Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tallahassee, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:39PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:07 PM EST (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:02PMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 301 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
.small craft operators should exercise caution through Friday...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of rain and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Rain and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday and Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday and Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 301 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis.. Strong southeasterly winds at 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 34 knots will become southerly and fluctuate around 20 knots on Friday and then become southwesterly Friday night as they gradually fall below 20 knots. Between the winds and the swell, wave heights may remain elevated through Saturday. By Sunday, we'll return to more normal conditions with winds below 15 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tallahassee, FL
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location: 30.46, -84.25     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 131945
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
245 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Near term [through Friday]
Upper low over texas is currently in the process of cutting off
from the northern stream flow. This upper low will travel east
along the northern gulf coast tonight before lifting northeastward
across the southeastern states late on Friday. Strongly diffluent
flow out ahead of the upper low will support a large area of rain
and isolated thunderstorms, which will spread across the local
area tonight through Friday. A warm frontal boundary will develop
near the coast overnight tonight, helping to enhance lift as
strong southerly low-level flow rides up and over. The upper
system will become vertically stack fairly quickly on which may
slow down the exit of the precip Friday evening. Overall rainfall
totals are expected to be in the 3 to 4 inch range along a
corridor including apalachicola, tallahassee, valdosta, and perry.

A few isolated totals up to 6 inches are not out of the question.

Given the recent above normal rainfall, have issued a flash flood
watch for roughly the eastern half of the forecast area.

Initially, instability will have difficulty making much inland
penetration, with the severe threat tonight confined to the
immediate coastal areas and offshore waters. However, low-level
shear will be quite impressive, so cannot rule out an isolated
rotating storm or two moving inland. After daybreak on Friday,
there may be some better inland pentration of unstable air across
the eastern big bend into south central georgia. Low-level shear
will continue to be quite strong (0-1km bulk shear of 40-50
knots), so a few severe storms will be possible. The main threat
will be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

Short term [Friday night through Saturday night]
The upper low will lumber northeastward Friday night with the
surface cold front not expected to clear the forecast area until
early Saturday morning. Therefore, could see some scattered
showers linger during the overnight hours. The airmass behind this
system is not all that cold, so not expected a significant cool
down on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 60s for most
areas.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
A low level ridge will begin to slowly build eastward on Sunday,
with mostly zonal flow directly aloft of our area. After about
Monday, the model solutions spread apart. Either the next system
approaches Wednesday night (euro solution) or we'll remain in a
relatively quiet pattern locally (gfs solution which keeps storms
offshore). Tended closer to the euro solution, with our next good
chance (20-30%) for rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Lows will be
in the 40s to low 50s. Highs will be in the 60s.

Aviation
[through 18z Friday]
cigs will gradually lower from west to east overnight, with ifr to
MVFR conditions, along with widespread rain, expected by Friday
morning. Gusty winds are expected by late tonight as strong winds
just off the deck mix down to the surface.

Marine
Strong southeasterly winds at 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 34 knots
will become southerly and fluctuate around 20 knots on Friday and
then become southwesterly Friday night as they gradually fall below
20 knots. Between the winds and the swell, wave heights may remain
elevated through Saturday. By Sunday, we'll return to more normal
conditions with winds below 15 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Given all the recent rains, and the potential that this storm system
could bring period of heavy rainfall, a flash flood watch has been
issued for much of the region, generally along and east of a line
from panama city to albany where the heavier totals rates are
expected.

While most river points are currently falling at this time, rivers
are well above normal with many points in action stage ahead of the
next storm system. River forecasts issued today are based on 3-4
inches of rainfall across the eastern half of the region, which will
result in numerous forecast points rising back into at least minor
flood stage this weekend and into next week. Of greatest concern in
the short term is for the chipola river at altha to move back into
higher end moderate flooding and then the potential for portions of
the ochlockonee river to reach moderate flood stage.

For the suwannee river, downstream of ellaville, future flood
severity is strongly tied to upstream rainfall distribution with
this incoming storm system. While there is likely enough water
already in the suwannee basin to result in minor flooding in the
coming days at luraville, branford, and wilcox, the addition of
another 3-4 inches of rain across the upper suwannee basin would
result in forecast points at ellaville and dowling park reaching
minor flood stage as well. Heavier upstream rainfall amounts could
potentially result in luraville moving toward the moderate flood
level late next week.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 59 69 57 67 47 100 100 40 20 0
panama city 62 69 57 63 48 100 90 40 20 0
dothan 55 67 51 59 44 100 90 40 20 0
albany 55 66 56 62 45 100 100 50 20 0
valdosta 58 68 58 67 47 90 90 70 20 10
cross city 62 71 60 69 51 80 90 70 30 10
apalachicola 62 69 59 67 50 100 100 40 20 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Flash flood watch from 7 pm est 6 pm cst this evening through
Friday evening for calhoun-coastal bay-coastal dixie-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-coastal jefferson-coastal
taylor-coastal wakulla-gadsden-inland bay-inland dixie-
inland franklin-inland gulf-inland jefferson-inland taylor-
inland wakulla-jackson-lafayette-leon-liberty-madison-
washington.

High rip current risk through Saturday evening for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... Flash flood watch from 7 pm est this evening through Friday
evening for baker-ben hill-berrien-brooks-colquitt-cook-
decatur-dougherty-grady-irwin-lanier-lowndes-miller-
mitchell-seminole-thomas-tift-turner-worth.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Saturday for coastal waters
from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20
nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton
county line fl out 20 nm-waters from suwannee river to
apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from apalachicola
to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from mexico
beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Camp
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Camp
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 28 mi73 min E 4.1 G 8.9 60°F 58°F1017.7 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 56 mi67 min E 9.9 G 12 65°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.1)55°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tallahassee - Tallahassee International Airport, FL7 mi74 minE 810.00 miOvercast64°F53°F68%1018.1 hPa
Quincy Municipal Airport, FL19 mi72 minE 410.00 miA Few Clouds61°F51°F72%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from TLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4E4E5E7E3E6E7E7E5E9E7E9E9E6E8E6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalm3S4S5
2 days agoNW8NW9N8NW6W5W4NW6NW6W6NW6NW7NW9NW6NW6NW6NW9NW8N8N8N7N63CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida
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St. Marks
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Thu -- 12:06 AM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:52 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:01 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.622.42.52.52.31.91.410.60.30.30.40.91.422.32.52.42.21.81.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:36 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:25 PM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.72.12.52.72.72.52.11.61.10.70.40.30.50.91.422.42.72.62.42.11.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.