper disturbances moving in the west-southwest flow aloft brings a round of elevated convection.

Low temperatures Wednesday night will be near to slightly above normal, ranging from around 60 degrees well inland to near 70 degrees along the coast. Low temperatures Thursday night will trend warmer to be 4 to 9 degrees above normal, ranging from around 65 degrees well inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
High temps on Thursday will be around 3 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Along the beaches, a Moderate rip current risk will occur through the short term. /22

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The southern stream remains active as the aforementioned upper storm system with more rounds of shortwave energy traverse over our region through the remainder of the week. Increased ascent along with deeper Gulf moisture returning in the lower levels will resulting in an increase in showers/storms for Friday. There are some indications of yet another heavy rain event possibly setting up to close out the week. As far as strong to potentially severe storms, guidance points to Friday. All depends on position of the warm-front late in the week, but at this moment it appears SBCAPE values on Friday should be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range along with marginal shear with Bulk Shear values in the 45 to 55 knot range.
This may result in a few marginal to isolated severe storms that we will need to be monitoring for.

Daytime highs Friday and Saturday will be near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 80s. Highs temperatures trend warmer early next week to be 2 to 7 degrees above normal into the upper 80s to lower 90s. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A short duration strong wind event is expected over area waters through mid morning with a wake low passage. Wind gusting to gale force likely. A cold front makes passage tonight and with a weak pressure pattern following, winds and seas lower going into the middle of the week. The next weather system approaches late in the week, bringing moderate onshore flow and a return to rain chances. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 84 65 88 64 87 69 85 71 / 30 10 0 0 10 40 70 40 Pensacola 82 70 87 67 86 73 84 74 / 70 20 0 0 10 30 60 50 Destin 81 72 85 70 84 74 83 75 / 70 20 0 0 10 20 60 50 Evergreen 83 63 87 61 89 66 85 67 / 40 20 0 0 0 40 80 60 Waynesboro 83 61 86 61 88 65 82 66 / 30 10 0 0 10 50 80 40 Camden 82 62 85 60 87 66 81 66 / 50 20 0 0 0 50 80 60 Crestview 81 65 88 62 90 66 87 70 / 70 20 0 0 0 20 70 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for ALZ261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-650-655- 670-675.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632- 634-650-655-670-675.

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