Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Garcon Point, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:43PM Sunday September 24, 2017 7:22 AM CDT (12:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 9:49PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 450 Am Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Today..East winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 450 Am Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis..High pressure ridging into the marine area from the north will continue through most of the period, with light to occasionally moderate easterly flow continuing. Winds and seas highest today, before subsiding early to middle next week and then increasing again late in the week. An offshore flow is expected to develop in the wake of a frontal passage toward the end of the forecast period, with northerly winds and seas then building into the latter part of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garcon Point, FL
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location: 30.47, -87.13     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 241138
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
638 am cdt Sun sep 24 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

24 12z issuance... GeneralVFR CIGS visbys expected through much of
the forecast period, but another round of shra tsra are expected
across the area today. Shra tsra offshore at the beginning of the
period this morning, developing inland and becoming numerous in
some locations by this afternoon. This convection will bring
ceiling and visibility drops to MVFR levels, and briefly ifr in
some locations. Locally strong gusty surface winds possible near
the thunderstorms, some small hail also possible. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 441 am cdt Sun sep 24 2017
near term now through Sunday night ... Water vapor imagery indicates
mid-upper low spinning over the gulf coast region, generally
centered over our forecast area. Models are in good agreement that
this upper low will drift slowly west through tonight and be
situated just to the west of our local area by late tonight. As this
low migrates to the west, associated mid-upper level wind flow will
become more more southerly across the forecast area, with deeper
layer moisture increasing through tonight. This trend of increasing
moisture is already noted in differences between profiles of 24 00z
and 24 06z soundings at both lix and bmx (as both offices did 24 06z
soundings in support of nhc). GFS indicates that pwat's will
increase to near 1.9 inches across much of the forecast area by late
this afternoon and tonight. With this abundant moisture, combined
with daytime heating and instability (with SBCAPE approaching 2500
j kg over southern third of forecast area this afternoon), expect
showers and storms to be more numerous today than past several days
(especially over southern half of forecast area). As the deeper
layer flow switches from northeasterly to more southerly with
movement of the mid-upper low, storm motion is expected to be more
to the west across the area today as opposed to the storms moving in
from the northeast as they have over the past few days. The
increasing deep layer moisture, will somewhat limit downdraft
potential today, although storms will continue to have the potential
for strong gusty winds up to around 35 or 40 mph. Evening upper air
analysis indicate 500 mb temps still in the -10c to -11c range over
much of the area (in association with upper low). This will continue
to result in the potential that some of the stronger storms that
develop today will be capable of producing small hail (pea to nickle
sized), as has been the case for the past several days. Potential
for severe storms is low, but one or two isolated severe storms
could be possible this afternoon. Any lingering convection will
diminish during the early evening hours with the loss of daytime
heating and instability. As has been the case for the past several
nights, there could again be some patchy light fog tonight,
especially for those areas that receive rainfall today. Surface
high pressure ridging in from the northeast will continue to
maintain a light, predominately east wind flow across the region
today, with a slight southeasterly component near shore this
afternoon in association with the sea breeze circulation. Highs
today in the upper 80s over most of the interior, and mid 80s
along and near the coast. Lows tonight expected to range from the
upper 60s over most of the interior to the low to mid 70s near and
along the coast. 12 ds
short term Monday through Tuesday night ... To start the short
term, mid-upper low transitions to a negative tilt shear
zone trof positioned from ar to the central gulf coast on Monday.

Considering the orientation of the trof axis, deep layer ascent
operating on presence of deep layer moisture (pwats 1.7 to 1.9
inches) and daytime instability favors a modest chance of storms
during the day Monday. Some of the storms could become locally
strong, producing brief strong wind gusts, locally heavy rains,
frequent lightning and possibly some small hail. High level trof
axis pushes southeast Tuesday, becoming more aligned across the
northern gulf as hurricane maria lifts northward east of the mid-
atlantic coast. A net lowering in deep layer moisture over the
interior northeast, combined with increased subsidence on the
southwest side of maria's large scale circulation suggest chances
of showers and storms will be on low side (10% or less) along and
north of a line from waynesboro ms to crestview fl Tuesday.

Forecasters call for a slight chance of storms south of this line
where better moisture lingers. Daytime highs 85 to 90 on Monday
and upper 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday. Overnight lows in the mid
to upper 60s interior to lower to mid 70s beaches. 10
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... A narrow mid level ridge
builds over the forecast area into the middle of the week which
would increase larger scale sinking motions and little to no
convective activity. A frontal boundary drops southward over the
lower ms river valley Thursday, making passage into the northern
gulf Friday. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and
Thursday trend lower to end the week, settling lower by a category
or two Saturday with highs ranging from 80 to 85 to start the
weekend. Coolest overnight lows in the outlook is Saturday morning
with numbers ranging from the lower to mid 60s along and
northwest of i-65. 65 to 70 at the beaches. 10
marine... High pressure ridging into the marine area from
the northeast will continue through most of the forecast period,
with a primary light to occasionally moderate easterly wind flow
continuing over the marine area. Still expect a slight offshore
component during the late night and early morning hours and a slight
onshore component during the afternoon and early evening hours. Flow
near or just below exercise caution levels today as gradient
tightens between high pressure to the north and hurricane maria
making its closest approach to the east coast of florida. Flow
relaxes once again by Tuesday as maria continues to move up the
atlantic east coast, weakening the ridge to the north. Winds
become lighter and more variable early Wednesday before becoming
more northerly and increasing by Thursday in the wake of a cold
frontal passage. Seas initially around 3 to 4 feet, decreasing to
1 to 2 feet in the middle part of the forecast period, then
increasing once again late in the period in the wake of the front.

12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 6 mi52 min 76°F 84°F1014.1 hPa
PPTA1 26 mi52 min NE 7 77°F 1013.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 36 mi92 min E 12 G 14 81°F 83°F2 ft1012.6 hPa (+0.6)74°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 37 mi97 min 71°F 1013 hPa69°F
WBYA1 37 mi52 min 83°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 45 mi52 min N 2.9 71°F 1013.5 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 47 mi82 min ENE 14 77°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL4 mi29 minENE 610.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1014.1 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL13 mi26 minNE 8 miThunderstorm74°F69°F85%1013.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL17 mi26 minENE 710.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1013.2 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL18 mi26 minNE 510.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1013.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL24 mi26 minNE 610.00 miFair73°F67°F85%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
1 day agoNE4E5E5E5E555SE9SE8SE9S8S4CalmCalmNW3N4N4N5N6N3N3N3NE5NE4
2 days agoN3N5N6E54SE8CalmS7SW7S6S6SW6S3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3NE3NE3CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
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Sun -- 01:56 AM CDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:23 PM CDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Sun -- 01:20 AM CDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:20 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.